No recession expected in S'pore in 2023, but 'significant' global risks remain: MTI

[kobayashiGT]

Source: https://mothership.sg/2022/07/no-recession-2023-mti/

Economic activity in Singapore "has remained resilient" amid an increasingly challenging global economic environment, Minister of State for Trade and Industry Alvin Tan said in Parliament on Jul. 4.

Tan noted a "significant rise in inflation", but pointed to figures that indicated "a continued recovery from the pandemic", such as a 3.7 per cent GDP growth on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2022.

Overall, MTI expects the Singapore economy to expand by 3 to 5 per cent in 2022, with growth likely to come in at the lower half of the forecast range, Tan shared.

He added that growth in 2023 is expected to moderate further, and a recession is not expected in Singapore in 2023, at this stage.

Singapore is also not expected to go through stagflation, a situation where economic growth is stagnant and there is high unemployment, along with high inflation.

"Significant" risks in global economy

However, Tan said "risks in the global economy remain significant", such as the possibility of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic, among others.

He also cited a global economic slowdown and "strong external inflationary pressures".

"As a small, open economy, Singapore cannot be insulated from these external developments," said Tan.

Significant rise in inflation, but economy "remained resilient thus far"

Referring to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)'s core inflation metric, as well as "CPI – All Items inflation", a measure of inflation that factors in costs of private transport and accommodation, Tan shared some inflation-related statistics:

• MAS Core Inflation increased by 3.6 per cent, year-on-year in May, from 3.3 per cent in April, and 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.
• Core Inflation for 2022 as a whole is expected to average out at 2.5 to 3.5 per cent.
• "CPI – All Items" inflation rose to 5.6 per cent year on year in May, from 5.4 per cent in April and 4.6 per cent in the first quarter.
• "CPI – All Items" inflation is expected to average out at 4.5 to 5.5 per cent.

However, the economy has "remained resilient thus far", said Tan, citing the following statistics:

3.7 per cent GDP growth on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2022.

• Non-oil domestic exports rose by 9.3 per cent in April and May, year-on-year.
• Industrial production rose by 10 per cent in April and May, year-on-year.
• Retail sales volumes increased by 8.4 per cent in April year-on-year.
• F&B sales volumes increased by 6.9 per cent in April year-on-year.

He also mentioned that for the rest of the year, weaker external demand will be mitigated by the recovery of international travel, and domestic demand with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

Tan also outlined government policies to address the economic challenges ahead, namely:

• Maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment, and tightening monetary policy to temper imported inflation.
• Providing "immediate and targeted relief to low-income and vulnerable Singaporeans" through a S$1.5 billion support package.
• Continuing to "attract investments and foster new growth engines".

"Strong job creation and wage growth are the best ways to combat inflation," said Tan.

Quote

Retail sales volumes increased by 8.4 per cent in April year-on-year.

- I think this is mainly due to COE hikes. 🤣

 

[Stratovarius]

xiao long say recession in either 2023 or 2024. This guy say 2023 no recession. So conclusion is 2024 will have recession? So confusing. 

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/explainer-what-will-likely-cause-recession-2024-pm-lee-cautioned-1889841

[Watwheels]

I wish they stop showing the statistics. It doesnt really show every detail.

Moreover statistics or figures are cold and dont show emotions or what ppl are going thru. 

 

"Strong job creation and wage growth are the best ways to combat inflation," said Tan.

I wish I can find a new and rich father/mother to combat inflation. 

[kobayashiGT]

28 minutes ago, Stratovarius said:

xiao long say recession in either 2023 or 2024. This guy say 2023 no recession. So conclusion is 2024 will have recession? So confusing. 

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/explainer-what-will-likely-cause-recession-2024-pm-lee-cautioned-1889841

Woah. he overright xiao long? 😆

[kobayashiGT]

22 minutes ago, Watwheels said:

I wish they stop showing the statistics. It doesnt really show every detail.

Moreover statistics or figures are cold and dont show emotions or what ppl are going thru. 

 

"Strong job creation and wage growth are the best ways to combat inflation," said Tan.

I wish I can find a new and rich father/mother to combat inflation. 

Who wage is growing? 

The executive who is working hard or the C-suite? This one I wanna see the stats. 🤣 

[Watwheels]

4 minutes ago, kobayashiGT said:

Who wage is growing? 

The executive who is working hard or the C-suite? This one I wanna see the stats. 🤣 

Kong jiao way is free of charge. Anyone can do it.

