Car Sales to Slump. Really meh ?

[Sdf4786k]

Slump in Singapore vehicle sales to worsen in 2019: Fitch

 

** I doubt that would be the case. Most likely they will reduce the quota to improve the road congestion.

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/slump-in-singapore-vehicle-sales-to-worsen-in-2019-fitch

 

*********************************************************************************************The contraction in vehicle sales will accelerate next year and hit rock bottom in 2021 despite an improving consumer outlook and a rise in ride-sharing demand, said a Fitch Solutions report yesterday.

It noted that the drop in new vehicle registrations will worsen sharply from an estimated 11 per cent contraction this year to 20.1 per cent next year.

In the longer term, new vehicle registrations will continue sliding, contracting at an annual average rate of 25.4 per cent over 2020 and 2021 before bottoming out.

A rise in ride-sharing demand may also have mitigated some of the pressures during this contraction.

However, Fitch analysts said the demand for vehicles from ride-share firms is unlikely to persist to the same extent over the remainder of their forecast period as Uber agreed to sell its South-east Asia business unit to its main rival, Grab.

"We believe that this will diminish the pace at which vehicles will be purchased for ride-sharing purposes as there will be less competition and therefore less urgency to expand operating fleets in the country

 

Edited November 24, 2018 by Sdf4786k

[DACH]

They are hinting a worse off economy instead, using such baseless justifications to break the news?

 

Improving consumer outlook? 

Judging from the trade wars in the recent months, I doubt so in the coming months. 

[inlinesix]

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M02-New_Reg_by_Quota.pdf

 

Based Jan - Oct 2018, there is y.o.y. drop of 13%.

 

With zero growth of COE, it will be worse

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/MVP01-3-1_Cars_by_age.pdf

 

As of 2017, there is 68,076 vehicles that's age btw 8 and 9.

[Tohto]

COE reducing soon lah.

Just look at the number of COE release between 2010 to 2014. Numbers of car scrap will reduce, it is a cycle.

[Sdf4786k]

  On 11/24/2018 at 7:09 AM, YEN96 said:

This industry is like "Black Magic". With COE now 25k/31K, those who own cars with 40-60k or those 80-90k coe already want to dump their cars. It's a cycle, buy low sell low. This is a open fair market. Willing buyer willing seller. Those need a car will still need to pay! Just December 2017, Big cars still around coe 50k or more, less den 1 yr already lost more den 20+K!!

 

With all CEVS VEVS BULLs shite...next " FULL loan 100%" from banks coming....hahaha

 

I notice a trend in extending the COE for those cars that are well kept like Audi S3 and Miata MX5 as well as Golf GTi

  On 11/24/2018 at 6:35 AM, Davidtch said:

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M02-New_Reg_by_Quota.pdf

 

Based Jan - Oct 2018, there is y.o.y. drop of 13%.

 

With zero growth of COE, it will be worse

https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/MVP01-3-1_Cars_by_age.pdf

 

As of 2017, there is 68,076 vehicles that's age btw 8 and 9.

 

Well, my observation here is a lower growth may be in line with the expectation of car lite as well, so no biggie. 

 

BUT to those whose livelihood depends on the cars that they sell, definitely will be upset.

[Voodooman]

Demand will depend partly on PHV companies and their strategies. With Go-Jek coming into SG, demand will pick up again. It is a distortion.

 

Fitch (Written by 鬼佬?) however sees demand weakening due to high ownership cost but cost has been high for so long and income is not dropping, so i don't understand the logic behind the short term call. Most people i know still want to own a car. Maybe Sitoh is right, car ownership is no longer fashionable. Yipee... Please make it as unfashionable as possible.

[Mkl22]

It’s a nonsense article la. Everyone knows there is a quota to our coe. Registration drop means quota drop.

 

Less demand can only influence the price and never the quota.

 

The only time I know in the 20plus years of coe that the demand is less than the quota would be in 2007 during the euro4 for the commercial vehicle where there was no euro4 commercial vehicles to sell thus coe was $1 and demand was less than quota.

 

And no way will this ever happen again.

 

Dumb article written by uneducated Ang mo and our business times dumbo reporter just lapped it up like gospel. Pui!

Edited November 24, 2018 by Mkl22

[Voodooman]

  On 11/24/2018 at 8:56 AM, Mkl22 said:

Itâs a nonsense article la. Everyone knows there is a quota to our coe. Registration drop means quota drop.

 

Less demand can only influence the price and never the quota.

 

The only time I know in the 20plus years of coe that the demand is less than the quota would be in 2007 during the euro4 for the commercial vehicle where there was no euro4 commercial vehicles to sell thus coe was $1 and demand was less than quota.

 

And no way will this ever happen again.

 

Dumb article written by uneducated Ang mo and our business times dumbo reporter just lapped it up like gospel. Pui!

