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Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

RadX

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Wind30

Wind30

Turbocharged
  On 1/22/2019 at 9:29 AM, Throttle2 said:

Aiyoh. Why so defensive?

Dont worry lah, sure make money for you lah

 

Visioncrest is ok for rental purely due to location but everything else is not comparable to many other developments.

Entrance is a stupid sloping road down.

More like some flatted factory.

Common areas are small and cramp

Swimming pool area looks crappy

Heng got tennis court.

The conservatory development on the contrary adds some character.

 

So thats why price cannot go rocket high.

But i think its decent value for D9 lor.....

I am not defensive lah. I actually am interested in knowing bad stuff about it in case I missed something. All the points is normal because it is not a full condo. Apartment type. I don’t think there is any full condo right across orchard road. All is apartment type I think. Neighbouring Oxley rise has much less land... Swimming pool is on the building.

 

The tennis court always got nobody.

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Icedbs

Icedbs

Turbocharged
(edited)

VisionCrest is not at a "low price" 

 

It is only low price because most retail consumers compare it with the District 9 freehold avg $psf.  As of 2018, D9 Freehold avg $psf is $2652 vs the 2018 avg $psf for VisionCrest which is $1997

 

So it looks way undervalued, but the age of the condo need to be taken into consideration even if they are freehold. 

 

Hence, if I take all the freehold & 999 D9 condos that TOP between 2005 and 2009,  the avg $psf transacted is $2110. VisionCrest TOP in 2007, so the avg $psf of $1997 is still good, but certainly not earth shattering low as compared to its similar age competitors in D9

 

But my bigger concern is not on the above, which is actually still ok, My bigger concern is that this condo is quite lagging in terms of trend growth especially when we look at the avg price increase for freehold D9 between 2010 and 2018, over a period of 8 years. (see below).  When compare with similar age freehold condos, VC avg price had grown only about 3.5% as compared to 12.8% of the similar age D9 condos.  There is something that cause it to lag, and a buyer for this condo need to accept that this condo may not appreciate as fast as the rest unless there is a catalyst in a near future that unlock that potential price growth. 

 

post-69683-0-91815200-1548164968_thumb.jpg

 

Having said that, it is not all bad. Really depends on what the buyer is looking for. Want a good  location, want consistent tenancy, want a D9 freehold within fair market value, this tick all the boxes. And it may even be very resistant to any property downturn compare to the rest. If Wind30 had already bought it, I am sure he has weigh all the pro and cons and found that it is something he can accept.  I just want to present it in a more balance and deeper perspective so that we can see  the bigger picture about this condo. 

 

 

Edited by Icedbs
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Wind30

Wind30

Turbocharged
(edited)
  On 1/22/2019 at 1:51 PM, Icedbs said:

VisionCrest is not at a "low price"

 

It is only low price because most retail consumers compare it with the District 9 freehold avg $psf. As of 2018, D9 Freehold avg $psf is $2652 vs the 2018 avg $psf for VisionCrest which is $1997

 

So it looks way undervalued, but the age of the condo need to be taken into consideration even if they are freehold.

 

Hence, if I take all the freehold & 999 D9 condos that TOP between 2005 and 2009, the avg $psf transacted is $2110. VisionCrest TOP in 2007, so the avg $psf of $1997 is still good, but certainly not earth shattering low as compared to its similar age competitors in D9

 

But my bigger concern is not on the above, which is actually still ok, My bigger concern is that this condo is quite lagging in terms of trend growth especially when we look at the avg price increase for freehold D9 between 2010 and 2018, over a period of 8 years. (see below). When compare with similar age freehold condos, VC avg price had grown only about 3.5% as compared to 12.8% of the similar age D9 condos. There is something that cause it to lag, and a buyer for this condo need to accept that this condo may not appreciate as fast as the rest unless there is a catalyst in a near future that unlock that potential price growth.

 

attachicon.gifd9visioncrest.jpg

 

Having said that, it is not all bad. Really depends on what the buyer is looking for. Want a good location, want consistent tenancy, want a D9 freehold within fair market value, this tick all the boxes. And it may even be very resistant to any property downturn compare to the rest. If Wind30 had already bought it, I am sure he has weigh all the pro and cons and found that it is something he can accept. I just want to present it in a more balance and deeper perspective so that we can see the bigger picture about this condo.

