Singapore Property Scene Discussion

[Enye]

6 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

While CPF provide guaranteed return of 2.5% per annum,  it does not hedge against inflation. Assuming  an annual 3% inflation rate  per year, 10 years later , the principle some in the CPF account would have devalued by at least 30%.  Whereas  a property will follow inflation, the asset value will increase over the years(generally). Rental wise some of the better location unit can fetch rental of about 3% or slightly higher. Our Ministster have already made it clear that importation of TLs is a given, so the rental market is assured to some extent.   Moreover, property price will rise as the demand increases, plus the current low interest rate,  making buying property an investment that will make a lot of sense, this is undisputed  over the last many decades till now.  Economy and job market may be bad, but in the land scarce island like Singapore, there are enough cash rich or even the not so rich, but  daring people who are willing to take a  higher leverage to take the plunge.

err... if cpf gives 2.5% and annual inflation is 3%, your principal sum goes down by 0.5% per year or 5% over 10 years lah

where got devalue by 30% so much de? don’t make me chua tio leh

if property price follow inflation and you pay 1% interest then even don’t count other expenses, you can gain how much ah?

so cpf better or property better ah in this example?

😬😅

Edited October 24, 2020 by Enye

[Rskc]

46 minutes ago, Kopites said:

Isn't it sell high and buy high?

Well to them, they bought hdb low, sold high (hdb already peaked) and move to condo, hoping to catch condo's next peak. 

No right or wrong. More of risk appetite.

[Ct3833]

57 minutes ago, Enye said:

err... if cpf gives 2.5% and annual inflation is 3%, your principal sum goes down by 0.5% per year or 5% over 10 years lah

where got devalue by 30% so much de? don’t make me chua tio leh

if property price follow inflation and you pay 1% interest then even don’t count other expenses, you can gain how much ah?

so cpf better or property better ah in this example?

😬😅

In my real life example, all who believe in properly  have been doing not just better but a lot better than me , who is a CPF believer.  

[kobayashiGT]

2 hours ago, therock said:

Thanks 🙏 

I have some contacts for sanitary wares and such when you are ready bro

Plus that store we went to for house items together during covid .. 👍 

Hahah. I don't think I am capable to buy house lah. I just wanna learn first. 🙂

[therock]

46 minutes ago, Ct3833 said:

In my real life example, all who believe in properly  have been doing not just better but a lot better than me , who is a CPF believer.  

The long term prospects are decent, but the days of quick get rich or seeing massive capital gains in 10 yrs may not be the same.

An agent might quote old data or say property is a sure bet, but do your maths first. 

Eg budget, the potential, other investment options first etc etc.

 

Even in choosing a landed place for example. 

If one pays top dollar for a small plot landed somewhere ulu, that place may already have been it's capital gain, which was taken by the previous owner. 
I'm actually listening to 93.8 now, and Propnex boss Ismail, is actually advising caution and to see what's the upside.

He says
Mistakes people make when buying:

poor financing planning

not enough safety net

buying a prop emotionally

not enough rental yield

 

Timing is everything, and entry price, location etc. Don't enter the market speculatively, with a short term horizon. Min 3 year horizon to avoid the extra stamp duty.

 

[therock]

He also says resale is ok.

Launches enjoy initial discounts plus warranty. Even LH property has a full lease

 

Resale

Avoid those with less than 70 yr lease unless you know what you are getting into, eg good rental. 

[Ct3833]

1 minute ago, therock said:

The long term prospects are decent, but the days of quick get rich or seeing massive capital gains in 10 yrs may not be the same.

An agent might quote old data or say property is a sure bet, but do your maths first. 

Eg budget, the potential, other investment options first etc etc.

 

Even in choosing a landed place for example. 

If one pays top dollar for a small plot landed somewhere ulu, that place may already have been it's capital gain, which was taken by the previous owner. 
I'm actually listening to 93.8 now, and Propnex boss Ismail, is actually advising caution and to see what's the upside.

He says
Mistakes people make when buying:

poor financing planning

not enough safety net

buying a prop emotionally

not enough rental yield

 

Timing is everything, and entry price, location etc. Don't enter the market speculatively, with a short term horizon. Min 3 year horizon to avoid the extra stamp duty.

 

correct, the opportunity of people making huge quantum leap from property money is over, now one has to be selective and careful. But we dont know what we dont know, 10 years ago people were talking about properties being over priced, 10 years later now, we are still talking about the same thing. 10 years later? 

 

[Kklee]

IMHO.

I am a simple person with simple view.   
If I see property advertisement  leaflets at my doorstep and mailbox,   to me,  it means property not doing well.
 

[Alfc]

12 hours ago, therock said:

I'm beginning this thread so I can continue to discuss matters on a topic that interests me. I know there is a thread with similar content, but it's become a bit toxic, so if the mods don't mind, I'll start one here?

Otherwise go ahead and merge.

Basically we have an economic crisis on us, and internationally things are not doing well either. But in spite of this, property prices seem to be headed northwards and the agents will want to tell you, they won't drop.

