COE bidding - 1st round of Feb 2017

[Jthl]

Donald Trump effect.

 

Maintain or up a bit...hehehe

[Mouse]

Got the info for point from from respective distributors' SE.

 

Just to rattle off some numbers, 1,000 Attrages, 500 Lancers and 500 K3s were sold recently (car only, without COE)

A cabby uncle told me last week that alot of uber cars not taken up n is parked in carpark collecting dust...knn cabby uncle anyhow throw smoke bomb huh? Huat liao loh..,coe pricing goes up..2nd hand cars pricing also cheong all the way up. Edited February 3, 2017 by Mouse

[Nzy]

A cabby uncle told me last week that alot of uber cars not taken up n is parked in carpark collecting dust...knn cabby uncle anyhow throw smoke bomb huh? Huat liao loh..,coe pricing goes up..2nd hand cars pricing also cheong all the way up.

 

Uber now collecting cars first. When COE really shoots up, they will be able to rent out these cars already lo. Or might be they purposely make COE high so people that cannot afford the downpayment will rent. Higher the COE, the more business they get. If COE crashes, even lesser people will want to rent from them. So they will like COE to remain high.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Nzy

[Mouse]

Uber now collecting cars first. When COE really shoots up, they will be able to rent out these cars already lo. Or might be they purposely make COE high so people that cannot afford the downpayment will rent. Higher the COE, the more business they get. If COE crashes, even lesser people will want to rent from them. So they will like COE to remain high.

My apologies for side tracking abit. For those that rent uber cars, under the new ruling this yr, they hv to attend class, go for medical checkup n display uber decals on their rides right? This applies to all uber cars even if one intend to rent it for personal usage, is that right?

[Victor68]

Uber now collecting cars first. When COE really shoots up, they will be able to rent out these cars already lo. Or might be they purposely make COE high so people that cannot afford the downpayment will rent. Higher the COE, the more business they get. If COE crashes, even lesser people will want to rent from them. So they will like COE to remain high.

 

Very clever of Uber, maybe keep and continue to bid high then sell later to make money

 

[Vinceng]

Uber now collecting cars first. When COE really shoots up, they will be able to rent out these cars already lo. Or might be they purposely make COE high so people that cannot afford the downpayment will rent. Higher the COE, the more business they get. If COE crashes, even lesser people will want to rent from them. So they will like COE to remain high.

 

The past trends in COE bidding is:

 

1) If car distributors bid to above $50K, Uber/Grab will stay at the sidelines and not bid

 

2) If bidding price stays below $50K at the last 15 mins (3.45pm to 3:59pm), Grab/Uber will jump in to place bids, usually 200 bids at one go and push prices to >$50K.

 

Either way, car buyers are damned.

Edited February 3, 2017 by Vinceng

[Happyrider]

Post cny coe prices is the best time for the whole year to find a new support coe level. AD knows this, and will bid accordingly. They need to have enough sales numbers to meet respective principals quota for the year. With economic fundamentals still looking bleak for 2017, and private buyers for $50k coe drying up, the new support coe level along with lower car prices will stimulate the sub $40k coe buyers to enter the market to make up the numbers.

 

Btw Uber has bidded aggressively for the past year to replace old cars and grow their fleet. The growth rate is simply unsustainable. With Uber also lowering their ride fares, former taxi drivers who have jumped ship to Uber/grab has started to go back to driving taxis, citing insufficient earnings. Doesnt make sense for Uber/grab to continue their aggressive bidding for 2017.

[13177]

Let not forget that many PI has hold back bidding waiting for the day plus PH has no sign of holding back.2016 and 2017 has higher number of deregistration meaning more new ride renewal.The situation is similar to 3rd quarter 2016. It should be a down but many surprises awaiting too. A few round 47k to 50k range is not impossible before COE draught kicks in. Next few months towards the end of the years should be critical time to monitor for those that are renewing their ride..I believe that there are those ride that expiring in 2 ~ 3 years time might renew their car or COE before expiring.

This year think we should be able to see 40k plus range for coe, could be due to no good economy. But which month it will happen then difficult to say. Lol.

[Ct3833]

Got the info for point from from respective distributors' SE.