Thanks for the analysis. I went to 99.co and searched for freehold/999 condos in d9 that TOP between 2005 and 2009. You can see on the map where your sample for comparison is. Location wise visioncrest is one of the best of not the best. The suites@central is the other property that is close to orchad road. Rest of the other property are pretty far away in Little India and Clarke quay. Did u use these properties as sample? If so, visioncrest is way undervalued if u take into account it’s location. I think the reason why visioncrest is cheaper is that it is an apartment, not condo. So like throttle said, the pool is small, it is packed, etc. U have to give up something for its location I Guess.

 

Something I don’t understand is why the price did not go up like the rest... notice that your same analysis would paint a very different story in 2017... visioncrest did better than your comparison sample.

 

I would like to think that visioncrest is still stuck at 2017 price due to the limited volume. That to me is a huge plus if I want to get something in 2018....

Edited by Wind30
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Nav14

Nav14

6th Gear
  On 1/22/2019 at 1:51 PM, Icedbs said:

VisionCrest is not at a "low price" 

 

It is only low price because most retail consumers compare it with the District 9 freehold avg $psf.  As of 2018, D9 Freehold avg $psf is $2652 vs the 2018 avg $psf for VisionCrest which is $1997

 

So it looks way undervalued, but the age of the condo need to be taken into consideration even if they are freehold. 

 

Hence, if I take all the freehold & 999 D9 condos that TOP between 2005 and 2009,  the avg $psf transacted is $2110. VisionCrest TOP in 2007, so the avg $psf of $1997 is still good, but certainly not earth shattering low as compared to its similar age competitors in D9

 

But my bigger concern is not on the above, which is actually still ok, My bigger concern is that this condo is quite lagging in terms of trend growth especially when we look at the avg price increase for freehold D9 between 2010 and 2018, over a period of 8 years. (see below).  When compare with similar age freehold condos, VC avg price had grown only about 3.5% as compared to 12.8% of the similar age D9 condos.  There is something that cause it to lag, and a buyer for this condo need to accept that this condo may not appreciate as fast as the rest unless there is a catalyst in a near future that unlock that potential price growth. 

 

attachicon.gifd9visioncrest.jpg

 

Having said that, it is not all bad. Really depends on what the buyer is looking for. Want a good  location, want consistent tenancy, want a D9 freehold within fair market value, this tick all the boxes. And it may even be very resistant to any property downturn compare to the rest. If Wind30 had already bought it, I am sure he has weigh all the pro and cons and found that it is something he can accept.  I just want to present it in a more balance and deeper perspective so that we can see  the bigger picture about this condo. 

Forget about comparing it with D9 condos. It is even lower than many condos with similar attributes at the Newton/Novena locale, which is a slightly inferior location compared to Visioncrest.

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Stary

Stary

Turbocharged
(edited)
  On 1/23/2019 at 1:00 AM, Nav14 said:

Forget about comparing it with D9 condos. It is even lower than many condos with similar attributes at the Newton/Novena locale, which is a slightly inferior location compared to Visioncrest.

 

brother, I think the purpose of his analysis is to show an apple to apple comparison la.

 

I mean you can even find freehold $1200 psf condo in D9, 10 minute walk to Somerset MRT...Cavenagh Gardens .....but 43 years old...you want or not?  Neighbour to our Istana somemore.

 

Might as well say why consider VisionCrest when Cavenagh Gardens is almost half its price?  But one is 11 years old, one is 43 years old, age has a big impact to their prices.

Edited by Starry
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

It still ultimately runs back to purpose of purchase.

 

The current market is so fragmented and personalised, whether a property is a good buy, largely depends on one's intention and ultimate deployment.

 

Just for example, no point buying a very old property for rewiring and 200K renovation for own stay purposes, when it could get enbloc the moment the reno is done. But for investment purposes it could make sense.

 

Invest in a very large penthouse maybe also no point. The segment is so hard to find buyers. Rent out also very low yield. But for own stay, it might be a good choice if one can appreciate that structure.

 

As long as intention and type purchased is aligned, it will be a gain.

Edited by Showster
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Wind30

Wind30

Turbocharged
(edited)
  On 1/23/2019 at 2:33 AM, Starry said:

brother, I think the purpose of his analysis is to show an apple to apple comparison la.