Yes demand is still above supply, which is fixed, otherwise we will have $1 COE. To give him benefit of doubt, his contraction in demand probably means less buyers and is reflected in weaker COE prices.

 

But contraction in vehicle sales? Sigh...

Edited November 24, 2018 by Voodooman

[Wt_know]

time to change car in 2019 ...

[Piyopico]

  On 11/24/2018 at 8:41 AM, Voodooman said:

Demand will depend partly on PHV companies and their strategies. With Go-Jek coming into SG, demand will pick up again. It is a distortion.

 

Fitch (Written by 鬼佬?) however sees demand weakening due to high ownership cost but cost has been high for so long and income is not dropping, so i don't understand the logic behind the short term call. Most people i know still want to own a car. Maybe Sitoh is right, car ownership is no longer fashionable. Yipee... Please make it as unfashionable as possible. ððð

Write dumb article never mind..... What tickles me is who actually publishes such crap......

 

Jiaklat leh. Really got nothing better to report meh......

[Ct3833]

Demand of COE will always be higher than supply, so there is nonsuch thing as slimp.

When there is lesser COE, dealers get to sell lesser cars but they will sell it at a higher margin per car to bridge (not able to make up) the profit shortfall . Some PIs may fall victim of lesser COE quota but the big guys will continue to exist waiting for the next peak cycle. Car sales in singapore cannot be used to guage the state of our economy due to the manual manipulation of COE quota.

[Voodooman]

  On 11/24/2018 at 10:55 AM, Wt_know said:

time to change car in 2019 ...

Yes. I usually drive my car till EOL or when it is no longer economical to continue its use. But if COE weakens further into 2019, it might just happen.

[Sdf4786k]

  On 11/24/2018 at 8:56 AM, Mkl22 said:

It’s a nonsense article la. Everyone knows there is a quota to our coe. Registration drop means quota drop.

 

Less demand can only influence the price and never the quota.

 

The only time I know in the 20plus years of coe that the demand is less than the quota would be in 2007 during the euro4 for the commercial vehicle where there was no euro4 commercial vehicles to sell thus coe was $1 and demand was less than quota.

 

And no way will this ever happen again.

 

Dumb article written by uneducated Ang mo and our business times dumbo reporter just lapped it up like gospel. Pui!

 

AMDK wins again I suppose .. else.. AMDK knows more, local dont have global experience

  On 11/24/2018 at 11:22 AM, Ct3833 said:

Demand of COE will always be higher than supply, so there is nonsuch thing as slimp.

When there is lesser COE, dealers get to sell lesser cars but they will sell it at a higher margin per car to bridge (not able to make up) the profit shortfall . Some PIs may fall victim of lesser COE quota but the big guys will continue to exist waiting for the next peak cycle. Car sales in singapore cannot be used to guage the state of our economy due to the manual manipulation of COE quota.

 

While I agree with you, I dont see it hitting the 90K soon unless go jek go crazy rich ...

Edited November 24, 2018 by Sdf4786k

[Vinceng]

This article seems to imply that it will snow in Singapore. 

[Watwheels]

It could be MAS restricting the loans again due to poor economy outlook.

[Vinceng]

This article seems to imply that it will snow in Singapore. 

 

You think the government will allow COE to nose dive? It will seriously affect their bottom line. If COE prices starts to drop, they will further reduce the quota or their smart scholars will come up with some tactics to cause COE prices to head North

[Ct3833]

  On 11/24/2018 at 8:56 AM, Mkl22 said:

Itâs a nonsense article la. Everyone knows there is a quota to our coe. Registration drop means quota drop.

 

Less demand can only influence the price and never the quota.

 

The only time I know in the 20plus years of coe that the demand is less than the quota would be in 2007 during the euro4 for the commercial vehicle where there was no euro4 commercial vehicles to sell thus coe was $1 and demand was less than quota.

 

And no way will this ever happen again.

 

Dumb article written by uneducated Ang mo and our business times dumbo reporter just lapped it up like gospel. Pui!

It is why they are anal-lysts.

[Mkl22]

  On 11/24/2018 at 12:55 PM, Vinceng said:

This article seems to imply that it will snow in Singapore.

 

You think the government will allow COE to nose dive? It will seriously affect their bottom line. If COE prices starts to drop, they will further reduce the quota or their smart scholars will come up with some tactics to cause COE prices to head North

Reduce quota also must be smart about it. It’s always quota x price. Reduce too much and the price increase doesn’t cover they also lose.

 

Also don’t forget that the amount that they collect from a high coe may not be for the full 10years. Many of the 2013 cars are now scrapped after 4-5years and people buy new again. Yes they earn again from gst, customs duty and arf and now VES. But whether this additional sum covers the “lost of the 5years of coe” only they have the figures to calculate.