Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

[Mercs]

www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/era’s-plush-targets-millennials-en-bloc-millionaires-buying-luxury-homes

ERA’s Plush targets millennials, en bloc millionaires buying luxury homes

Jan 13, 2019

[Mercs]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/south-beach-residences-draws-chinese-buyers

South Beach Residences draws Chinese buyers

Jan 11, 2019

[Mercs]

https://www.edgeprop.sg/property-news/penthouse-stellar-sees-138-mil-profit

Penthouse at The Stellar sees $1.38 mil profit

Jan 14, 2019

[Mercs]

Dec 21 to 30, 2018

[Mercs]

  On 1/12/2019 at 3:50 AM, Volvobrick said:

Insanity - doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results. Einstien said one!

 

Anyway good luck to anyone having an unit there.

Many of these enbloc sites just trying their luck, can sell high sell or else no sell, with some even raising reserve prices

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/dairy-farm-hikes-price-to-s184b-in-push-for-80-owner-sign-up

Dairy Farm hikes price to S$1.84b in push for 80% owner sign-up

Jan 4, 2019

 

  Quote

Another mega site, Pine Grove, raised its reserve price to S$1.86 billion from S$1.72 billion

 

The 99-year leasehold Mandarin Gardens also upped its asking price by close to 12.5 per cent to S$2.79 billion in November

[Mercs]

  On 1/11/2019 at 10:36 AM, Showster said:

Not worrying. Even 60 sites also won’t have 50,000.

 

At most 30,000.

Haha not even 30k, for those bigger projects (above 1k units) may have some urgency to launch early, allow ample time to meet absd deadline.

 

Developers with smaller projects or less landbank may opt to hold for later launches to sell at future higher psf.

 

For 2019/2020 probably only around 17k per year, while the rest will only be in 2021 and beyond

[sginvestor]

i find this fascinating...

 

https://research.sginvestors.io/2019/01/singapore-property-developers-dbs-group-research-2019-01-03.html

 

 by DBS:

 

At the assumed primary market transaction volume of 7,500-8,500 annually, the market absorption rate is estimated to be c.5.1x when compared against the supply of close to 41,000 units (11,000 units from unlaunched phases from existing projects and another 30,000 from projects that have yet to hit the market). At absorption rates of >3.0x, we typically have seen weakness in property prices.

[Sdf4786k]

  On 1/14/2019 at 4:23 PM, sginvestor said:

i find this fascinating...

 

https://research.sginvestors.io/2019/01/singapore-property-developers-dbs-group-research-2019-01-03.html

 

 by DBS:

 

At the assumed primary market transaction volume of 7,500-8,500 annually, the market absorption rate is estimated to be c.5.1x when compared against the supply of close to 41,000 units (11,000 units from unlaunched phases from existing projects and another 30,000 from projects that have yet to hit the market). At absorption rates of >3.0x, we typically have seen weakness in property prices.

 

does that equates to equity for property developer should be cautious for investors in the stock mkt?

[Nemesis_lane]

  On 1/14/2019 at 4:23 PM, sginvestor said:

i find this fascinating...

 

https://research.sginvestors.io/2019/01/singapore-property-developers-dbs-group-research-2019-01-03.html

 

 by DBS:

 

At the assumed primary market transaction volume of 7,500-8,500 annually, the market absorption rate is estimated to be c.5.1x when compared against the supply of close to 41,000 units (11,000 units from unlaunched phases from existing projects and another 30,000 from projects that have yet to hit the market). At absorption rates of >3.0x, we typically have seen weakness in property prices.

A good artilce but one key element it has left out is the 'kiasuness' culture of the Singaporean. Many people i have enquired from have commented that they are buying simply because they worry that the price will go up. It is partly this fear that is also playing to the developers advantage. 

[Showster]

Analysts always have to be more sanguine.

 

But at least they acknowledged that the actual confirmed supply is only 30,000 instead of 50,000.

 

In the meantime, this is the last call for quantum friendly units. I.e. after that batch of 41,000, it's certainly going to be quantum unfriendly and the supply would be drastically diminished (out of land).

 

I would be extra worried if I was looking to buy and would not rest on my laurels in 2019.