But job losses are on the way, and the capital appreciation on property isn't what it used to be and despite what agents try to tout, one must consider all factors rationally, and see if your money is better served elsewhere.

Eg a good benchmark will be the 2.5% that CPF offers.

But property remains enticing because it takes a lot more effort and investigation to find alternatives and not all Singaporeans are that hardworking or familiar with the investment instruments available. 

I wonder what the rest think?

Cheers

  

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

In my real life example, all who believe in properly  have been doing not just better but a lot better than me , who is a CPF believer.  

There are always plus and minus on the various modes of investments, be it properties, equities market, CPF, endowment plans, fixed deposit etc. When one tend to over focus on only the plus, the outliers (as selective supporting evidence) rather than the overall, a sole selected monetary yardstick (profit, return %? what about cashflow, liquidity etc), ignore or play down risks, then the agenda becomes obviously very opinionated and one-sided. 

Personally, I am not against any mode of investment as long as one walks in knowingly with eyes open and be responsible for own actions be it for better or worse (even black swan events are no exception or excuse as these can be planned as a risk even if dunno when or what will happen).    

Applaud you for the attempt.

For properties, imo, the past glories are over and those that make good money are mostly bought pre 2011/12 (myself included). Sure still will have good finds but no longer just a "buy anything and hold" strategy anymore. A 2-3% annual appreciation (overall notwithstanding black swan in certain years like now) is nothing to shout about to me (given the effort and risk involved) and not even an enticing enough reason to go all-in solely into this. These are just monetary considerations. What about the non-monetary aspect like constant pressure of job security, ability to find tenants, time and effort to upkeep etc.

For today, in a way, the CPF can be viewed as a quasi "property investment" in some sense. There are commonalities (e.g mid-long term horizon, need holding or tahan power) and the power of compounding comes when the base built up becomes sizeable. Your so-called "collect rental" happens after 55 if you choose to take out the 2.5%(OA) or 4% (RA) yield (this is net basis and almost risk free effort free, not gross) once you fulfill all the FRS criteria. Sole biggest risk to me is policy risk. So not really a loss cause. 

Everyone who buy toto think they got inspiration and may just be the one. But in reality, we know the truth who the real winner is.

[Enye]

1 hour ago, Ct3833 said:

In my real life example, all who believe in properly  have been doing not just better but a lot better than me , who is a CPF believer.  

wah boss... you flipped from economics behind property investments to anecdotal evidence just in a span of 2 posts

ok you win

👍🤣

[Ct3833]

4 minutes ago, Enye said:

wah boss... you flipped from economics behind property investments to anecdotal evidence just in a span of 2 posts

ok you win

👍🤣

dont lah, i am talking about my peers, not me, now I am not just the poorest guy in town, I am also jobless. Win what win？ I no money, but happy 就好。😄

Edited October 24, 2020 by Ct3833

[Volvobrick]

Is property a sure bet? Probably it depends on the stage of development of the city/country. Look at Tokyo, slow growth, aging population. Is Singapore at that point yet? Maybe with new immigration, we can push back the peak some more years. 

And it depends on the age and employment status of the buyer. If no longer employed (like certain brotherhood here) or too senior, then no longer able to leverage, reducing the returns and other investments will be more attractive. Like leaving money in CPF for miserable 2.5%.

I took my risks when much younger and maxed out, but now banks won't lend me anymore! Want to risk also cannot.... 

Buying to live in is totally different from investing.  Get a place you like, feel comfortable, and enjoy. Life can be short. Good luck for potential buyers! 

[therock]

Yep

If cap appreciation wasn't a big deal, those small HDB terrace homes in Queenstown are rather nice.

Decent plot for a couple, near the train station..

I have an uncle staying near Jln Tua Kong, and his single storey place is nice too. Even has an air well, three bedrooms, high ceilings. Good enough for a small family.

 

[Invigorated]

39 minutes ago, Alfc said:

  

There are always plus and minus on the various modes of investments, be it properties, equities market, CPF, endowment plans, fixed deposit etc. When one tend to over focus on only the plus, the outliers (as selective supporting evidence) rather than the overall, a sole selected monetary yardstick (profit, return %? what about cashflow, liquidity etc), ignore or play down risks, then the agenda becomes obviously very opinionated and one-sided. 

Personally, I am not against any mode of investment as long as one walks in knowingly with eyes open and be responsible for own actions be it for better or worse (even black swan events are no exception or excuse as these can be planned as a risk even if dunno when or what will happen).    

Applaud you for the attempt.

For properties, imo, the past glories are over and those that make good money are mostly bought pre 2011/12 (myself included). Sure still will have good finds but no longer just a "buy anything and hold" strategy anymore. A 2-3% annual appreciation (overall notwithstanding black swan in certain years like now) is nothing to shout about to me (given the effort and risk involved) and not even an enticing enough reason to go all-in solely into this. These are just monetary considerations. What about the non-monetary aspect like constant pressure of job security, ability to find tenants, time and effort to upkeep etc.

