LTA to increase up to 20,000 COEs

[Unfazed]

On 10/30/2024 at 12:54 PM, Daniu82 said:

20k COEs across all categories. Got difference meh? If price drop 20k then got a bit of difference. Most likely PHV or rental car companies will grab them all. Just another pre election chicken wings. Will still vote for who I think is the better one. 

Will the better one turn out dress in white? 😉

[Wind30]

On 10/30/2024 at 8:37 AM, Gz0707 said:

Yes.  cars from age group year 6 to 9 (4 years) account for 50% of all COE.  Saw this via the LTA Sep stats age grouping.  In contrast, cars from 1st to 4 years old only account for 22%. So the bumper coe years are coming.  see if u can view the breakdown below.

Nice data. So in reality lta should drop the extra 20k all next year? Since after that there is already 77k cars getting deregjstered. Do u know know long is the lead time between deregistration and coe supply? Should be just 1-2 months right?

if 20k in one year should be significant .

Edited October 30, 2024 by Wind30

[Daniu82]

On 10/30/2024 at 3:23 PM, Unfazed said:

Will the better one turn out dress in white? 😉

I am scared of ghosts wearing white

[Daniu82]

On 10/30/2024 at 4:25 PM, Wind30 said:

Nice data. So in reality lta should drop the extra 20k all next year? Since after that there is already 77k cars getting deregjstered. Do u know know long is the lead time between deregistration and coe supply? Should be just 1-2 months right?

if 20k in one year should be significant .

They say 20k in the next few years, dunno how many years. So vague. If 20k next year then everyone chiong liao. 

[inlinesix]

On 10/30/2024 at 5:37 PM, Daniu82 said:

They say 20k in the next few years, dunno how many years. So vague. If 20k next year then everyone chiong liao. 

From LTA Press Release

Quote

Given the recent vehicle usage trends and improved capabilities of ERP2.0, LTA will progressively inject up to about 20,000 additional COEs across the vehicle categories from February 2025, over the next few years.

 

[Wildfaye29]

https://onemotoring.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/onemotoring/pdf/Circulars to ESAs/2024/Enquire-Revise COE Bid Industry Circular.pdf

Singpass to replace NRIC/FIN/UEN for Access to “Enquire/Revise COE Bid” Digital Services at LTA’s OneMotoring Website 1. Currently, bidders of Certificate of Entitlement (COE) can access the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on LTA’s OneMotoring website using their NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers to enquire or revise their bids. For enhanced security, we will replace access using NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers with Singpass. 2. With effect from the November 2024 first COE bidding exercise, COE bidders will need to login using their Singpass to enquire or revise their COE bids through the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on the LTA’s OneMotoring website. For bid revisions, the Acknowledgement Code will continue to be required to ensure that the bid revisions are authorised. 3. COE bidders are encouraged to submit and/or revise your bids early to ensure that the bids are accepted by the system before the bidding exercises close. 4. For more information on COE bidding, please refer to onemotoring.lta.gov.sg > Buying > Upfront Vehicle Costs > Certificate of Entitlement (COE). 5. Please inform your members of the above. Thank you. 

[Invigorated]

On 10/30/2024 at 6:52 PM, Wildfaye29 said:

https://onemotoring.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/onemotoring/pdf/Circulars to ESAs/2024/Enquire-Revise COE Bid Industry Circular.pdf

Singpass to replace NRIC/FIN/UEN for Access to “Enquire/Revise COE Bid” Digital Services at LTA’s OneMotoring Website 1. Currently, bidders of Certificate of Entitlement (COE) can access the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on LTA’s OneMotoring website using their NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers to enquire or revise their bids. For enhanced security, we will replace access using NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers with Singpass. 2. With effect from the November 2024 first COE bidding exercise, COE bidders will need to login using their Singpass to enquire or revise their COE bids through the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on the LTA’s OneMotoring website. For bid revisions, the Acknowledgement Code will continue to be required to ensure that the bid revisions are authorised. 3. COE bidders are encouraged to submit and/or revise your bids early to ensure that the bids are accepted by the system before the bidding exercises close. 4. For more information on COE bidding, please refer to onemotoring.lta.gov.sg > Buying > Upfront Vehicle Costs > Certificate of Entitlement (COE). 5. Please inform your members of the above. Thank you. 

This seems like a headache for dealers to revise bids at the eleventh hour? That means only buyers can revise their own bids now?

[Tkseah]

On 10/30/2024 at 5:37 PM, Daniu82 said:

They say 20k in the next few years, dunno how many years. So vague. If 20k next year then everyone chiong liao. 

Assuming few is 5 years, 20k coe spread evenly is 167 for each round of COE.. so the impact should be gradual..

