Emerging Asia growing faster than China for 1st time in 30 years

[steveluv]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Emerging-Asia-growing-faster-than-China-for-1st-time-in-30-years?utm_campaign=GL_asia_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20220921123000&seq_num=2&si=44594

Emerging Asia growing faster than China for 1st time in 30 years
Indonesia, Philippines are bright spots but India, Pakistan faltering, says ADB

Vegetable vendors at a roadside market in Jakarta on Sept. 12. Indonesia is one emerging Asian economy that is forecast to grow faster than expected this year.   © EPA/Jiji
CLIFF VENZON, Nikkei staff writerSeptember 21, 2022 09:01 JSTUpdated on September 21, 2022 16:16 JST

MANILA -- China's COVID lockdowns mean its economic expansion this year will be slower than the rest of emerging Asia for the first time in more than three decades, the Asian Development Bank projected in a new report.

In an updated Asian Development Outlook report published Wednesday, the organization downgraded its forecast for China's 2022 growth to 3.3% from 5.0% in April. The bank also cut its projection for next year to 4.5% from 4.8%.

Under its zero-COVID strategy, the region's largest economy imposed lockdowns to fight outbreaks, even as other countries loosened restrictions to reopen their economies.

Those lockdowns, the ADB said, add to other economic challenges the region faces. These mainly stem from Russia's drawn-out invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up global food and fuel inflation and led advanced economies to raise interest rates.

Developing Asia as a whole is forecast to grow 4.3% in 2022, down from a 5.2% estimate in April. Excluding China, the region is projected to grow 5.3%, the ADB said.

The ADB defines developing (or emerging) Asia as one of its 46 regional members in Asia and the Pacific -- basically all of the region's economies except Japan.

For 2023, the emerging Asian region is forecast to grow 4.9%, instead of 5.3%.

"Developing Asia continues to recover, but risks loom large," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said in a statement.

"A significant downturn in the world economy would severely undermine demand for the region's exports," Park said. "Stronger-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies could lead to financial instability. And growth in [China] faces challenges from recurrent lockdowns and a weak property sector."

The ADB projects regional inflation to accelerate to 4.5% this year, from 3.7% in its earlier forecast. Price increases are expected to stabilize at 4.0% next year, but that is still higher than the previous forecast of 3.1%.

The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year.

The economy of crisis-hit Sri Lanka is expected to shrink 8.8% this year, before the contraction eases to 3.3% in 2023. Pakistan, which grew 6% in its 2022 fiscal year ended June, is predicted to expand at a slower pace of 3.5% in 2023 as International Monetary Fund-backed efforts to fix the country's fiscal deficit curtail economic activity, the ADB said.

Still, there are bright spots in other parts of the region.

Southeast Asia's growth forecast for this year has been raised to 5.1% from 4.9%, and a 5.0% expansion is projected for 2023.

This year's improved forecast comes amid stronger domestic demand in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, which is predicted to grow 5.4%, up from 5.0%. The Philippines is now estimated to expand 6.5%, rather than 6.0%.

[Thaiyotakamli]

Still got another 30 years to catch up with china if they keep surpassing china every year

[D3badge]

1 hour ago, Thaiyotakamli said:

Still got another 30 years to catch up with china if they keep surpassing china every year

China without Chipset supply, EM Asia can surpass China by 2030.

Look at Huawei in 2018 and 2019 brag about defeating Apple and be the number 1! fast forward to 2022, where is huawei? that chipset ban was a mini ban only, this time round is a mega ban by Biden compare to Trump!

Ironically the Chinese was root for Biden against Trump during the election, and their dream came true! Biden gotten the erection!

[Thaiyotakamli]

3 hours ago, D3badge said:

China without Chipset supply, EM Asia can surpass China by 2030.

Look at Huawei in 2018 and 2019 brag about defeating Apple and be the number 1! fast forward to 2022, where is huawei? that chipset ban was a mini ban only, this time round is a mega ban by Biden compare to Trump!

Ironically the Chinese was root for Biden against Trump during the election, and their dream came true! Biden gotten the erection!

Thats why china keep trying to make their own chipset until trying to lured over hundreds of TSMC engineers. Trying to copy TSMC lol

[inlinesix]

4 hours ago, Thaiyotakamli said:

Thats why china keep trying to make their own chipset until trying to lured over hundreds of TSMC engineers. Trying to copy TSMC lol

Still trying lo.

 

[1fast1]

11 hours ago, steveluv said:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Emerging-Asia-growing-faster-than-China-for-1st-time-in-30-years?utm_campaign=GL_asia_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link&del_type=1&pub_date=20220921123000&seq_num=2&si=44594

Emerging Asia growing faster than China for 1st time in 30 years
Indonesia, Philippines are bright spots but India, Pakistan faltering, says ADB

Vegetable vendors at a roadside market in Jakarta on Sept. 12. Indonesia is one emerging Asian economy that is forecast to grow faster than expected this year.   © EPA/Jiji
CLIFF VENZON, Nikkei staff writerSeptember 21, 2022 09:01 JSTUpdated on September 21, 2022 16:16 JST

MANILA -- China's COVID lockdowns mean its economic expansion this year will be slower than the rest of emerging Asia for the first time in more than three decades, the Asian Development Bank projected in a new report.

In an updated Asian Development Outlook report published Wednesday, the organization downgraded its forecast for China's 2022 growth to 3.3% from 5.0% in April. The bank also cut its projection for next year to 4.5% from 4.8%.

Under its zero-COVID strategy, the region's largest economy imposed lockdowns to fight outbreaks, even as other countries loosened restrictions to reopen their economies.

Those lockdowns, the ADB said, add to other economic challenges the region faces. These mainly stem from Russia's drawn-out invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed up global food and fuel inflation and led advanced economies to raise interest rates.