For today, in a way, the CPF can be viewed as a quasi "property investment" in some sense. There are commonalities (e.g mid-long term horizon, need holding or tahan power) and the power of compounding comes when the base built up becomes sizeable. Your so-called "collect rental" happens after 55 if you choose to take out the 2.5%(OA) or 4% (RA) yield (this is net basis and almost risk free effort free, not gross) once you fulfill all the FRS criteria. Sole biggest risk to me is policy risk. So not really a loss cause. 

Everyone who buy toto think they got inspiration and may just be the one. But in reality, we know the truth who the real winner is.

Agree on many of your points here.

Just to add on my 2c.. In the early days, we have to acknowledge that there was more volatility aka wide swings in prices, and hence buyers were rewarded with higher returns. This was the time we see the likes of young Throttle2 in the market. One could make a couple of hundred Ks and easily lose as much. Just looking at those who are still bleeding from properties bought at peak in the past and also those making similar exaggerated profits too on the other end.

Today, with so many CMs implemented and so many barriers of entry, the stability of the market comes with lower expected returns. Smaller risks, smaller expected capital appreciation. Different profile of buyers.

If we were still to be living in the policies of old, we will definitely see a wider collapse of prices today during covid.

However,  policies like TDSR, SSD, ABSDs have ensured stability in the system and these weren't present in the past. The low interest rates now are the icing on the cake and all these have kept prices somewhat elevated. It is also this stability that attracts a different pool of buyers, not the Throttle2 kind who look at high returns and prefer volatility, but ones who are in for the long haul.

Will prices still continue to go up in future? Imho, it is yes but the million dollar question is the extent of it. A post covid recovery will likely see more buyers entering the market after they have witnessed how stable the property market has been during this crisis and are drawn by that.

[Kopites]

1 hour ago, Kklee said:

IMHO.

I am a simple person with simple view.   
If I see property advertisement  leaflets at my doorstep and mailbox,   to me,  it means property not doing well.
 

I have sms every few days of new launch info...seeking unit for rental ....

So good or bad?

 

[Throttle2]

1 hour ago, Alfc said:

  

There are always plus and minus on the various modes of investments, be it properties, equities market, CPF, endowment plans, fixed deposit etc. When one tend to over focus on only the plus, the outliers (as selective supporting evidence) rather than the overall, a sole selected monetary yardstick (profit, return %? what about cashflow, liquidity etc), ignore or play down risks, then the agenda becomes obviously very opinionated and one-sided. 

Personally, I am not against any mode of investment as long as one walks in knowingly with eyes open and be responsible for own actions be it for better or worse (even black swan events are no exception or excuse as these can be planned as a risk even if dunno when or what will happen).    

Applaud you for the attempt.

For properties, imo, the past glories are over and those that make good money are mostly bought pre 2011/12 (myself included). Sure still will have good finds but no longer just a "buy anything and hold" strategy anymore. A 2-3% annual appreciation (overall notwithstanding black swan in certain years like now) is nothing to shout about to me (given the effort and risk involved) and not even an enticing enough reason to go all-in solely into this. These are just monetary considerations. What about the non-monetary aspect like constant pressure of job security, ability to find tenants, time and effort to upkeep etc.

For today, in a way, the CPF can be viewed as a quasi "property investment" in some sense. There are commonalities (e.g mid-long term horizon, need holding or tahan power) and the power of compounding comes when the base built up becomes sizeable. Your so-called "collect rental" happens after 55 if you choose to take out the 2.5%(OA) or 4% (RA) yield (this is net basis and almost risk free effort free, not gross) once you fulfill all the FRS criteria. Sole biggest risk to me is policy risk. So not really a loss cause. 

Everyone who buy toto think they got inspiration and may just be the one. But in reality, we know the truth who the real winner is.

Super like 👍👍👍

Well said.

[Throttle2]

2 hours ago, Ct3833 said:

dont lah, i am talking about my peers, not me, now I am not just the poorest guy in town, I am also jobless. Win what win？ I no money, but happy 就好。😄

Ooooi DaGe you trying to knock me off my seat as MCF no. 1 jobless guy?

By the way you already said it, you are happy. And that is more meaningful than heaps of money and tonnes of stress.

[Throttle2]

2 hours ago, Volvobrick said:

Is property a sure bet? Probably it depends on the stage of development of the city/country. Look at Tokyo, slow growth, aging population. Is Singapore at that point yet? Maybe with new immigration, we can push back the peak some more years. 

And it depends on the age and employment status of the buyer. If no longer employed (like certain brotherhood here) or too senior, then no longer able to leverage, reducing the returns and other investments will be more attractive. Like leaving money in CPF for miserable 2.5%.

I took my risks when much younger and maxed out, but now banks won't lend me anymore! Want to risk also cannot.... 

Buying to live in is totally different from investing.  Get a place you like, feel comfortable, and enjoy. Life can be short. Good luck for potential buyers! 

Another good post 👍