No recession expected in S'pore in 2023, but 'significant' global risks remain: MTI

[Stary]

45 minutes ago, Windwaver said:

Going up is fine if it's based on real actual work done but most of the time is mainly based on relationship.

I've seen countless times where a good hardworking worker who doesn't mingle much doesn't get promoted. The one who gets promoted is usually somebody who talks more than doing actual work.

So we hire people to talk not to work their way up.

Hard truth.

Hard working, great performance, only get a person promoted to the middle level. From that level onwards, it is how the person network (internally and externally)  and how important is the person to the revenue generation part of the business. 

Ability to communicate and network is a skill from the mid levels up.

[Stary]

59 minutes ago, Arogab said:

Like that how to enjoy his million?? This is why. Life should take the middle path. He probably forgot he got more than the M. 

Anyway, I really think one should not go to extreme. I am happy what I am and when told to some others. Many will agree what I means by "I know how to say enough" and be happy.

I know and can see one guy. He got much more than enough and now I can see he is unhappy with many things liao. Just he did not show it only. On the other hand, one guy who got so much and gives so much was so happy with me having dinner last week. It's all about being happy.

Contentment is the path to happiness. And happiness then attract opportunities and riches.

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by Starry

[Victor68]

What he is saying is, right now you guys are having a good life. COE and property prices going up, can't you see? If you feel stretched, then better be ready for the real one. It isn't even near recession yet.

Some have commented that senior management always get better pay rise. Who recommend leh? So if you are the one recommending, would you recommend more for others than yourself? Retrench also someone else right? 

[noobcarbuyer]

3 hours ago, kobayashiGT said:

Source: https://mothership.sg/2022/07/no-recession-2023-mti/

Economic activity in Singapore "has remained resilient" amid an increasingly challenging global economic environment, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Alvin Tan said in Parliament on Jul. 4.

Tan noted a "significant rise in inflation", but pointed to figures that indicated "a continued recovery from the pandemic", such as a 3.7 per cent GDP growth on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2022.

Overall, MTI expects the Singapore economy to expand by 3 to 5 per cent in 2022, with growth likely to come in at the lower half of the forecast range, Tan shared.

He added that growth in 2023 is expected to moderate further, and a recession is not expected in Singapore in 2023, at this stage.

Singapore is also not expected to go through stagflation, a situation where economic growth is stagnant and there is high unemployment, along with high inflation.

"Significant" risks in global economy

However, Tan said "risks in the global economy remain significant", such as the possibility of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, among others.

He also cited a global economic slowdown and "strong external inflationary pressures".

"As a small, open economy, Singapore cannot be insulated from these external developments," said Tan.

Significant rise in inflation, but economy "remained resilient thus far"

Referring to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)'s core inflation metric, as well as "CPI – All Items inflation", a measure of inflation that factors in costs of private transport and accommodation, Tan shared some inflation-related statistics:

• MAS Core Inflation increased by 3.6 per cent, year-on-year in May, from 3.3 per cent in April, and 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.
• Core Inflation for 2022 as a whole is expected to average out at 2.5 to 3.5 per cent.
• "CPI – All Items" inflation rose to 5.6 per cent year on year in May, from 5.4 per cent in April and 4.6 per cent in the first quarter.
• "CPI – All Items" inflation is expected to average out at 4.5 to 5.5 per cent.

However, the economy has "remained resilient thus far", said Tan, citing the following statistics:

3.7 per cent GDP growth on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2022.

• Non-oil domestic exports rose by 9.3 per cent in April and May, year-on-year.
• Industrial production rose by 10 per cent in April and May, year-on-year.
• Retail sales volumes increased by 8.4 per cent in April year-on-year.
• F&B sales volumes increased by 6.9 per cent in April year-on-year.