[Enye]

only in sg, property does not follow the natural law of demand and supply

 

it only follows this law.... under supply price up a lot, over supply price up a little

 

because everyone has holding power

 

guru say one

[Showster]

Everything we can up supply. Cars, TV, iPhones, stocks, money supply.

 

Only land is ultimately limited. So much planning has to be made to ensure there is continual new source of land, mostly from recycling existing plots.

 

We can raise short term supply but there is no way to increase long term supply. We have hit the wall already or very very close to actual limit.

 

Very limited reclamation (Malaysia troubles plus limitations of deep waters) , conservationists up in arms over Tengah reuse for residential uses. Even graves are being exhumed from Bt Brown and Lim Chu Kang to make way for the living.

 

 

  On 1/15/2019 at 2:31 AM, Enye said:

only in sg, property does not follow the natural law of demand and supply

it only follows this law.... under supply price up a lot, over supply price up a little

because everyone has holding power

guru say one

Edited January 15, 2019 by Showster

[Wind30]

  On 1/15/2019 at 3:15 AM, Showster said:

Everything we can up supply. Cars, TV, iPhones, stocks, money supply.

 

Only land is ultimately limited. So much planning has to be made to ensure there is continual new source of land, mostly from recycling existing plots.

 

We can raise short term supply but there is no way to increase long term supply. We have hit the wall already or very very close to actual limit.

 

Very limited reclamation (Malaysia troubles plus limitations of deep waters) , conservationists up in arms over Tengah reuse for residential uses. Even graves are being exhumed from Bt Brown and Lim Chu Kang to make way for the living.

 

I don't think the above is correct. If you are looking at freehold landed, maybe the supply is limited. 

 

99year Condo, I don't think we are limited by land. You also say government can get land from a lot of places... there is still quite a bit of empty land in Singapore

[Victor68]

It depends what population we wish to support on this tiny dot. 8 millions or 16 millions.

 

It is not about how expensive your tiny box cost but what kind of life you wish to live. So what if your asset paper value is $10 M? Unless you decide to leave and draw out the $, it is still just paper value where you can reinvest into this scentless equation.  

[Showster]

Maybe you should try to use Google Map and switch to Satellite image to see the only remaining undeveloped areas in Singapore, and how tough / expensive it is to use the areas that haven't yet been developed yet. See carefully where the water bodies are as well in case some of it is mistaken as land.

 

HDB, LH and FH private, landed etc, any dot you can pin / hold in this area is inherently worth a lot. . The only real difference is how much the banks allow you to recognise the value.

 

 

  On 1/15/2019 at 4:14 AM, Wind30 said:

I don't think the above is correct. If you are looking at freehold landed, maybe the supply is limited. 

 

99year Condo, I don't think we are limited by land. You also say government can get land from a lot of places... there is still quite a bit of empty land in Singapore

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by Showster

[Hoseyboh]

  On 1/15/2019 at 7:26 AM, Showster said:

Maybe you should try to use Google Map and switch to Satellite image to see the only remaining undeveloped areas in Singapore, and how tough / expensive it is to use the areas that haven't yet been developed yet.

 

HDB, LH and FH private, landed etc, any dot you can pin / hold in this area is inherently worth a lot. . The only real difference is how much the banks allow you to recognise the value.

Eh...you missed out SAF camps....They have the biggest land bank...

[Showster]

  On 1/15/2019 at 7:32 AM, Hoseyboh said:

Eh...you missed out SAF camps....They have the biggest land bank...ð¤

True.

 

But how many camps do we know were returned in the last 10 years? Maybe if count back 30 years, there may be a small handful.

 

But there is a limit. Some places need to be kept as reserve or training or just army base. If not, how to defend in times of need? Play laser quest under our HDB void decks?

[Wind30]

  On 1/15/2019 at 7:26 AM, Showster said:

Maybe you should try to use Google Map and switch to Satellite image to see the only remaining undeveloped areas in Singapore, and how tough / expensive it is to use the areas that haven't yet been developed yet. See carefully where the water bodies are as well in case some of it is mistaken as land.

 

HDB, LH and FH private, landed etc, any dot you can pin / hold in this area is inherently worth a lot. . The only real difference is how much the banks allow you to recognise the value.

 

I have and that is why I said land is not a problem. do you know how much land on the average the government releases for private condos? It is really not a lot.

 

There is still plenty of land in Singapore