[Ahwhye]

2 minutes ago, Watwheels said:

Kong jiao way is free of charge. Anyone can do it.

but to kong jiao way and get paid heavenly is the ultimate......

[inlinesix]

1 hour ago, Watwheels said:

I wish they stop showing the statistics. It doesnt really show every detail.

Moreover statistics or figures are cold and dont show emotions or what ppl are going thru. 

 

"Strong job creation and wage growth are the best ways to combat inflation," said Tan.

I wish I can find a new and rich father/mother to combat inflation. 

Forward projection, we got stats?

 

Edited July 5, 2022 by inlinesix

[Arogab]

Recession or no recession. Better spend within your means. Save to much later suddenly die. Overspend, die. 

Life is about the middle path😂, treat yourself well. Don't go extreme

[Watwheels]

I dont think we have a lot. Mainly only people. And they are aging. No other resources means every other thing and food are imported. Trying to paint a rosy picture of it is just unrealistic. Like the law minister would say, "let's be real".

[Windwaver]

31 minutes ago, kobayashiGT said:

Who wage is growing? 

The executive who is working hard or the C-suite? This one I wanna see the stats. 🤣 

Senior people will always get more than rank and file. Not the first time I see senior management get special bonuses while rank and file get nothing. Even if there is, the formula is always in favor of a higher salary.

In other words, the rich will become richer and middle class will start shrinking.

[inlinesix]

3 minutes ago, Windwaver said:

Senior people will always get more than rank and file. Not the first time I see senior management get special bonuses while rank and file get nothing. Even if there is, the formula is always in favor of a higher salary.

In other words, the rich will become richer and middle class will start shrinking.

What’s new.

That’s why ppl aspire to go up

[Windwaver]

11 minutes ago, Arogab said:

Recession or no recession. Better spend within your means. Save to much later suddenly die. Overspend, die. 

Life is about the middle path😂, treat yourself well. Don't go extreme

Like this man? 

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/elderly-man-who-lived-in-hdb-rental-flat-has-1m-savings

Elderly man who lived in HDB rental flat has $1m savings

SINGAPORE - The phrase “appearances can be deceptive” doesn’t come close to capturing the case of a Singaporean man in his 80s who lived what seemed to be a hand-to-mouth existence in a one-room rental flat, when in fact he has $1 million in his bank account and other financial products.

He dressed simply and lived mostly on food bought from nearby markets and hawker centres – not unlike other retirees in the neighbourhood. 

[Arogab]

Ok, when I sell all my properties and retire, get a rented flat. I will try to do better. But I won't keep the money, I will spend them and make myself comfortable in case I die suddenly🤣.

[Windwaver]

17 minutes ago, inlinesix said:

What’s new.

That’s why ppl aspire to go up

Going up is fine if it's based on real actual work done but most of the time is mainly based on relationship.

I've seen countless times where a good hardworking worker who doesn't mingle much doesn't get promoted. The one who gets promoted is usually somebody who talks more than doing actual work.

So we hire people to talk not to work their way up.

[Windwaver]

2 minutes ago, Arogab said:

Ok, when I sell all my properties and retire, get a rented flat. I will try to do better. But I won't keep the money, I will spend them and make myself comfortable in case I die suddenly🤣.

BTW, this millionaire rental flat elderly has dementia.

Like you said, life should be middle ground; totally agree.

[Arogab]

1 minute ago, Windwaver said:

BTW, this millionaire rental flat elderly has dementia.

Like you said, life should be middle ground; totally agree.

Like that how to enjoy his million?? This is why. Life should take the middle path. He probably forgot he got more than the M. 

Anyway, I really think one should not go to extreme. I am happy what I am and when told to some others. Many will agree what I means by "I know how to say enough" and be happy.

I know and can see one guy. He got much more than enough and now I can see he is unhappy with many things liao. Just he did not show it only. On the other hand, one guy who got so much and gives so much was so happy with me having dinner last week. It's all about being happy.

[Windwaver]

Just now, Arogab said:

Like that how to enjoy his million?? This is why. Life should take the middle path. He probably forgot he got more than the M. 

Anyway, I really think one should not go to extreme. I am happy what I am and when told to some others. Many will agree what I means by "I know how to say enough" and be happy.

I know and can see one guy. He got much more than enough and now I can see he is unhappy with many things liao. Just he did not show it only. On the other hand, one guy who got so much and gives so much was so happy with me having dinner last week. It's all about being happy.

Exactly.

Most of us are fortunate enough to be able to post and input our views here without having to worry about our next meal, roof over our head or medical care.

I always think of what I have and not what I don't have because it's never enough