Private Property prices......still up or down? Part II

[BanCoe]

Heard Windy Heights enbloc closed yesterday ..... no bidders .... 3rd time round .... now open to private arrangement .... dunno can garner or not any price

[Invigorated]

MAS watching property market after curbs

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/mas-watching-property-market-after-curbs

 

Singapore's surging property market had been out of sync amid slowing economic growth and a rising interest rate environment, and that was not sustainable, Mr Menon said.

 

"The property market, before we implemented the cooling measures, was pretty hot," said Mr Menon. "This was a wrong time to see a renewed property bubble. Not that there was a bubble, but we wanted to preempt that."

[Roh96]

MAS watching property market after curbs

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/mas-watching-property-market-after-curbs

 

Singapore's surging property market had been out of sync amid slowing economic growth and a rising interest rate environment, and that was not sustainable, Mr Menon said.

 

"The property market, before we implemented the cooling measures, was pretty hot," said Mr Menon. "This was a wrong time to see a renewed property bubble. Not that there was a bubble, but we wanted to preempt that."

When MAS talks, i suggest we better listen. I rather hear from regulator than some unknown analysts from foreign banks forecasting whatnot on prices to double by 2030. So key takeaway.

-market was hot

-wrong time to renew bubble

-prices not sustainable

Good luck.

[Showster]

Those with authority and in power have an agenda.

 

We should also have our own.

 

He said price GROWTH may transit into bubble, but it hasn’t yet. Going forward, we can indeed expect stable price growth overall, but depending on what one is buying, the growth will be very unevenly felt across the board.

 

When MAS talks, i suggest we better listen. I rather hear from regulator than some unknown analysts from foreign banks forecasting whatnot on prices to double by 2030. So key takeaway.

-market was hot

-wrong time to renew bubble

-prices not sustainable

Good luck.

[Roh96]

Those with authority and in power have an agenda.

 

We should also have our own.

 

He said price GROWTH may transit into bubble, but it hasnât yet. Going forward, we can indeed expect stable price growth overall, but depending on what one is buying, the growth will be very unevenly felt across the board.

 

 

Pls tell me who dont have agenda. Analyst, agent, CEO of property company, bank. Which one of the above has no agenda?

Yes we should afteral form our own views and decide. But i rather gather facts from those who have the power.

[Showster]

And to inform you as well, those with power want the price growth to be sustainable, nearing the 2-3% annual growth projections that I have written so much about. This is a reasonable and fair projection based on long term annual income growth. Similarly, we can also aim for 10% increase in GDP (we really can), but that is not sustainable and will create problems later on. 2-3% will make everyone more or less content with the situation as it evolves.

 

Look at all the CMs implemented over the past dozen years, the timing and intensity, when they were relaxed etc. The overall intention is merely to keep the growth sustainable and intact.

 

If it deviates in the negative projections, it will be against their intention and they would move swiftly to correct it using any one of a dozen policies.

 

Pls tell me who dont have agenda. Analyst, agent, CEO of property company, bank. Which one of the above has no agenda?
Yes we should afteral form our own views and decide. But i rather gather facts from those who have the power.

 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Showster

[F10_Blackhawk]

MAS watching property market after curbs

 

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/mas-watching-property-market-after-curbs

 

Singapore's surging property market had been out of sync amid slowing economic growth and a rising interest rate environment, and that was not sustainable, Mr Menon said.

 

"The property market, before we implemented the cooling measures, was pretty hot," said Mr Menon. "This was a wrong time to see a renewed property bubble. Not that there was a bubble, but we wanted to preempt that."

Quoting DA man "The property market always warrants close watching, whichever direction it is inching towards," Mr Menon said.

 

Unless we expect Singapore economy to decline from now onwards, I expect the regulator to ensure ppty will grow at a pace in line with economic growth. So prices grew 10% this year (YoY) so the regulators jump in. No issue for buyers, be it speculators or genuine buyers since min holding period nowadays are 3 years (to avoid SSD). Actually this is welcome news imo. He said and I quote `whichever direction...’ And this is telling....which means if ppty prices decline while economy is growing 9even if its’s slow), we can expect cooling measures to be removed and even `heating’ measures to be implemented.

 

So those who are vested, dun worry man, Ai Zai...just wait for the economy to catch up while you wait out the SSD anyway. Meanwhile, you are either waiting for project to TOP, collecting your rental or using it while waiting for SSD to expire and assess the suitation again whether to hold or sell. Gone are the days when ppty investors make buy/sell decisions with hours of receiving an OTP and those days have gone like years ago already. Prices are unlikely to drop unless the economy also retreat. It will probably stay flat.

 

However for those who want to buy but still holding out...i suggest you think carefully as well. For some of us, we really can’t wait too long as the loan we can get from the bank is getting shorter. prices may not drop, it might hold steady but you may also not borrow as much. But for those younger folks where time is on your side, good on you....time is on your side to see if prices will drop. Especially if you are upgrading, look at the GAP between your current place and your target ppty. If the GAP narrows, that’s when you should strike if prices drop. Otherwise if you wait too long, usually the GAP widens for upgraders and it becomes hard to upgrade in times of a growing market.

[Invigorated]

When MAS talks, i suggest we better listen. I rather hear from regulator than some unknown analysts from foreign banks forecasting whatnot on prices to double by 2030. So key takeaway.

-market was hot

-wrong time to renew bubble

-prices not sustainable

Good luck.

I agree with your viewpoints that market was too hot for its own good and a bubble is something the government doesn't want. preventing it was a good move the last quarter but with greater barrier of entry, I'm not so sure if future buyers will be better off. for the general market that's in it, at least there's stability. prices are now moving sideways as the market is looking for direction. ocr resale is still moving up as of last stats.

