COE bidding - 1st round March 2017

[therock]

+1

Dealers don't care about the COE levels.

But they will care about the quota levels.

More quota, more sales.

 

COE goes up or down, they will sell. But if there's no quota, there's nothing to sell. Only the resale market and the 2nd hand dealers benefit.

Edited March 10, 2017 by therock

[Wolfverine]

Considering 3 weeks break, unlikely COE will drop.

[Pohtk]

 

Another food for thoughts... not sure if everyone agreeds with me...

 

http://www.mycarforum.com/blog/12/entry-4825-coes-extended-for-record-number-of-vehicles/

 

With COE renewal record high for 2016... the trends will continue.

Meaning lesser COE for new cars and COE will increase right? That argument is what SE will tell u...

 

Reasons for renewal is high is only due to one reason, price of new car is high.

Most people who bought cars at that time can't afford or found no good reasons to change.

 

Coming 2017 to 2018.. 30% or more pending fresh COE whose car is reaching 10yrs of age are about to scrap.

What will happen if price of COE remains high:

1. Price of new cars will remain unchanged.

2. No of available COE remains unchanged per month.

3. Sells the same amount of cars per month for dealers.

 

Or COE drops:

1. Price of new car become cheaper.

2. More COE per month.

3. Dealers sells alot more cars per month.

 

I think you guys knows what I'm talking about. At first it seems like we buyers are at an disadvantage, but we got choice here.

For dealers, they are much more in a stuck position, either they try to bid less aggressively now or keep loosing the potential business out there.

No one loose out in cheaper COE, only dealers are mostly affected. They need to sell to feed their families right? For most of they buyers, they got plenty of other options (car rental anyone???).

 

So how high is the chance of COE to remain high? Give in your thoughts guys!

 

There you go, singing the song of COE dropping...  

 

 

 

What i've mention is unprecedented before. No one will able to guess what will happen next.

 

My point is to suggest dealers to bid less aggressively, but things don't always happen this way (ie U/G aggressive biddings). Its just an idealistic thinking. Feel free to shoot

 

Please look at the factors regarding the huge no. of renewals coming in and guess the on coming out look of whether more

people will choose to buy new cars or renew their COEs.

[Pohtk]

COE is a tax and it goes to the govt. Whether COE 10k or 100k, the profit margin for each car sold is roughly the same. Dealers don't really care where the COE is at, neither do they have much incentive to push COE up. Our perception of COE being "pushed up" by dealers is simply dealers bidding aggressively to close more orders and sell more cars, going for slightly lower profit margin but slight more volume.

 

Simple example, Feb 2008 Altis going for 60k, COE was 12k. Hence car cost + dealer profit was around 48k. Fast forward to present day, Altis going for 102k with COE at 50k. Car cost + dealer profit is now about 52k. So COE went up by 4 times, but car price + profit margin only different by 4k?

 

Who is the one playing COE? Recall months back when COE finally starting to head downwards, suddenly loan was relaxed to 7 years and lesser downpayment needed. I don't need to say out who's the one playing with COE prices....

 

When COE is high, premium car dealers sells more...

When COE is low, b&b cars sells more...

 

10yrs ago, when COE is alot, b&b dealers is always the top sellers. Now fast forward... we got majority of b&b gona renew their COE... don't you think b&b dealers doesn't want to sell more cars like last time? Don't we have more b&b brands than premium car dealers?

 

IMO, and I'm not working for the government, I'm just stating base on facts. The relaxing of car loan was due to price of COE is dropping, and the cost of owning a car is not as high as it was in 2012~2013 when the COE almost hit 100k. The restriction is to prevent those who is not finance prudent enough to get a 10yrs loan and end up high in debt.

If there is no restriction, I believe 100k+ COE will definitely happen then.

This is how our government works and always works this way.

 

But personally I feel some of not most of the restriction nowadays came too late where the damage is already done. Just look at the property market now for example, worried for the next generation who is gona own their own housing.

[Pohtk]

+1

Dealers don't care about the COE levels.

But they will care about the quota levels.

More quota, more sales.

 

COE goes up or down, they will sell. But if there's no quota, there's nothing to sell. Only the resale market and the 2nd hand dealers benefit.

 

 

 

Totally agreed on the quota.... On the other hand... they also wish the market to be healthy or else they wun have persuaded LTA to smoothen the COE distribution curves. Am I right?

 

They also wan a steady stream of people buying cars from them... especially the majority of the dealers who is selling b&b car... they can't and should already know they can't afford to play such games with the premium makers. They are businessman too.

 

IF they are smart enough, they will ensure that COE remains low and when the times comes, they will get better share of the market.

[Philipkee]

is there a one page summary of the latest car rules?

 

i havent been tracking, totally lost and need to renew my coe/change car...

Got money - buy

No money - rent / 2nd hand car/ BMW

How much money - about 20-30k Sgd for deposit and downpayment for cheapest bnb car. For bigger models adjust accordingly

 

When to buy - when you are comfortable

Is coe on a downtrend - believed to be so but no one dare confirm so this thread is where we all show our calculations and assumptions but at the end of the day we are guessing only

 

Is there anyone who can CONFIRM future prices of coe - maybe have but we are still waiting for him/her /it to post a thread here

 

Does the latest budget reading affect the buyer now? Not directly for the time being but soon. Indirectly because the latest rules don't affect car purchases NOW but if the rules cause people to bring forward a planned purchase of car then he's it does affect the prices of cars.

