Planned liberation of Taiwan in the making…..

[BanCoe]

1 hour ago, Jamesc said:

Isn't this how Russian invaded Ukraine?

Military "exercise" at the border of Ukraine

and then invade it.

Special Ops

[Jellandross]

Dance-off time! 

 

 

[Civic101]

80 years old lao auntie already one leg inside coffin still chut this kind of stunt, want the whole world to 陪葬！TMD!

Edited August 3, 2022 by Civic101

[macrosszero]

Its a high stakes game of chicken.

The US is clearly testing the response of China, and China cannot back down lest they are seen to be weak, worst of all by their own people. The Chinese are already stewing under the zero-COVID strategy, with property developers going bust, bank account balances disappearing and lack of overseas travel for the rich, you can bet there is more behind the Great Wall of Internet than what most of us can see.

However, China cannot afford to go to war over Taiwan, not now at least. Wars cost money - not just in soldiers' salaries, ammunition and weaponry but also impacts it will have on trade. China needs the very same Taiwan Strait to ship its goods to the rest of the world, the same one that they would try to launch an invasion fleet across. And that's on the assumption that they have sufficient amphibious and sealift capability. 

What could however happen is that they could attempt a Russian-style annexation of the Kinmen Islands which is just off the coast of Xiamen, Matsu Islands just off the coast of Fuzhou. Each would be a much easier task to throw a blanket over with land-based artillery, rockets, aircraft, anti-aircraft batteries as well as airborne forces. If they were feeling brave and wanted to dip their toes in further after they've done their Crimea, Penghu Island sits near the middle of the Taiwan Strait and is an important unsinkable aircraft carrier for Taiwan to interdict any invasion force from the Mainland. 

While I cast doubt on PLAN's amphibious capability, ROCN is many times smaller both in tonnage as well as numbers. This is significant in any attempt to reinforce and resupply the islands above. In wartime conditions, it is likely that they cannot, and will be left to the PRC. 

Should it proceed to a shooting war, it is likely that ROC will give up those two island groups right off the shores of China. They are many times closer to the Mainland than to Taiwan, and while they are strategically important from an intelligence-gathering perspective, would cost disproportionate amounts of resources to defend. 

But China would have to be mindful that even taking small territories of ROC could give the US the excuse that it needs to step up their support (including of materiel) for Taiwan and upset the balance thus far, which has been favourable to China. They have managed to effectively isolate Taiwan diplomatically and been mostly effective in hindering Taiwan from purchasing weapons on the world market.  To tip the balance and open the floodgates should be something they are very mindful of. 

In the end, each decision, action or inaction will come with something to gain, but also surely, a cost.

[Atonchia]

1 hour ago, Inlinefour said:

hopefully Winnie the Pooh will not loot all my favourite 台妹 away 

please leave some bread crumbs for me 🙊🙉🙈 

perhaps pinky can import 台妹 here huh 😍😍😍

Sell betul nuts?

[noobcarbuyer]

1 hour ago, Inlinefour said:

hopefully Winnie the Pooh will not loot all my favourite 台妹 away 

please leave some bread crumbs for me 🙊🙉🙈 

perhaps pinky can import 台妹 here huh 😍😍😍

I welcome all 台妹 to come apply to seek shelter in my home.

The interview will be conducted with the utmost sensitivity and privacy. LOLOLOL

[Maxus-MIFA9]

1 hour ago, Inlinefour said:

betel nut chew one not smoke right 😜

you very experience ... 

 

[DOBIEMKZ]

1 hour ago, Volvobrick said:

Worst is guidance c@ckup and missile continues to Guam/Hawaii..... 

That's quite a long range.!😲 I expect those missiles although they fly very fast they also consume fuel very fast and hence limited ranges.

Edited August 3, 2022 by DOBIEMKZ

[Inlinefour]

25 minutes ago, Atonchia said:

Sell betul nuts?

actually 台妹 is not 槟榔西施 😍😍😍

[Inlinefour]

22 minutes ago, noobcarbuyer said:

I welcome all 台妹 to come apply to seek shelter in my home.