 

reading between the lines, it means that the government does not see a bubble yet and prices now are still reasonable, though a sustained exponential increase like the last few quarters isn't.

 

my 2c, the reason singapore is a hotspot for investors is the stability in prices due to government intervention. just like our currency strength, the government has their safety ppty bandwidth and as hinted many times before, prices shouldn't deviate from economic fundamentals.

[Wind30]

Heard Windy Heights enbloc closed yesterday ..... no bidders .... 3rd time round .... now open to private arrangement .... dunno can garner or not any price

I dont think this is news at all... when every enbloc cannot close. I am still waiting for the news of a successful enbloc post cooling...

 

Its obvious what developers feel about the Singapore property market no matter what they say... it is where they put their money that speak the loudest

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-allow-singdollar-rise-slightly-monetary-policy-singapore-10816618

 

Like that must offer higher interest rate than other countries?

 

I thought just keeping up with usa rates is hard enough...

[Showster]

With a strengthening Singapore currency amidst other generally depreciating currencies in Asia, property here will only become more and more attractive. This move also caps the max that interest rates can go.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/mas-to-slightly-tighten-monetary-policy-further-allowing-singdollar-to-rise-faster

 

Don't wait until developers' interests are raised again, and disappear when it becomes hot again.

 

I dont think this is news at all... when every enbloc cannot close. I am still waiting for the news of a successful enbloc post cooling...

Its obvious what developers feel about the Singapore property market no matter what they say... it is where they put their money that speak the loudest
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/mas-allow-singdollar-rise-slightly-monetary-policy-singapore-10816618

Like that must offer higher interest rate than other countries?

I thought just keeping up with usa rates is hard enough...

 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Showster

[Wind30]

With a strengthening Singapore currency amidst other generally depreciating currencies in Asia, property here will only become more and more attractive. This move also caps the max that interest rates can go.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/mas-to-slightly-tighten-monetary-policy-further-allowing-singdollar-to-rise-faster

 

Don't wait until developers' interests are raised again, and disappear when it becomes hot again.

 

U do know what mas is saying is that they will further increase interest rates... that is how they can appreciate the sgd.

 

I think almost everyone here can see its the start of a downturn.  The developers know it, most of us know it.

[Showster]

U do know what mas is saying is that they will further increase interest rates... that is how they can appreciate the sgd.

 

I think almost everyone here can see its the start of a downturn. The developers know it, most of us know it.

Just as in 2017, just continue to stare at the situation improving bah.

 

Singapore does not directly control interest rate. They adjust currency value to move interest rate. If adjust up then no need to increase rates too much.

 

Have said all I could, just as in 2016 and 2017.

 

See you in a years’ time.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Showster

[Roh96]

I am a layman who never studied econ. How does strengthening of SGD make property more attractive?

The same foreign currency can now exchange for lower SGD, coupled with foreigner taxes, ABSD and whatnot. I don't see any connection and logic in your claim.

 

With a strengthening Singapore currency amidst other generally depreciating currencies in Asia, property here will only become more and more attractive. This move also caps the max that interest rates can go.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/mas-to-slightly-tighten-monetary-policy-further-allowing-singdollar-to-rise-faster

 

Don't wait until developers' interests are raised again, and disappear when it becomes hot again.

 

 

[Wt_know]

with this sort of headline ... private properties cheong ah!

no $10k per month no rent ... huat ah!

Edited October 12, 2018 by Wt_know

[Enye]

I am a layman who never studied econ. How does strengthening of SGD make property more attractive?

The same foreign currency can now exchange for lower SGD, coupled with foreigner taxes, ABSD and whatnot. I don't see any connection and logic in your claim.

no need to study econs lah

 

when you had leveraged sufficiently in property, you will see the light and it will be your faith

 

 

[Showster]

I am a layman who never studied econ. How does strengthening of SGD make property more attractive?

The same foreign currency can now exchange for lower SGD, coupled with foreigner taxes, ABSD and whatnot. I don't see any connection and logic in your claim.

Ok just imagine if you were a crazy rich Malaysian, Indonesian or Chinese with briefcases on standby. Can full cash settle any investment.

 

Where would you park your money, in:

 

A) a country with depreciating currency

B) a country with appreciating currency

 

Remember it is in future continuous tense “appreciating”, rather than appreciated.

 

The disadvantage is the 20 or 30% tax to be paid upfront. So what would you do?

 

Plain English and logic, no need econs.

Edited October 12, 2018 by Showster

[Wind30]

Just as in 2017, just continue to stare at the situation improving bah.

 

Singapore does not directly control interest rate. They adjust currency value to move interest rate. If adjust up then no need to increase rates too much.

 

Have said all I could, just as in 2016 and 2017.

 

See you in a years’ time.

 

Uncle, that statement is wrong. I am from engineering but you really should read some econ 101.

 

If they adjust the currency exchange up, the interest rate need to increase more... common sense lah, if not how would you support the higher value of your exchange rate? 

 

Example, two countries a and B with two currency 1:1 and interest rate both at 1%. If country A decides to increase interest rate to 2%, what does B need to do to keep the exchange rate 1:1? They also must increase their interest rate to 2%, else everyone put their money in country A. 

 

So what if country B decides to up their exchange rate to make their currency more valuable by 2x? They have to increase their interest rate beyond 2% better than what country A is offering to get people to buy their currency at a higher price compared to A. 

 

This is a simplistic analysis but it shows the general relationship between interest rate and exchange rate. 

Edited October 12, 2018 by Wind30

[Acemundo]

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/spore-home-prices-rise-despite-cooling-measures-says-morgan-stanley

Home prices rose in four of the five previous rate hike cycles, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note to clients.