 

Hope it helps. :)

[Vinceng]

Considering 3 weeks break, unlikely COE will drop.

In all honesty, COE can drop to $40K at the next bidding.

 

It's all in the hands of the Authorised Distributors. They control the COE price, and the relevant authorities allow them to do so with open arms.

[Kia7200]

In all honesty, COE can drop to $40K at the next bidding.

 

It's all in the hands of the Authorised Distributors. They control the COE price, and the relevant authorities allow them to do so with open arms.

Wow first time hear u say drop, next bidding sure drop

[therock]

Totally agreed on the quota.... On the other hand... they also wish the market to be healthy or else they wun have persuaded LTA to smoothen the COE distribution curves. Am I right?

 

They also wan a steady stream of people buying cars from them... especially the majority of the dealers who is selling b&b car... they can't and should already know they can't afford to play such games with the premium makers. They are businessman too.

 

IF they are smart enough, they will ensure that COE remains low and when the times comes, they will get better share of the market.

Depends bro

For example, the car you are looking at, becomes more attractive when the COE is high.

Dealers sell more of what you call B&B cars when the COE is low, and more premium marques when the COE is high.

 

Nevertheless, all dealers will be happier when there are higher quotas, since they can find something to sell. When COE is very high and the quota is low, only the big marques or those willing to sacrifice margins will sell something.

[Pohtk]

Depends bro

For example, the car you are looking at, becomes more attractive when the COE is high.

Dealers sell more of what you call B&B cars when the COE is low, and more premium marques when the COE is high.

 

Nevertheless, all dealers will be happier when there are higher quotas, since they can find something to sell. When COE is very high and the quota is low, only the big marques or those willing to sacrifice margins will sell something.

 

Yup sadly the one im looking at is rather expensive as of now.

 

Yes, so being said, what do you think regarding the current out look?

As you did mentioned when COE is high and quota is low, the premium dealers can sell....  how about now? With more possible COE quota coming in, more marginal buyers than before, how will the dealers react? Will they still bid high to carry on pushing G COE or more willingly to bid less aggressively?

 

I think this will be more interesting to share .. haha  

[therock]

Yup sadly the one im looking at is rather expensive as of now.

 

Yes, so being said, what do you think regarding the current out look?

As you did mentioned when COE is high and quota is low, the premium dealers can sell....  how about now? With more possible COE quota coming in, more marginal buyers than before, how will the dealers react? Will they still bid high to carry on pushing G COE or more willingly to bid less aggressively?

 

I think this will be more interesting to share .. haha  

 

Premium marques will simply bid whatever it takes to get the car. They have the resources, margin and clout to do so.

They will rely on the more bread and butter marques to bring the COE levels down. 

[Skymax]

Looking at the calender, now till June all biddings will be 2weeks apart each, now this round shifted one week, next bid and the next is too close together!?

[Club21z]

Haha seems like MCF have a thing for marginal owners. Then perhaps should implement full cash payment for COE. Surely can eliminate some of them.

[Karoon]

Got money - buy

No money - rent / 2nd hand car/ BMW

How much money - about 20-30k Sgd for deposit and downpayment for cheapest bnb car. For bigger models adjust accordingly

 

When to buy - when you are comfortable

Is coe on a downtrend - believed to be so but no one dare confirm so this thread is where we all show our calculations and assumptions but at the end of the day we are guessing only

 

Is there anyone who can CONFIRM future prices of coe - maybe have but we are still waiting for him/her /it to post a thread here

 

Does the latest budget reading affect the buyer now? Not directly for the time being but soon. Indirectly because the latest rules don't affect car purchases NOW but if the rules cause people to bring forward a planned purchase of car then he's it does affect the prices of cars.

 

Hope it helps. :)

 

 

only missing the part on models to avoid to reduce future expenditure

[flashbang]

Looking at the calender, now till June all biddings will be 2weeks apart each, now this round shifted one week, next bid and the next is too close together!?

Where to find the new bidding calendar?

[Skymax]

Have to calculate on your own, 1st week and third week of each month unless MOT chut pattern like recently then disrupt the cycle. This March bid next week, next and next I wonder when? I am timing my entry as mine due Nov 17.

 

From one motoring

Mark the calendar: there are 2 COE Open Bidding exercises in a month. The bidding exercises usually start on the first Monday and third Monday of the month at 12pm and lasts for 3 working days. The exercises will usually end on the Wednesday in the same week at 4pm.

Edited March 11, 2017 by Skymax

[leehock13828]

In all honesty, COE can drop to $40K at the next bidding.

 

It's all in the hands of the Authorised Distributors. They control the COE price, and the relevant authorities allow them to do so with open arms.

How can they control the prices when its buyers themselves that wanna buy a car with dealers factoring in a 50k coein their pricing?

 

Its the buyers that push up the prices ,not the sellers

[Savvy777]

Exactly, it all boils down to supply and demand. If the demand is more than supply COE will sustain at a certain level. That level is influenced by the prices that buyers signed on the dotted line where the COE price already factored in, especially for gtd COE. If demand were to soften but still more than supply, you may see a larger dip of 6K to 8K, but rest assured it would drive back demand and lift up COE in the following bid... and the cycle repeat itself.