The interview will be conducted with the utmost sensitivity and privacy. LOLOLOL

wow lau eh share share leh 🤣🤣🤣

[Beregond]

1 hour ago, Civic101 said:

80 years old lao auntie already one leg inside coffin still chut this kind of stunt, want the whole world to 陪葬！TMD!

better pray no misfire from any side, imagine any thing happen.

we will be order to do sanctions against china also. the inflation is already crazy with russia sanctions, if add china, 🥶

[Inlinefour]

19 minutes ago, Picnic06-Biante15 said:

you very experience ... 

 

last time ex starlight buy many times 🤣🤣🤣

[Spidey10]

2 hours ago, Jamesc said:

Even if China has no intention of invading Taiwan

so many planes and ships and firing missiles so close to Taiwan

what if a stray missile took down a Taiwanese fighter get or a missile hits a Taiwan warship?

A mistake could be taken as an act of war.

Better not to play games so no misunderstanding.

i think China will DEFINITELY do something....No face already ler, told you all dun come, but still come, never give me face....

so guess is be prepared as to what Xi will do...maybe all out war, or maybe all out trade war, or maybe just bomb TW.....but definitely will be something and it will be felt across our neighbourly countries ...

[Jamesc]

2 hours ago, Fitvip said:

Time to send your mil to visit Taiwan to eat smelly toufu.

Good idea and not difficult

as she really loves holiday in TW.

[Jamesc]

Better order your online products now

in case got sanctions.

[macrosszero]

14 minutes ago, Jamesc said:

Good idea and not difficult

as she really loves holiday in TW.

I highly recommend Kinmen Island. 

If she's lucky, she will get to travel to Taiwan and come back from China!

[Scion]

1 hour ago, Macrosszero said:

Its a high stakes game of chicken.

The US is clearly testing the response of China, and China cannot back down lest they are seen to be weak, worst of all by their own people. The Chinese are already stewing under the zero-COVID strategy, with property developers going bust, bank account balances disappearing and lack of overseas travel for the rich, you can bet there is more behind the Great Wall of Internet than what most of us can see.

However, China cannot afford to go to war over Taiwan, not now at least. Wars cost money - not just in soldiers' salaries, ammunition and weaponry but also impacts it will have on trade. China needs the very same Taiwan Strait to ship its goods to the rest of the world, the same one that they would try to launch an invasion fleet across. And that's on the assumption that they have sufficient amphibious and sealift capability. 

What could however happen is that they could attempt a Russian-style annexation of the Kinmen Islands which is just off the coast of Xiamen, Matsu Islands just off the coast of Fuzhou. Each would be a much easier task to throw a blanket over with land-based artillery, rockets, aircraft, anti-aircraft batteries as well as airborne forces. If they were feeling brave and wanted to dip their toes in further after they've done their Crimea, Penghu Island sits near the middle of the Taiwan Strait and is an important unsinkable aircraft carrier for Taiwan to interdict any invasion force from the Mainland. 

While I cast doubt on PLAN's amphibious capability, ROCN is many times smaller both in tonnage as well as numbers. This is significant in any attempt to reinforce and resupply the islands above. In wartime conditions, it is likely that they cannot, and will be left to the PRC. 

Should it proceed to a shooting war, it is likely that ROC will give up those two island groups right off the shores of China. They are many times closer to the Mainland than to Taiwan, and while they are strategically important from an intelligence-gathering perspective, would cost disproportionate amounts of resources to defend. 

But China would have to be mindful that even taking small territories of ROC could give the US the excuse that it needs to step up their support (including of materiel) for Taiwan and upset the balance thus far, which has been favourable to China. They have managed to effectively isolate Taiwan diplomatically and been mostly effective in hindering Taiwan from purchasing weapons on the world market.  To tip the balance and open the floodgates should be something they are very mindful of. 

In the end, each decision, action or inaction will come with something to gain, but also surely, a cost.

 

good analysis, even if i dun quite agree with some of the points

this is mature discussion and sharing of thoughts

better than some bitter buggers here who talk nonsense 😁

[Yeshe]

55 minutes ago, Picnic06-Biante15 said:

you very experience ... 

 

Chew betel nut need experience??? Got mouth and teeth can already lah..