COE Bidding – Feb 2025

[Throttle2]

  On 2/6/2025 at 11:21 PM, Kar_lover said:

EV resale value CMI one. My friend iX3 bought at $265k, after one year only can get around $220k...

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So high? Wow, very good.  Its probably becos the COE shot up in his favor otherwise impossible.

[Throttle2]

  On 2/7/2025 at 5:06 AM, Kar_lover said:

Ya exactly. When u want sell car they will say mileage high la, ownership count high la, YOM old la.... but when they are the one selling - high or low mileage, 1 or 4 owners, recent or old YOM also the price more or less the same 😂

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Same as property agents.  Flip according to whichever side they are on.

only a fool trusts his car dealer or prop agent

Muayhahahaha.

[Lethalstrike]

  On 2/6/2025 at 11:50 PM, RadX said:

At this point, no need to fan the whimsical folks la...they can whine for all they want.  merely seeking self justification for all and for the others, a sense of just following the crowd....there will be fanboys........seems like we gg back to the old 'honda vs toyota' days...

 

ppl that realy whine abt resale value shdnt buy Ev in the first place.....and shows the small gas mindset

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In EU and US, used EVs are now great value versus new. Over here, even if one buy a used EV, depreciation just slightly lesser vs a new one. 

LPPL just buy new and accept the fact EVs should have a straight line depreciation from 1st year down to its 10th year with little PARF due to rebates clawbacks.

Can accept, just change. Cannot accept, buy a hybrid or a normal petrol engine car la.  

[Fitmugen]

Personally I think EV ownership in Singapore will plateau or even drop in spite of the hype. Maybe already starting looking at the number of used EVs on Sgcm.

The hassle of charging will eventually catch up with you. Initially you think it’s fun, powerful, imagine yourself to be Captain Planet. But when u start to reminisce your ICE car days…

I have an EV and am lucky enough to have access to a dedicated charger (even though don’t stay landed). But I had those days when you dread going to charge at public chargers, finger crossing the charger would not be occupied even though I just checked 5 minutes ago it’s available. And then the 30 minutes DC charging. Walk to the supermarket even though have nothing to buy.

 

Edited February 7 by Fitmugen

[Good_man]

This is also the reason I choose Hybrid and not EV, just do not want to change the routine.

  On 2/7/2025 at 11:46 AM, Fitmugen said:

Personally I think EV ownership in Singapore will plateau or even drop in spite of the hype. Maybe already starting looking at the number of used EVs on Sgcm.

The hassle of charging will eventually catch up with you. Initially you think it’s fun, powerful, imagine yourself to be Captain Planet. But when u start to reminisce your ICE car days…

I have an EV and am lucky enough to have access to a dedicated charger (even though don’t stay landed). But I had those days when you dread going to charge at public chargers, finger crossing the charger would not be occupied even though I just checked 5 minutes ago it’s available. And then the 30 minutes DC charging. Walk to the supermarket even though have nothing to buy.

 

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[mersaylee]

One two whine donch buy

One two buy donch whine 

Coe too hai...ccb...

Kbye...😁

[10sec]

@Fitmugen  Bro, does the road tax for EV costs more?

[Fitmugen]

  On 2/8/2025 at 3:31 AM, 10sec said:

@Fitmugen  Bro, does the road tax for EV costs more?

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Yes u can check on one motoring

[Lethalstrike]

  On 2/7/2025 at 11:46 AM, Fitmugen said:

Personally I think EV ownership in Singapore will plateau or even drop in spite of the hype. Maybe already starting looking at the number of used EVs on Sgcm.

The hassle of charging will eventually catch up with you. Initially you think it’s fun, powerful, imagine yourself to be Captain Planet. But when u start to reminisce your ICE car days…

I have an EV and am lucky enough to have access to a dedicated charger (even though don’t stay landed). But I had those days when you dread going to charge at public chargers, finger crossing the charger would not be occupied even though I just checked 5 minutes ago it’s available. And then the 30 minutes DC charging. Walk to the supermarket even though have nothing to buy.

 

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Yes, definitely will plateau.

As of 2024, about 4% of passenger cars (26,225) are EVs out of total passenger car population of 657,744. I'm of the opinion that Singapore's eventual sweet spot should be 18% EVs and the remaining ICE (Plug-in hybrids, mild hybrids, normal petrol, full hybrids etc). Why?

LTA's target by 2030 is 60,000 public charging points. So, assuming zero vehicle growth policy doesn't change and we still have around 660k passenger cars in 2030, 120k EVs (about 18.2% of 660k) sharing 60,000 charging points is about 2 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. Factor in the EV commercial vehicles and taxis sharing the charging points it should still be manageable, since not everyone needs to charge every day at the same time. 

