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The (trade) war has started

Civic2000

By Civic2000,
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Voodooman

Voodooman

Supersonic
(edited)

No deal one... China would lose face. 中å½ä¸æ¯å大çï¼so they claimed.

 

This is possibly the beginning of the new cold war. Hopefully we will gain from both sides!

...

No deal.

2 negatives.

 

Geopolitically, we might have more breathing space (playing US against China) but as a trade dependent country with a relatively small manufacturing base, don't see how we will benefit economically.

 

Some production may shift from China to ASEAN but Chinese and US manufacturers and producers may export (read: dump) their surplus products into ASEAN and other countries (already happening now), this will intensify competition and lead to more countries putting up import tariff to protect their domestic industries. An abyss?

 

With US at almost full employment, US inflation will accelerate and SG will soon see higher interest rate, possibly above historical averages. More negative than positive given our dependency on the property sector.

 

So how can Cold war 2 be good for Singapore overall?

Edited by Voodooman
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Albeniz

Albeniz

Turbocharged

Can some experts pls share your views on effect of US/China trade war on Singapore's 2 big sectors, namely, electronics and pharmaceutical?

 

Would Sing dollar strengthen or weaken?

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Volvobrick

Volvobrick

Supersonic

Can some experts pls share your views on effect of US/China trade war on Singapore's 2 big sectors, namely, electronics and pharmaceutical?

 

Would Sing dollar strengthen or weaken?

 

I am USD bull... SGD is managed against a basket, to weaken against one but strenthen against the other.  Happened over the last 2 months already.

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Voodooman

Voodooman

Supersonic

he didn't mention that his tax cuts will add 1 trillion dollars to the deficit within his term.

 

Well that's what every republican president always do. While preaching fiscal responsibility, cut the tax mostly benefiting the rich.

 

But the USA is starting all this from a position of strength.

 

The economy is generally strong. They are no longer dependent on oil due to fracking.

Yup, the Democrats spend and spend while the republicans also spend and spend. Noone cares for the reasons behind the deficit (Americans are spenders while the Chinese are savers).

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Evillusion

Evillusion

Supersonic
(edited)

he didn't mention that his tax cuts will add 1 trillion dollars to the deficit within his term.

 

Well that's what every republican president always do. While preaching fiscal responsibility, cut the tax mostly benefiting the rich.

 

But the USA is starting all this from a position of strength.

 

The economy is generally strong. They are no longer dependent on oil due to fracking.

Mahathir oredy make noise when MY owes 1 trillion ringgit.... Edited by Eviilusion
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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)

Mahathir oredy make noise when MY owes 1 trillion ringgit....ð¤£ð¤£ð¤£. SG utang 2.6 trillion sgd we also bo hiu....

haha ... this is the point ahjib kor keep harping in their parliament debate that spore debt level is sibei high compare to gdp ... [laugh]

jibby is smarter than ah loong? lol

Edited by Wt_know
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Evillusion

Evillusion

Supersonic

haha ... this is the point ahjib kor keep harping in their parliament debate that spore debt level is sibei high compare to gdp ... [laugh]

jibby is smarter than ah loong? lol

one of my colleague go suan MY. He say pity MYians....gov utang 1 trillion ringgit. I say knn.........MYians wont die wan....go bankrupt still can go back kampung and plant vege and keep chicken. We Singapore utang US 1.6 trillion how? Go back home scrap paint and boil for makan har?
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Voodooman

Voodooman

Supersonic
(edited)

Can some experts pls share your views on effect of US/China trade war on Singapore's 2 big sectors, namely, electronics and pharmaceutical?

 

Would Sing dollar strengthen or weaken?

I am not an expert but electronics is expected to see major disruption.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-nations-push-back-at-u-s-on-trade-sanctions-1533507560

post-24635-0-86991900-1533563034_thumb.jpeg

Edited by Voodooman
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kennytansk

kennytansk

3rd Gear

haha ... this is the point ahjib kor keep harping in their parliament debate that spore debt level is sibei high compare to gdp ... [laugh]

jibby is smarter than ah loong? lol

 

Yes lah.... Jib kor is smarter than Ah Loong in that he know how and when to scoop loads of cash and jewelries for his own keep... kekeke. [laugh]

 

But he too arrogant and thot sure win at the polls which caused his down fall. [hur]

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Volvobrick

Volvobrick

Supersonic

 

err quite crappy article.  Like shouting very loud before a rugby game.

 

China export is about 20% of GDP, US - 12%.  Currently US has the upper hand, and Europe being white, will (or already starting to) side with US.  Many countries are looking forward for production to move from China to them. US consumers won't care if the iphone or shirt is madde in China or Vietnam.

 

Impose tariffs on US Soya beans?  What happened is Brazil (or other countries) exports more of theirs to China  (at higher prices of course) while importing American soya beans (cheaper now) to meet domestic demands.

 

FTA with UK post Brexit? What's there for UK to export except Financial Services and a few Rolls Royce's?  Of course we know what China can export to UK - everything other than planes!

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Voodooman

Voodooman

Supersonic

err quite crappy article. Like shouting very loud before a rugby game.

 

China export is about 20% of GDP, US - 12%. Currently US has the upper hand, and Europe being white, will (or already starting to) side with US. Many countries are looking forward for production to move from China to them. US consumers won't care if the iphone or shirt is madde in China or Vietnam.

 

Impose tariffs on US Soya beans? What happened is Brazil (or other countries) exports more of theirs to China (at higher prices of course) while importing American soya beans (cheaper now) to meet domestic demands.

 

FTA with UK post Brexit? What's there for UK to export except Financial Services and a few Rolls Royce's? Of course we know what China can export to UK - everything other than planes!

China can fight a prolonged trade war but if production starts to move back to the US or other countries as Trump had intended, China would have lost half the battle.

 

But this war may be good for China in the long term, too yaya papaya in recent years, haven't arrived and already behaving like a big bully, imagine what will happen when they did.

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Volvobrick

Volvobrick

Supersonic

But this war may be good for China in the long term, too yaya papaya in recent years, haven't arrived and already behaving like a big bully, imagine what will happen when they did.

 

There are already people blaming Xi for abandoning Deng's strategy of growing strong quietly and causing current situation.

 

Don't worry - these people will be locked up soon!

 

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