 

I mean you can even find freehold $1200 psf condo in D9, 10 minute walk to Somerset MRT...Cavenagh Gardens .....but 43 years old...you want or not? Neighbour to our Istana somemore.

 

Might as well say why consider VisionCrest when Cavenagh Gardens is almost half its price? But one is 11 years old, one is 43 years old, age has a big impact to their prices.

Cavenagh is interesting. There is no transaction in the past 1 year due to trying for enbloc. It’s location is not good though as it faces the cte. It’s Super cheap though but the rental is Low too.

 

I think using the same age condo for comparison is good as they usually have the same properties as they were built under the same regulations and market conditions. But d9 is a pretty big area and there is a big diff between Little India and orchad.

 

I think a big portion of buyers are for investment. We don’t care if property is old, new, as Long as it fits the budget, the only consideration is how much money one can make and risk.

Edited by Wind30
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
  On 1/23/2019 at 4:43 AM, Wind30 said:

Cavenagh is interesting. There is no transaction in the past 1 year due to trying for enbloc. Itâs location is not good though as it faces the cte. Itâs Super cheap though but the rental is Low too.

 

I think using the same age condo for comparison is good as they usually have the same properties as they were built under the same regulations and market conditions. But d9 is a pretty big area and there is a big diff between Little India and orchad.

 

I think a big portion of buyers are for investment. We donât care if property is old, new, as Long as it fits the budget, the only consideration is how much money one can make and risk.

Depends on how you chose to deploy it, the sole focus on budget and money gains can result in huge gains but can also cause lots of heartache.
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Sdf4786k

Sdf4786k

Twincharged
  On 1/22/2019 at 1:51 PM, Icedbs said:

VisionCrest is not at a "low price" 

 

It is only low price because most retail consumers compare it with the District 9 freehold avg $psf.  As of 2018, D9 Freehold avg $psf is $2652 vs the 2018 avg $psf for VisionCrest which is $1997

 

So it looks way undervalued, but the age of the condo need to be taken into consideration even if they are freehold. 

 

Hence, if I take all the freehold & 999 D9 condos that TOP between 2005 and 2009,  the avg $psf transacted is $2110. VisionCrest TOP in 2007, so the avg $psf of $1997 is still good, but certainly not earth shattering low as compared to its similar age competitors in D9

 

But my bigger concern is not on the above, which is actually still ok, My bigger concern is that this condo is quite lagging in terms of trend growth especially when we look at the avg price increase for freehold D9 between 2010 and 2018, over a period of 8 years. (see below).  When compare with similar age freehold condos, VC avg price had grown only about 3.5% as compared to 12.8% of the similar age D9 condos.  There is something that cause it to lag, and a buyer for this condo need to accept that this condo may not appreciate as fast as the rest unless there is a catalyst in a near future that unlock that potential price growth. 

 

attachicon.gifd9visioncrest.jpg

 

Having said that, it is not all bad. Really depends on what the buyer is looking for. Want a good  location, want consistent tenancy, want a D9 freehold within fair market value, this tick all the boxes. And it may even be very resistant to any property downturn compare to the rest. If Wind30 had already bought it, I am sure he has weigh all the pro and cons and found that it is something he can accept.  I just want to present it in a more balance and deeper perspective so that we can see  the bigger picture about this condo. 

 

I suppose in essence its neither high nor low.

 

Just like comparing Conti like Renault and BMW would be quite a fair bit different from comparing Renault and Skoda which is more apt.

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Nav14

Nav14

6th Gear
  On 1/23/2019 at 2:33 AM, Starry said:

brother, I think the purpose of his analysis is to show an apple to apple comparison la.

 

I mean you can even find freehold $1200 psf condo in D9, 10 minute walk to Somerset MRT...Cavenagh Gardens .....but 43 years old...you want or not?  Neighbour to our Istana somemore.

 

Might as well say why consider VisionCrest when Cavenagh Gardens is almost half its price?  But one is 11 years old, one is 43 years old, age has a big impact to their prices.

I am referring to comparing Visioncrest to some condos in D11 with similar "attributes", which means around the same age and not 11 yrs vs 43 yrs. 

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