LTA to increase up to 20,000 COEs

[Invigorated]

On 11/19/2024 at 1:56 PM, Spidey10 said:

coz car dealers bought those cars at high coe price and if coe drops, knn liao as they can't sell higher than the price they bought as new cars pegged to new COE price which is lower...

hhhmmm....wonder why these car dealers never cry father,cry mother when COE shoots up ahhh....work both ways right...

I feel that the govt announcement that the supply will increase only from feb 2025 is a warning shot for second hand dealers to be realistic and to take action earlier, like cut prices to clear stock. Don't say never warn earlier.. maybe that's why also after CNY 2025..

[Invigorated]

On 11/19/2024 at 4:03 PM, inlinesix said:

That 20k progressive increase will likely be part of the normal mathematical increase.  Maybe push forward a bit here and there.

I really don't hope that PHV category.  It is likely to be from Cat A & B.

Once change, things may not be reversed.

Don't forget that LTA key Car-Lite.

Must also see what government define as 'car-lite'

"In response, Mr Chee said having a car-lite vision does not mean that the total car population cannot grow.

Furthermore, an increase in the vehicle population does not automatically lead to an increase in usage, since car owners may still choose to take public transport to work, or use their cars mainly during off-peak periods, Mr Chee added."

so in my interpretation, it's a bit like printer vs ink scenario.

Sell the printer a bit cheaper but make the ink super expensive. Nett nett still get more with more printers and more profits from ink. 

[Wildfaye29]

pay 100k renew now - 2 yr later recover 80k - buy 30k coe

[Mkl22]

On 11/19/2024 at 4:33 PM, Spidey10 said:

Do you think the next couple of mo months bidding will be trending down as pple wait for the impact of the 20k increase? 

Yes start to trend down. Not only because of 20k but just that it coincides with more vehicles reaching 10years. 

[Mkl22]

On 11/19/2024 at 6:31 PM, Invigorated said:

Must also see what government define as 'car-lite'

"In response, Mr Chee said having a car-lite vision does not mean that the total car population cannot grow.

Furthermore, an increase in the vehicle population does not automatically lead to an increase in usage, since car owners may still choose to take public transport to work, or use their cars mainly during off-peak periods, Mr Chee added."

so in my interpretation, it's a bit like printer vs ink scenario.

Sell the printer a bit cheaper but make the ink super expensive. Nett nett still get more with more printers and more profits from ink. 

GST theory…. 
 

 

GST stands for Go Squeeze Them…. Huat ah!!

[Mkl22]

On 11/19/2024 at 4:03 PM, inlinesix said:

That 20k progressive increase will likely be part of the normal mathematical increase.  Maybe push forward a bit here and there.

I really don't hope that PHV category.  It is likely to be from Cat A & B.

Once change, things may not be reversed.

Don't forget that LTA key Car-Lite.

You keep defending your car lite. But you too never expected this 20k injection. In car lite extra coe quotas were never considered. 

I want to show off too! 😂 i knew it was coming all along when it was announced that Lawrence was taking over. magically it was said then that they over estimated the number of scrap cars from 2005-2007 hence added too many coes during that time. 
This time no need to bulls**t and just say limpeh add cause we just want to add. 
To use erp2.0 as the reason is laughable. erp2.0 not even rolled out to that many vehicles yet, teething problems of the new IU also not yet fully cleared plus distance based charging not even trialed on a larger scale can so confidently say will be ok and work. Alas we will soon be like up north talk big and then retract! 

Edited November 19, 2024 by Mkl22

[inlinesix]

On 11/19/2024 at 10:55 PM, Mkl22 said:

You keep defending your car lite. But you too never expected this 20k injection. In car lite extra coe quotas were never considered. 

I want to show off too! 😂 i knew it was coming all along when it was announced that Lawrence was taking over. magically it was said then that they over estimated the number of scrap cars from 2005-2007 hence added too many coes during that time. 
This time no need to bulls**t and just say limpeh add cause we just want to add. 
To use erp2.0 as the reason is laughable. erp2.0 not even rolled out to that many vehicles yet, teething problems of the new IU also not yet fully cleared plus distance based charging not even trialed on a larger scale can so confidently say will be ok and work. Alas we will soon be like up north talk big and then retract! 