[inlinesix]

On 10/30/2024 at 6:52 PM, Wildfaye29 said:

https://onemotoring.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/onemotoring/pdf/Circulars to ESAs/2024/Enquire-Revise COE Bid Industry Circular.pdf

Singpass to replace NRIC/FIN/UEN for Access to “Enquire/Revise COE Bid” Digital Services at LTA’s OneMotoring Website 1. Currently, bidders of Certificate of Entitlement (COE) can access the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on LTA’s OneMotoring website using their NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers to enquire or revise their bids. For enhanced security, we will replace access using NRIC/FIN/UEN numbers with Singpass. 2. With effect from the November 2024 first COE bidding exercise, COE bidders will need to login using their Singpass to enquire or revise their COE bids through the ‘Enquire/Revise COE Bid’ digital services on the LTA’s OneMotoring website. For bid revisions, the Acknowledgement Code will continue to be required to ensure that the bid revisions are authorised. 3. COE bidders are encouraged to submit and/or revise your bids early to ensure that the bids are accepted by the system before the bidding exercises close. 4. For more information on COE bidding, please refer to onemotoring.lta.gov.sg > Buying > Upfront Vehicle Costs > Certificate of Entitlement (COE). 5. Please inform your members of the above. Thank you. 

My dream cum true?
🤭

[Ct3833]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:19 PM, Tkseah said:

Assuming few is 5 years, 20k coe spread evenly is 167 for each round of COE.. so the impact should be gradual..

There will be a lot more COE supply from 2027 onwards,  so this 20k allocation will likely be spreaded over 2 years into 2025 and 2026, and the main bulk will be in 2025 , my guess.

[inlinesix]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:30 PM, Ct3833 said:

There will be a lot more COE supply from 2027 onwards,  so this 20k allocation will likely be spreaded over 2 years into 2025 and 2026, and the main bulk will be in 2025 , my guess.

LTA said progressively increase.

Likely more towards 2027

[Ct3833]

@inlinesix i borrow @Gz0707table below, there will be a lot of cars to be scrapped from 2026 onwards, maxing out at 2027, then follow through to 28 and 29.

Common sense tells me that they wont add additional COEs into the high supply  period in 2027 to lower the COE price, this is bad to the government  income. In addition, my owm suspicion of their intention is to soften the COE  price in prep for election to reduce political fall out.  Nothing wrong but the intention, I thought is quite clear, no rocket science. 

On 10/30/2024 at 8:37 AM, Gz0707 said:

Yes.  cars from age group year 6 to 9 (4 years) account for 50% of all COE.  Saw this via the LTA Sep stats age grouping.  In contrast, cars from 1st to 4 years old only account for 22%. So the bumper coe years are coming.  see if u can view the breakdown below.

 

[Wildfaye29]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:25 PM, inlinesix said:

My dream cum true?
🤭

I hope so

[Ct3833]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:25 PM, inlinesix said:

My dream cum true?
🤭

No likely, dealers will continue to dominate the bidding exercise.

[Gz0707]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:59 PM, Ct3833 said:

@inlinesix i borrow @Gz0707table below, there will be a lot of cars to be scrapped from 2026 onwards, maxing out at 2027, then follow through to 28 and 29.

Common sense tells me that they wont add additional COEs into the high supply  period in 2027 to lower the COE price, this is bad to the government  income. In addition, my owm suspicion of their intention is to soften the COE  price in prep for election to reduce political fall out.  Nothing wrong but the intention, I thought is quite clear, no rocket science. 

 

Not my chart bro.... LOL.  it's LTA numbers - attached link below for all to reference . 

Under "Motor Vehicles" - look for this - By Age Distribution Vehicle Statistics (monthly) (PDF, 275kB) in this website : 
 

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltagov/en/who_we_are/statistics_and_publications/statistics.html

Edited October 30, 2024 by Gz0707

[Invigorated]

On 10/30/2024 at 7:19 PM, Tkseah said:

Assuming few is 5 years, 20k coe spread evenly is 167 for each round of COE.. so the impact should be gradual..

I don't think it's a constant, otherwise this whole exercise will be pointless as an straight our average approach will have the same volatility, at least mathematically. 

It's more likely a decreasing exponential approach where the supply slowly tapers as the high supply years approach, if I understand this correctly.

[Invigorated]

On 10/30/2024 at 8:19 PM, Ct3833 said:

No likely, dealers will continue to dominate the bidding exercise.

The question is how? Especially when singpass isn't so easily transferrable, need biometrics etc. who would give a singpass to a dealer too?

[Ct3833]

On 10/30/2024 at 8:29 PM, Invigorated said:

The question is how? Especially when singpass isn't so easily transferrable, need biometrics etc. who would give a singpass to a dealer too?

I dont think they meant to say everyone has to use singpass to bid, i believe dealers have their ways to bid as well. Government wont implement something to kill oemne of their  most lucrative golden goose, this is the same for apple ,google, microsoft ....