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Economic Impact on S'pore? - Wuhan Virus vs SARS Outbreak.

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noobcarbuyer

noobcarbuyer

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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/wuhan-virus-likely-to-have-much-wider-and-deeper-impact

Wuhan virus likely to have 'much wider and deeper impact'

China's economy and its trade with Singapore and the rest of the world have grown enormously since the Sars outbreak in 2003: Chan Chun Sing

THE Wuhan virus outbreak is likely to have a much wider and deeper impact on the world economy than the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) episode of 2003, and Singaporeans need to be mentally prepared for this, said Minister for Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing on Sunday.

Mr Chan was speaking to reporters during his visit to Oasia Hotel Downtown, where a 73-year-old Chinese national had stayed before testing positive for the coronavirus.

He said: "I've heard a lot of people comparing this episode with the Sars episode many years ago in 2003. I think we shouldn't do that kind of direct comparison... Comparing 2003 to now, China's GDP (gross domestic product) has gone up by about four times. Our trade with China has also increased by nearly four times."

China's GDP as a proportion of the entire world's GDP has more than doubled since 2003, from 9 per cent then to more than 19 per cent today. Mr Chan added: "The impact of any disruption to the Chinese economy and the supply chains is likely to be a much wider, much deeper impact because of the interlinkages with the global economy, and certainly with the Singapore economy."

It is too early to say exactly how big the impact will be. But as the rest of the world progressively tightens their border controls, there will be "serious implications" on tourism and other industries, including manufacturing, Mr Chan said.

On Friday, Singapore announced that it will bar anyone with a Chinese passport from entering the country, with exceptions made for Singapore permanent residents, those on long-term passes, and those who can show they have not been to China recently.

Other visitors who have been to mainland China within the past 14 days will also be denied entry. In the 13 hours since these travel restrictions kicked in with effect from 11.59pm on Saturday, 15 travellers have been refused entry to Singapore.

The bans do not affect existing work pass holders, although about 30,000 work pass holders who are of Chinese nationality left Singapore over the Chinese New Year break and have not returned, Manpower Minister Josephine Teo said on Sunday.

These work visa holders, who would be required to go on a 14-day leave of absence when they return to Singapore, make up less than 1 per cent of the work force here, she said.

Chinese tourists account for around 20 per cent of Singapore's total international visitor arrivals, with about 3.6 million visitors to Singapore in 2019.

To dampen the punch for tourism businesses, the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) announced on Sunday that it will waive licence fees for hotels, travel agents and tourist guides.

It will also defray enhanced cleaning costs of hotels that provided accommodation to confirmed and suspected cases of Wuhan virus infections.

Mr Chan promised that the measures taken by STB to support affected businesses will be followed by a wider relief package that will be unveiled in the Budget speech on Feb 18.

For example, some tour agents and F&B businesses have been very badly hit because 80 to 90 per cent of their business comes from the Chinese market, Mr Chan noted.

"Even beyond the tourism related industries, what people are most concerned with is cash flow," Mr Chan said, noting that the ability of businesses to support jobs depends on their survival. "Companies have also asked if we can help them with temporary bridging loans. This is something that we are studying to see how to help them with their cash flow."

The Ministry is also studying how it can help defray costs for the aviation sector while maintaining air connectivity between Singapore and China, he said.

Mr Chan added: "For the taxi industry and the private hire industry, we will be looking into measures to see how we can help the drivers alleviate some of the temporary cash flow issues that they have at this point in time."

He reassured Singaporean businesses and Singaporean workers that "we stand together with them", adding: "We do have the means to help them tide over this difficult moment, but we must do this with a long-term perspective. We must make sure that whatever we do is sustainable because we are not sure how long this crisis will last.

"We must be mentally prepared, psychologically prepared that the impact of this, compared to Sars could be wider, deeper and longer."

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Watwheels

Watwheels

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Looking at the virus pattern, they usually peak during winter season. After winter the virus will disappear. I think that's what they are hoping for. So likely they will adopt the "wait and see" before deciding.

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noobcarbuyer

noobcarbuyer

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  On 2/3/2020 at 1:51 AM, Watwheels said:

Looking at the virus pattern, they usually peak during winter season. After winter the virus will disappear. I think that's what they are hoping for. So likely they will adopt the "wait and see" before deciding.

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Cold wintry weather for central China will last until March 2020. 

At this rate, must wait until April 2020 at the earliest. A lot can happen in the next 3 months. 

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Neost

Neost

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  On 2/3/2020 at 1:52 AM, noobcarbuyer said:

For this to happen must wait until hell freezes over. LOL

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But this is one thing that can help the bottom line immediately and with impact. 

Other than this, I don't really see what kind of help can save a Company other than direct cash injection

 

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Throttle2

Throttle2

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Wah steady.  

Quickly say impact is very very big so that when the results really come in bad, its expected.  And if results come in ok, its very very good.  

Yawn.....

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inlinesix

inlinesix

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  On 2/3/2020 at 2:43 AM, Throttle2 said:

Wah steady.  

Quickly say impact is very very big so that when the results really come in bad, its expected.  And if results come in ok, its very very good.  

Yawn.....

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Expectation management

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Tianmo

Tianmo

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  On 2/3/2020 at 2:38 AM, Neost said:

But this is one thing that can help the bottom line immediately and with impact. 

Other than this, I don't really see what kind of help can save a Company other than direct cash injection

 

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they will give you delay payment, installment plans, lower interest loans, etc...[laugh][laugh][laugh]

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noobcarbuyer

noobcarbuyer

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https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/u-turn-in-regional-business-sentiment-as-tourists-stay-home

"U-turn in regional business sentiment as tourists stay home"

After a year and a half of a trade war between the world's two biggest economies that choked off exports and foreign investment for the region, this was supposed to be South-east Asia's year of recovery.

A month into 2020 and that prospect is in doubt.

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Enye

Enye

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wah....tide is receding

who is still swimming naked now is the time to put on your swimming trunks before it's too late

😅

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