But LTA's official plan is 5 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. That means they're looking at growing the EV population to 300,000. They are even more aggressive, aiming at 50% to be EVs. I honestly think at 5:1 ratio, we're going to see a lot of ugly behaviour and fighting for charging points already 😅

Edited February 9 by Lethalstrike

[Benarsenal]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:52 AM, Lethalstrike said:

Yes, definitely will plateau.

As of 2024, about 4% of passenger cars (26,225) are EVs out of total passenger car population of 657,744. I'm of the opinion that Singapore's eventual sweet spot should be 18% EVs and the remaining ICE (Plug-in hybrids, mild hybrids, normal petrol, full hybrids etc). Why?

LTA's target by 2030 is 60,000 public charging points. So, assuming zero vehicle growth policy doesn't change and we still have around 660k passenger cars in 2030, 120k EVs (about 18.2% of 660k) sharing 60,000 charging points is about 2 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. Factor in the EV commercial vehicles and taxis sharing the charging points it should still be manageable, since not everyone needs to charge every day at the same time. 

But LTA's official plan is 5 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. That means they're looking at growing the EV population to 300,000. They are even more aggressive. I honestly think 5:1 we're going to see a lot of ugly behaviour and fighting for charging points already. 

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The ratio of privately owned cars and PHV will shift significantly in the next few years. And PHV will be partly influenced by policy to go towards EV.

[Roh96]

@Bezbee share leh, what is the CNY offer from Mercedes? What is the price for CLA, GLA, GLB, C180?

[Mkl22]

  On 2/9/2025 at 3:52 AM, Lethalstrike said:

Yes, definitely will plateau.

As of 2024, about 4% of passenger cars (26,225) are EVs out of total passenger car population of 657,744. I'm of the opinion that Singapore's eventual sweet spot should be 18% EVs and the remaining ICE (Plug-in hybrids, mild hybrids, normal petrol, full hybrids etc). Why?

LTA's target by 2030 is 60,000 public charging points. So, assuming zero vehicle growth policy doesn't change and we still have around 660k passenger cars in 2030, 120k EVs (about 18.2% of 660k) sharing 60,000 charging points is about 2 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. Factor in the EV commercial vehicles and taxis sharing the charging points it should still be manageable, since not everyone needs to charge every day at the same time. 

But LTA's official plan is 5 EVs to 1 charging point ratio. That means they're looking at growing the EV population to 300,000. They are even more aggressive, aiming at 50% to be EVs. I honestly think at 5:1 ratio, we're going to see a lot of ugly behaviour and fighting for charging points already 😅

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LTA never known for getting anything right. If they do, then you will see them blowing their own trumpets till the blasted trumpet breaks. 
I bet they gonna screw up again. It’s the norm for them. No screw up means they not LTA. 

[Terence2112]

@Kar_lover ix3 for 265k? Sure anot…. He smoke you is it. This price is impossible if brand new. 
 

 

[Koster]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:44 AM, Roh96 said:

@Bezbee share leh, what is the CNY offer from Mercedes? What is the price for CLA, GLA, GLB, C180?

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https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1047916437373316&id=100064649081564

[13177]

  On 2/9/2025 at 6:53 AM, Mkl22 said:

LTA never known for getting anything right. If they do, then you will see them blowing their own trumpets till the blasted trumpet breaks. 
I bet they gonna screw up again. It’s the norm for them. No screw up means they not LTA. 

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Likely will create social problem down the road with their brilliant EV plan. Everyone is fighting for charger point.

[Kar_lover]

  On 2/9/2025 at 7:01 AM, Terence2112 said:

@Kar_lover ix3 for 265k? Sure anot…. He smoke you is it. This price is impossible if brand new. 
 

 

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Yes brand new, he got no reason to smoke me....want to smoke also should smoke higher not lower right?

[Invigorated]

  On 2/9/2025 at 11:56 PM, Kar_lover said:

Yes brand new, he got no reason to smoke me....want to smoke also should smoke higher not lower right?

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The First-Ever BMW iX3 Retails at S$252,888 in Singapore 

link

yes u are right, he probably bought it near launch.

Edited February 10 by Invigorated

[Wildfaye29]

https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/industry-veterans-verdict-rising-supply-likely-to-push-down-coe-prices

Industry veteran’s verdict: Rising supply likely to push down COE prices

Research done by the writer shows clear link between supply and prices.

Victor Kwan UPDATED Feb 15, 2025, 02:21 PM

Singapore and Singaporeans have had a complex relationship with the certificate of entitlement (COE) for more than three decades. Everyone has a view on it. Here are mine – having spent 24 years in the automotive industry. In a nutshell, I believe the drop in COE prices is likely to continue, even though others may tell you the opposite. Let me explain why.

