The Perfect Storm of the Stock Market III

[Throttle2]

On 1/17/2024 at 4:35 PM, Fishbowl said:

Eversince the China fiasco, CDL struggling to hit $7. Haiz, I already holding some..

 Yeah its all about timing.

Its been a few years since and CDL has also been culling its Chinese exposure, so a lot of the Chinese bad news has been priced in, i believe.

its a punt which i feel is worth taking at this point.

of course no bao jiak, i am not Sifu Enye

and i am not asking or advising anyone of you to do it.  I am just saying that i am doing it. 
 

 

Edited January 17, 2024 by Throttle2

[Voodooman]

On 1/9/2024 at 12:01 PM, Throttle2 said:

Already got out of China a while back……  except for HS tech.  
small allocation so its ok.

i do believe that there will be a time for China again.    Keeo watch

I bought some H shares today.  It is so cheap i can't resist. 😂

Not much catalyst but just buy and keep and pray got no war. 

[Fishbowl]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:34 PM, Throttle2 said:

 Yeah its all about timing.

Its been a few years since and CDL has also been culling its Chinese exposure, so a lot of the Chinese bad news has been priced in, i believe.

its a punt which i feel is worth taking at this point.

of course no bao jiak, i am not Sifu Enye

 

If CDL drop further, I will pick some.. 🤫

[Throttle2]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:44 PM, Voodooman said:

I bought some H shares today.  It is so cheap i can't resist. 😂

Not much catalyst but just buy and keep and pray got no war. 

Yeah sometimes, thats reason enough

Edited January 17, 2024 by Throttle2

[Throttle2]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:48 PM, Fishbowl said:

If CDL drop further, I will pick some.. 🤫

5 - 10 lots more?

[Fishbowl]

On 1/17/2024 at 6:59 PM, Throttle2 said:

5 - 10 lots more?

I wished 🤤@Throttle2

Edited January 17, 2024 by Fishbowl

[Volvobrick]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:44 PM, Voodooman said:

I bought some H shares today.  It is so cheap i can't resist. 😂

Not much catalyst but just buy and keep and pray got no war. 

I also hand itchy looking at Chinese stocks valuations.  Have to start terminating my FDs gradually.... 

[Voodooman]

On 1/17/2024 at 7:54 PM, Volvobrick said:

I also hand itchy looking at Chinese stocks valuations.  Have to start terminating my FDs gradually.... 

7.4% growth in retail spending, 5.2% GDP growth.  But with all the negativity and all out China bashing, it is pretty hard for Chinese equities to run. So just buy a good single digit PE business with distribution. Get paid while you wait. 

China misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data

GDP for the last three months of 2023 rose by 5.2%, missing analysts' estimates of 5.3% in a Reuters poll. GDP growth for the full year was also 5.2%.

Retail sales grew by 7.4% in December from a year ago, also missing expectations for 8% growth.

China resumed reporting the unemployment rate for young people.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/01/17/china-misses-fourth-quarter-gdp-estimates-resumes-posting-youth-unemployment-data.html

Edited January 17, 2024 by Voodooman

[Throttle2]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:48 PM, Fishbowl said:

If CDL drop further, I will pick some.. 🤫

Good luck to you and me, hope it doesnt drop further. $6 is about there

[Volvobrick]

On 1/17/2024 at 8:08 PM, Voodooman said:

7.4% growth in retail spending, 5.2% GDP growth.  But with all the negativity and all out China bashing, it is pretty hard for Chinese equities to run. So just buy a good single digit PE business with distribution. Get paid while you wait. 

China misses fourth-quarter GDP estimates, resumes posting youth unemployment data

GDP for the last three months of 2023 rose by 5.2%, missing analysts' estimates of 5.3% in a Reuters poll. GDP growth for the full year was also 5.2%.

Retail sales grew by 7.4% in December from a year ago, also missing expectations for 8% growth.

China resumed reporting the unemployment rate for young people.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/01/17/china-misses-fourth-quarter-gdp-estimates-resumes-posting-youth-unemployment-data.html

Yeah I will probably buy more bank shares 8 to 9% dividends while waiting. 

[Wt_know]

wah ... this one can punt ... no $1.50 no talk?   

hearsay, in China many business up lorry liao ... no demand for "logistic" ?   

Edited January 18, 2024 by Wt_know

[Throttle2]

On 1/18/2024 at 1:34 PM, Wt_know said:

wah ... this one can punt ... no $1.50 no talk?   

hearsay, in China many business up lorry liao ... no demand for "logistic" ?   

i am waiting

[Wt_know]

don't know when PRC can recover ...  

Edited January 21, 2024 by Wt_know

[Lala81]

On 1/17/2024 at 8:35 PM, Volvobrick said:

Yeah I will probably buy more bank shares 8 to 9% dividends while waiting. 

I have sinopec, cnooc and china mobile.
Property proxy is Hong Kong Land.

Banks don't dare to buy their ones. National service is a big thing there. And the banks are expected to waive off part of the bad debts or acquired distressed assets.
Ping An just did it. And they all allowed revision of their mortgage rates last month.

 

[Volvobrick]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:16 PM, Lala81 said:

I have sinopec, cnooc and china mobile.
Property proxy is Hong Kong Land.

Banks don't dare to buy their ones. National service is a big thing there. And the banks are expected to waive off part of the bad debts or acquired distressed assets.
Ping An just did it. And they all allowed revision of their mortgage rates last month.

 

How's their dividends? I look for regular income stream.

[Lala81]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:19 PM, Volvobrick said:

How's their dividends? I look for regular income stream.

The oil companies variable. China mobile is close to its high so maybe 6+%. Hkl around 6+% at its current share price 

[Throttle2]

On 1/17/2024 at 3:56 PM, Throttle2 said:

This one, i think worth the punt.  
 

I target $8

 

 

 

 

$6.35 today.  
 

see if market gets a bit hot on it, can hit $7 easily within Jan.

[Throttle2]

On 1/21/2024 at 9:19 PM, Volvobrick said:

How's their dividends? I look for regular income stream.

Need to manage HKD and Fx exposure when you buy hk stocks.