 

Just to rattle off some numbers, 1,000 Attrages, 500 Lancers and 500 K3s were sold recently (car only, without COE)

I have no doubt about what you said but I am doubting those who told you the figures. I have also seen 1,000 Attrage booking being mentioned a couple of times  last year, but  end up Mitsubishi sold only 1,700+ Attrage throughout 2016 including private owners plus LCR. so I am wondering if some of those figure quoted have double counting effect.  

Edited February 3, 2017 by Ct3833

[Vratenza]

You go read the  financials for Uber:

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/uber-s-loss-exceeds-800-million-in-third-quarter-on-1-7-billion-in-net-revenue

 

Does it make sense they had been throwing money to build their fleet for the last 1 year? 

 

Keywords: market share, monopoly

 

 

Post cny coe prices is the best time for the whole year to find a new support coe level. AD knows this, and will bid accordingly. They need to have enough sales numbers to meet respective principals quota for the year. With economic fundamentals still looking bleak for 2017, and private buyers for $50k coe drying up, the new support coe level along with lower car prices will stimulate the sub $40k coe buyers to enter the market to make up the numbers.

Btw Uber has bidded aggressively for the past year to replace old cars and grow their fleet. The growth rate is simply unsustainable. With Uber also lowering their ride fares, former taxi drivers who have jumped ship to Uber/grab has started to go back to driving taxis, citing insufficient earnings. Doesnt make sense for Uber/grab to continue their aggressive bidding for 2017.

 

[Arch1984]

Yeah really throwing money and never going to get monopoly in Singapore with Grab also challenging and also throwing money. They typically go the incentive to driver + incentive to customers route in other countries but in Singapore they decide to throw money into car rental business as well. Depreciating asset heavy balance sheet are not nice on tech companies for eventual IPOs. Should be interesting when they decide not to throw money in Singapore (given our small market) like in China.

[Battledome64]

If every country implement COE, Uber will be a monster like Cookie Monster on sesame street

[Renegade777]

Sir Isaac Newton - What goes up must come down.

 

Nothing stays forever. Nothing holds on forever. Nothing is infinity and only GOD is.   

Edited February 4, 2017 by Renegade777

[Vratenza]

Sir, I have to disagree. Ministers' salary seem to always go up but never go down for a long long time now......

 

 

Sir Isaac Newton - What goes up must come down.

 

Nothing stays forever. Nothing holds on forever. Nothing is infinity and only GOD is.   

 

[Darius]

No statistics required. It be sub 50k a couple of time and gradually up towards end of 2017 when quota getting lesser. With so many deregistration. There are as many buyers plus PH , new drivers. There is no proof that 2018 quota is higher. If my car were to due next 2 years I might renew this year, this is last chance for cheaper COE till 10 years later

Edited February 4, 2017 by Darius

[Arch1984]

Sir, I have to disagree. Ministers' salary seem to always go up but never go down for a long long time now......

 

Got down before a couple of years back. But still sky high.

[Arch1984]

No statistics required. It be sub 50k a couple of time and gradually up towards end of 2017 when quota getting lesser. With so many deregistration. There are as many buyers plus PH , new drivers. There is no proof that 2018 quota is higher. If my car were to due next 2 years I might renew this year, this is last chance for cheaper COE till 10 years later

 

When deregistration is higher means there will be more ppl giving up driving (no longer need to, too old, cannot afford) assuming % of such ppl is consistent to cater for new drivers, PH, etc. During downturn the percentage will be higher due to the increase in cannot afford ppl plus lesser potential new drivers. So COE may still be lower even if quota is lower. Quota for 2018 and 2019 based on current existing vehicles bought in 2008 and 2009 will be lower. Whether will 2018 and 2019 be higher than 2016 or 2017 will depend on how the economy goes or what "interesting" measures the government comes up with.

[Titanium]

2) If bidding price stays below $50K at the last 15 mins (3.45pm to 3:59pm), Grab/Uber will jump in to place bids, usually 200 bids at one go and push prices to >$50K.

 

Either way, car buyers are damned.

 

Ask a noob question.

 

What if 200 individual (eg. you and me) place bids at $1 at the last 15mins too?