I remember that tense afternoon meeting some time in 2012. I was then the managing director of a Singapore-based automotive dealer group and was caught in the middle of a gut-wrenching professional roller-coaster ride akin to those at Disneyland. Except it was worse. My ride lasted years and not mere minutes. You see, COE supply was at a record low at that time. For an automotive dealer, this meant a minuscule market size, high COE prices, plummeting sales volume and even retrenchment. To make matters worse, things had been completely opposite just a few years prior – supply at a record high, the prices low and businesses expanding.

Amid this unhappy thrill ride, I was invited to a meeting with the Land Transport Authority. Given the unfavourable situation at that time, they were keen to hear the grouses from the ground. And grouse I did. These peaks and troughs in COE supply are unhealthy for the country’s transport system, not just commercially but socially as well, I said.

I proposed that LTA policymakers take the forecasted abundant COE supply from future years and insert some of it into the here and now. Not only would this solve our immediate supply pain, it would also prevent future roller-coaster rides. In other words, my proposal would allow all of us to live happily ever after (at least with car ownership) in one fell swoop. As history shows, my suggestion was not taken and our COE supply went through another peak about four years later and trough afterwards.

Fast forward a decade and you can imagine my smugness when LTA announced their “cut and fill” policy in May 2023. For the uninitiated, the mechanisms of cut and fill are broadly similar to what I had proposed in that meeting – that is, bringing forward future COEs to increase current availability and smooth future supply. As the proverbial saying goes, “better late than never” and kudos to LTA for that. A year later, they made another announcement that an additional 20,000 COEs, on top of those from cut and fill, will be gradually released.

Simple supply and demand

Since these two announcements, 18,000 COEs for cars and 3,000 for motorcycles have been brought forward. With this increase in supply, COE prices have also fallen an average of 25 per cent across the board, for cars, motorcycles and commercial vehicles (see chart).

To prevent speculation, few details have been revealed on when the additional COEs will be released. But one key message has been made official – the authorities will be using these new policies to ensure a consistent increase in supply of passenger and commercial vehicle COEs until the peak year of 2026.

In my current role as a faculty with the Singapore University of Social Sciences, I recently worked with a colleague to utilise an XAI-Enabled Deep Learning Approach and 20 years of public data on COE bidding to analyse past COE price fluctuations. Unlike other auctions that display evidence of irrational consumer behaviour, we conclude that COE prices closely follow the classical law of supply and demand. This means that when supply increases, prices will almost certainly follow a downward trend. In other words, the 25 per cent drop in prices since 2023 is likely to continue.

Don’t listen to fearmongers

However, the COE price is one of Singapore’s favourite coffee shop conversations – often spiced up with a generous dose of conspiracy theories – and there are more armchair analysts with “expert” views than at a Premier League football match. I have sat through a lifetime worth of these coffee shop talks and feel that many of these analysts with contrasting views are frequently fearmongers, Mr Always-Right or procyclical thinkers with little statistical basis.

In a way, I was a target of such irrational COE fearmongering when I was a young executive overseeing sales for a Korean car brand. When COE prices were high, a number of panic prophets warned me that nobody would buy Korean cars as prices were too high. And when COE prices were low, the same doomsayers cautioned that nobody would buy Korean cars as competitors were now able to price themselves competitively. If I had listened to them, I would have slipped into a depression, left the business and gone into selling Matchbox cars that need no COE. Thankfully, I did not and that Korean brand has since grown from strength to strength.

There is another funny story of a colleague who, before every COE bidding exercise, would call half his friends and proclaim that prices would drop. He then called the remaining half to predict that prices would increase. Regardless of the final price, he would always be revered for his forecasting prowess, depending on which half he called afterwards.

My advice to all hoping to own a new car? Supply will continue to increase and the drop in COE prices is likely to continue – so listen less to the fearmongers and trust the science.

I am putting money where my mouth (or keyboard) is. I am replacing my ageing car and have requested a relatively unusual arrangement with the dealer – bid low as I believe there is a chance of catching it at a good price. Supply is increasing and I am happy to wait. I raised a few sceptical eyebrows when relating this approach to some of my friends. Needless to say, I cannot wait for the day when I successfully secure my COE and have that same smug look when telling them, “I told you so”. I just need to make sure that when that time comes, I am talking to the correct half of my friends.

Dr Victor Kwan spent 24 years in the automotive industry and is currently a faculty at the Singapore University of Social Sciences. This article is written from his vantage point as both a reformed armchair analyst and a good scientist.