Rather than defending car-Lite, it is reminder that policy is gearing towards car-lite. Expectation must be set correctly 

I don’t expect any injection at all from Feb 2025 to 2026.

In CHT reply to parliament (I posted that link in this thread), COE supply is expected to increase from 2026.

So call progressive increase is just what you expected.

Edited November 19, 2024 by inlinesix

[epigram]

May I ask what is the "correct" COE price in the minds of people who think the current pricing is "too high"? Bearing in mind that the "too high" pricing is not even the highest price people are prepared to pay since it is the lowest winning bid.

[Invigorated]

On 11/19/2024 at 11:47 PM, epigram said:

May I ask what is the "correct" COE price in the minds of people who think the current pricing is "too high"? Bearing in mind that the "too high" pricing is not even the highest price people are prepared to pay since it is the lowest winning bid.

Market force determines it. So demand and supply. Demand is high now and supply is low, so prices are high. 

The only other way is to control the supply since demand is hard to moderate as many still wish to buy, either to upgrade to EV or phv or just to get newer rides since too much cash..

Weirdly, it's not the richest of the lot that determines the price of Coe but the most stingy one that does, which you have pointed out.

Just wish to share that the government has made it clear that prices are likely to moderate. 

Just read between the lines from CHT here;

"In his earlier response, the minister reiterated previously announced plans to raise the COE quota for Categories A, B and C every quarter, before reaching the projected peak supply from 2026.

The additional 20,000 COEs, which constitute about 2 per cent of Singapore’s total vehicle population, would give the government more flexibility to meet this commitment, Chee said."

So hint hint, when will he be releasing the 20k since he mentioned "before reaching projected peak in 2026"?

 

[epigram]

On 11/20/2024 at 9:23 AM, Invigorated said:

Demand is high now and supply is low

Would demand soak up the additional supply? Only time will tell. 

My guess is that it will. If we look at the recent property sales weekend, there appears to be a deep reservoir of demand yet to be satisfied despite multiple rounds of cooling measures. Their carparks are likely to be filled too.

[Fitmugen]

Population keep increasing but roads are limited. I hope no one is thinking COE will come down to $60k level.

used car dealers will just wait out. In fact, they may eat more inventory. Long term can only go up 

[13177]

On 11/20/2024 at 9:58 AM, Fitmugen said:

Population keep increasing but roads are limited. I hope no one is thinking COE will come down to $60k level.

used car dealers will just wait out. In fact, they may eat more inventory. Long term can only go up 

So many people are waiting to change car and buy car, if even coe come down to 60k also will shoot up again.

[Jamesc]

It's not the 20k COE that will bring down prices.

My BFF Trump will crash the economy and cause a world recession.

[Jamesc]

But would a world recession bring down COE,?

Everyone lose their jobs and drive a PHV!

All the young people complain COE so high and cannot afford their dream of driving a car a PHV will be waiting for them.

[Beehive3783]

On 11/19/2024 at 11:47 PM, epigram said:

May I ask what is the "correct" COE price in the minds of people who think the current pricing is "too high"? Bearing in mind that the "too high" pricing is not even the highest price people are prepared to pay since it is the lowest winning bid.

The correct price is always $1  

[epigram]

On 11/21/2024 at 10:09 AM, Beehive3783 said:

always $1

Hope springs eternal

[Philipkee]

On 11/19/2024 at 11:47 PM, epigram said:

May I ask what is the "correct" COE price in the minds of people who think the current pricing is "too high"? Bearing in mind that the "too high" pricing is not even the highest price people are prepared to pay since it is the lowest winning bid.

Out of curiosity is there any way to know which is the highest bid made?  So we will know how big a difference there is from the top bid and the lowest winning bid.

[Invigorated]

@inlinesix  why would it take it so long to decrease based on your calculations?

If quite a bit of 20k is spread within a rather short span of time, say around Feb to Dec 2025 and withdrawn during the supply boom from 2026 onwards, it's quite likely a drop may also happen in 2025 right?

Government already says to increase the COE for Cat A,B and C before they reach the peak supply in 2026, to further flatten the COE supply curve.

It does make more sense that come 2026, they will stop increasing the Coe supply since Coe supply is at peak right?  That's in part to moderate and stabilise COE prices to prevent very high and very low COE

 That means that the sub 10k plus COE of the past may well be history..