LTA to increase up to 20,000 COEs

[Jamesc]

Never judge a man by his car

judge a man by the size of his

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

heart. 

[Ginyu]

On 12/6/2024 at 10:14 PM, Invigorated said:

Asked whether the injection of COEs will help bring down premiums and if more can be done to stabilise COE prices, Mr Chee said: “The Government can only control the supply of COE. I cannot control the demand.”

He added: “If prices come down, I think that will be a good outcome for car buyers.”

...

The 20,000 additional COEs will allow the Government to shore up supply in the near term without having to cut the supply from the peak years, Mr Chee said.

Link: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/transport/no-decision-yet-on-separate-coe-category-for-private-hire-cars-chee-hong-tat

My personal guess would be a bigger increase in coe supply in 2025 due to the trough and to encourage EV adoption, before a lesser increase from 2026 onwards. 

Apply some measures to dampen the demand la like phv registered cars cannot be converted for personal use,  down payment min 50%, 5 year loan max or bank increase lending rate to 4%. There are many things can be done to control the demand🤣

Edited December 7, 2024 by Ginyu

[Mkl22]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:05 PM, Ginyu said:

Apply some measures to dampen the demand la like phv registered cars cannot be converted for personal use,  down payment min 50%, 5 year loan max or bank increase lending rate to 4%. There are many things can be done to control the demand🤣

All car loans max 50%. All coe premiums sure come tumbling down. But then someone will say we rob the coffers and next gen 

[inlinesix]

They have no intention to reduce COE price.

Otherwise, how to meet target?

[Invigorated]

On 12/7/2024 at 12:19 AM, Mkl22 said:

Could have added more coe from 2023 when supply was lower than now. 
anyway we all know the reason why from feb2025. 🤣

it's obviously the election season/reason.. look at the recent reduction of property tax.. 

have to look out for budget 2025. Some will be worse off, some better.. life's like that..

Expect to see ERP 2.0,3.0.. increase erp rates cum 2026 after election wave is over. chicken wing comes from chicken body so there's no free lunch.

[Invigorated]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:19 PM, Mkl22 said:

All car loans max 50%. All coe premiums sure come tumbling down. But then someone will say we rob the coffers and next gen 

i feel the biggest loophole of all is the 0% dp that some still exploit if they borrow from finance companies.. plug this out and COE will surely see some dip one.

[Daniu82]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:05 PM, Ginyu said:

Apply some measures to dampen the demand la like phv registered cars cannot be converted for personal use,  down payment min 50%, 5 year loan max or bank increase lending rate to 4%. There are many things can be done to control the demand🤣

They only want to control the number of votes they can get. The others, you die your business. 

[Invigorated]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:39 PM, inlinesix said:

They have no intention to reduce COE price.

Otherwise, how to meet target?

I think it's not the individual COE price that they are focused on. It's the overall revenue and whether it follows and upwards trajectory.

If they increase the COE supply by 20K and the COE drops by a certain percentage but overall that boosts the collections from ERP, parking, taxes, power consumption revenue, increased business activity.. why not?

There are direct and indirect benefits derived so it's not as straightforward as 'no intention to reduce COE price' so that targets can be met.

[inlinesix]

LTA just make sure COE revenue meet target can liao

[Invigorated]

some of the increase in the Feb bidding are coming from the 20,000 and Feb is the first quota period during which LTA is injecting extra COEs. The 10% for each category doesn't feel like a mere coincidence. From sgcarmart:

https://www.sgcarmart.com/articles/news/coe-supply-to-climb-8-for-the-upcoming-quarter-36467

Edited January 16 by Invigorated

[Benarsenal]

If you look at a per bidding basis, the increase is not a lot. About 100 more for Cat A each exercise. Cat B and E even less.

I predict Cat B and E will continue to stay above $100k for the foreseeable future.

[13177]

On 1/16/2025 at 11:56 PM, Benarsenal said:

If you look at a per bidding basis, the increase is not a lot. About 100 more for Cat A each exercise. Cat B and E even less.

I predict Cat B and E will continue to stay above $100k for the foreseeable future.

100k coe would be a norm now, no need to see below 100k coe anymore. Even drop still hover around 90k plus.

[Mkl22]

On 1/16/2025 at 11:35 PM, Invigorated said:

some of the increase in the Feb bidding are coming from the 20,000 and Feb is the first quota period during which LTA is injecting extra COEs. The 10% for each category doesn't feel like a mere coincidence. From sgcarmart:

https://www.sgcarmart.com/articles/news/coe-supply-to-climb-8-for-the-upcoming-quarter-36467

Increase has not much to do with injection. Quota will only rise from now on as more cars are being scraped. 

[Fitmugen]

LTA has successfully maintained stability of the COE price for the foreseeable future. Well done!

[Spidey10]

On 12/7/2024 at 1:19 PM, Mkl22 said:

All car loans max 50%. All coe premiums sure come tumbling down. But then someone will say we rob the coffers and next gen 

what is the max loan now?...long time neber take loan already...

[Invigorated]

On 1/17/2025 at 6:26 AM, Mkl22 said:

Increase has not much to do with injection. Quota will only rise from now on as more cars are being scraped. 

how did you arrive at this, at least mathematically?

[Carbon82]

On 1/16/2025 at 11:56 PM, Benarsenal said:

If you look at a per bidding basis, the increase is not a lot. About 100 more for Cat A each exercise. Cat B and E even less.

I predict Cat B and E will continue to stay above $100k for the foreseeable future.

Just as what I have calculated when the announcement was out.

 

On 1/17/2025 at 6:46 AM, Fitmugen said:

LTA has successfully maintained stability of the COE price for the foreseeable future. Well done!

Now then you see the big picture?

The 100 extra COE per cat per month is unlikely to have any obvious downward pressure on the COE premium since demands has been high all the while.

But by taking the cut and fill approach, what actually happened is that COE quota will be down when the peak supply period started (many is expecting a bumper crop from 2026 - early 2029).

 

On 1/17/2025 at 9:26 AM, Spidey10 said:

what is the max loan now?...long time neber take loan already...

Hao lian you pay full cash ah?

Loan limits from what I can recall is up to 60% / 7 years for cat B (or was it for cars with OMV of >$20K, and 70%/ 7 years for cat A (or OMV <$20K)

I am not afraid to share that I for once have taken a 70% / 10 years loan, thinking that my investment return can cover the interest I have incurred. Ended up suffered some losses in investment while paying more for interest, double whammy... 

人算不如天算。。。

[Forever84]

@13177 ya the biggest problem is that they keep churning out COE from peak. The reason is the flatten the COE price.

Once people start to anchor the price of COE is always at 70-80k they won't complain so much when it shoots to 100-120k 

Reason so much noise is because less than 4-5 years ago people anchor on the price as 30-40k

Edited January 17 by Forever84