Developing Asia as a whole is forecast to grow 4.3% in 2022, down from a 5.2% estimate in April. Excluding China, the region is projected to grow 5.3%, the ADB said.

The ADB defines developing (or emerging) Asia as one of its 46 regional members in Asia and the Pacific -- basically all of the region's economies except Japan.

For 2023, the emerging Asian region is forecast to grow 4.9%, instead of 5.3%.

"Developing Asia continues to recover, but risks loom large," ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said in a statement.

"A significant downturn in the world economy would severely undermine demand for the region's exports," Park said. "Stronger-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies could lead to financial instability. And growth in [China] faces challenges from recurrent lockdowns and a weak property sector."

The ADB projects regional inflation to accelerate to 4.5% this year, from 3.7% in its earlier forecast. Price increases are expected to stabilize at 4.0% next year, but that is still higher than the previous forecast of 3.1%.

The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year.

The economy of crisis-hit Sri Lanka is expected to shrink 8.8% this year, before the contraction eases to 3.3% in 2023. Pakistan, which grew 6% in its 2022 fiscal year ended June, is predicted to expand at a slower pace of 3.5% in 2023 as International Monetary Fund-backed efforts to fix the country's fiscal deficit curtail economic activity, the ADB said.

Still, there are bright spots in other parts of the region.

Southeast Asia's growth forecast for this year has been raised to 5.1% from 4.9%, and a 5.0% expansion is projected for 2023.

This year's improved forecast comes amid stronger domestic demand in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, which is predicted to grow 5.4%, up from 5.0%. The Philippines is now estimated to expand 6.5%, rather than 6.0%.

India faltering? The table has its figures higher than the rest. Their figures don't seem to cohere with their claims.

Oh, this is what they mean: "The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year."

So just that it's under what was originally projected. Their language needs to be more precise. 

Also, based on this:"The ADB defines developing (or emerging) Asia as one of its 46 regional members in Asia and the Pacific -- basically all of the region's economies except Japan." 

Precisely which countries? Because I've seen South Korea on the list. Some also list Singapore. Even if we just take the former case, S. Korea developing/emerging meh? 

Everything about that report smacks of poor journalism. 

[Beregond]

30 minutes ago, Turboflat4 said:

India faltering? The table has its figures higher than the rest. Their figures don't seem to cohere with their claims.

Oh, this is what they mean: "The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year."

So just that it's under what was originally projected. Their language needs to be more precise. 

Also, based on this:"The ADB defines developing (or emerging) Asia as one of its 46 regional members in Asia and the Pacific -- basically all of the region's economies except Japan." 

Precisely which countries? Because I've seen South Korea on the list. Some also list Singapore. Even if we just take the former case, S. Korea developing/emerging meh? 

Everything about that report smacks of poor journalism. 

 

India is far from faltering, they just overtook UK.

I think its only a matter of time before they over took germany also. i think around 5-10 years

[Victor68]

Sounds like 'copy and paste' everything solved. Bringing a high tech plant to another country will produce same or required results. Just look near us on the Klang port in JB as an example. 

Of all the emerging Asia countries, Vietnam seem the most promising but still, do take a look yourself to understand. That is my personal opinion only.

[Arogab]

Years ago, all start to move into China. These days, people realize not to do this anymore. 

But the real grow with China is the Gov is able to make all the quick development of the infra-structure. Which Gov is able to do that except of Singapore?

These emerging countries probably takes years to build

[inlinesix]

3 minutes ago, Arogab said:

Years ago, all start to move into China. These days, people realize not to do this anymore. 

But the real grow with China is the Gov is able to make all the quick development of the infra-structure. Which Gov is able to do that except of Singapore?

These emerging countries probably takes years to build

I think 70% of China GDP is from Property 

[Arogab]

Heading for trouble soon. They are so fast and probably overbuild liao. Lucky thing is they also got the advantage to push people from rural to built up areas. Make rural people pay for some things. That is why their bubble is not easily burst but I wonder how far they can hold

[D3badge]

10 hours ago, Turboflat4 said:

India faltering? The table has its figures higher than the rest. Their figures don't seem to cohere with their claims.

Oh, this is what they mean: "The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year."

So just that it's under what was originally projected. Their language needs to be more precise. 

Also, based on this:"The ADB defines developing (or emerging) Asia as one of its 46 regional members in Asia and the Pacific -- basically all of the region's economies except Japan." 

Precisely which countries? Because I've seen South Korea on the list. Some also list Singapore. Even if we just take the former case, S. Korea developing/emerging meh? 

Everything about that report smacks of poor journalism. 

 

same goes for China developing/emerging meh? use developing status get cheap loan from WTO but the 3rd country in the world that can send human to space even the rest of the developed nations cannot!

But wait yes China still developing nation!!! they only spend money where people can see eg. go to space but not to improve the basic necessities human quality of life!!! In china you cannot just turn on the tap and drink water even in their mega cities aka Beijing, shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou!! unlike 3rd world Singapore in the 1970s PUB already provide Singapore drinkable waters from taps!!

hmm.... Culturally we are definitely different in definition of priority : Quality of human life  vs Face of government 

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm#:~:text=Tap water in China is,Tap water is not drinkable.

Edited September 23, 2022 by D3badge

[Playtime]

On 9/23/2022 at 7:48 AM, Turboflat4 said:

Oh, this is what they mean: "The bank said rising inflation is expected to dent the recovery of South Asia, which is predicted to grow 6.5% this year, instead of 7.0%. The growth forecast for India, South Asia's largest economy, has been cut to 7.0%, from 7.5%, with a 7.2% expansion predicted next year."

i always wonder how the hell they predict to half a % of a whole COUNTRY performance.... i dont even know how much i will spend this month.😬