He also mentioned that for the rest of the year, weaker external demand will be mitigated by the recovery of international travel, and domestic demand with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

Tan also outlined government policies to address the economic challenges ahead, namely:

• Maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment, and tightening monetary policy to temper imported inflation.
• Providing "immediate and targeted relief to low-income and vulnerable Singaporeans" through a S$1.5 billion support package.
• Continuing to "attract investments and foster new growth engines".

"Strong job creation and wage growth are the best ways to combat inflation," said Tan.

 

The Govt is obviously trying to calm down fears of a recession amongst the commoners. If not managed right, overwhelming fear of a recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Stary]

44 minutes ago, noobcarbuyer said:

The Govt is obviously trying to calm down fears of a recession amongst the commoners. If not managed right, overwhelming fear of a recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I think COE prices can be a leading indicator if a recession is coming.

I mean who buy new cars now? Basically bosses or the high income earners who are in the senior positions.  These are also the people who look at their business P&L and they are the first to know if their business is slowing and time to tighten their spending.

 

[Volvobrick]

We need a recession to keep inflation in check just like the US. No recession means inflation will continue to be very bad.

(For people with no employment....)

 

[Windwaver]

1 hour ago, Victor68 said:

What he is saying is, right now you guys are having a good life. COE and property prices going up, can't you see? If you feel stretched, then better be ready for the real one. It isn't even near recession yet.

Some have commented that senior management always get better pay rise. Who recommend leh? So if you are the one recommending, would you recommend more for others than yourself? Retrench also someone else right? 

Unfortunately I'm not so senior cos busy working, no time to suck up 

[Scion]

55 minutes ago, Volvobrick said:

We need a recession to keep inflation in check just like the US. No recession means inflation will continue to be very bad.

(For people with no employment....)

 

 

worse is stagflation... economy not growing or even recession, but there's still high inflation

[Victor68]

1 hour ago, Starry said:

I think COE prices can be a leading indicator if a recession is coming.

I mean who buy new cars now? Basically bosses or the high income earners who are in the senior positions.  These are also the people who look at their business P&L and they are the first to know if their business is slowing and time to tighten their spending.

 

True but if you see people paying $m for ABSD, you know $100k is peanuts to them. So how many are in this category? Some are those that truly need the car but minority, I suppose. 

[Arogab]

4 hours ago, Windwaver said:

Exactly.

Most of us are fortunate enough to be able to post and input our views here without having to worry about our next meal, roof over our head or medical care.

I always think of what I have and not what I don't have because it's never enough 

Bro, sometimes having say enough is happiness. Trust me, I could be working harder than ever, but not me. Haha

[Arogab]

3 hours ago, Starry said:

Contentment is the path to happiness. And happiness then attract opportunities and riches.

 

Indeed but riches and happiness does not come in direct proportion. When one got money to put into comfort life and enjoy them, happiness follows. But if one put a lot into luxury stuffs and does not enjoy. Then there goes happiness

[Jamesc]

I have very little and I am happy,

I wish I have even less.

No MIL.

Too much of a good thing is a bad thing.

[kobayashiGT]

7 hours ago, inlinesix said:

Forward projection, we got stats?

 

projection is not stats, 

Stats is not projection. 😆

[kobayashiGT]

2 hours ago, Scion said:

 

worse is stagflation... economy not growing or even recession, but there's still high inflation

Japan is a good example. 

[Stary]

1 hour ago, Jamesc said:

I have very little and I am happy,

I wish I have even less.

No MIL.

Too much of a good thing is a bad thing.

Less is more. It is good for mental and physical health

But people want everything more. More pay, more cars, more houses and more girl friends if they can. All these "more" will have its problems, troubles and stresses.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Starry

[Jamesc]

5 minutes ago, Starry said:

Less is more

[Volvobrick]

1 hour ago, kobayashiGT said:

Japan is a good example. 

Japan's problem is opposite - deflation plus no growth. Uniquely Jipunese. 

[Jamesc]

Inflation people complain

deflation people complain

Aiyoh.