2016 May, 1st COE Bidding Exercise

[Carbon82]

thanks for your views, makes sense

just curious, does anyone know / can gues / estimate how many "lease cars"

 / rental cars running in SG roads

 

cheers

I am guessing easily 15 - 20%, if not more. Now that most ADs are also offering leasing scheme, the no. will be higher for sure.

But if there are more uber and grab which are part of public transportation, wouldnt the need for car similarly decreases?

 

Since more cars are on the road at any given time(because of car sharing, renting and uber), if the quota remain unchanged, wouldn't our road become more jam?

 

When our road become more jam pack, erp will rise, and worse still, government might claw back or restrict growth on car population.

Well, what is new? I already stressed that the vehicle growth will be in -ve in time to come, and running cost will inch up further when GPS based system is ready by 2020.

But for the 40% and 50% downpayment rules doesn't really matters what, don't tell me no one knows most PI offering new car with in house loan where u can just dp 10%.

But not all go for PI mah. AD are generally following strictly to the dp requirement, thus they have to work around with leasing scheme.

[Char]

Leading car is under company right ? Can sell to private later meh ?

[Char]

Can say that now every bidding got hidden bidders like AD and PI for leasing , private hires like Ubor , SMRT , Grab and others ... Plus all the private buyers ...

[derron0102]

But for the 40% and 50% downpayment rules doesn't really matters what, don't tell me no one knows most PI offering new car with in house loan where u can just dp 10%.

car dealers who offer 10% dp in house loan are some of the biggest shark. The moment you mention you want to go for this kind of scheme, the advertised price automatically increase by $5000 minimum coz they know how desperate the buyer are. The buyer simply land themselves in a vicious cycle, forever paying more than the rest.

 

Reminds me of Courts in house installment plan. Loan 60mths, end up paying more than 2x the original selling price. The best part? 60mths fully paid, go and take another 48mths in house loan. There are many such cases. Some are worst, loan haven't fin take another loan, and some heartless sales staff simply put 2 loans together, interest upon interest.

[Blackyv]

To me, it is not just about bid price or how high the COE premium will become. It is more about a potential market shift. High COE/car price and the 50% downpayment rule are starting to "force" those that need a car but cannot fulfill the requirement to turn to car leasing, car rental or car sharing and Uber/Grab, which these are run by business operators with stronger financial backing. They will become the driving force in times to come, providing support for high COE premium. And the worst would be users getting use to it, and only the richer indivdual buyer can continue to afford a personal transport.

 

My thought is not a far stretch if you look at what happened during SARS period in 2003. Remember the massive quarantine at Pasir Panjang wholesale centre, that eventually force some stalls to close, lesser people get their fresh vegie supply from wet market, but turn to hypermart such as NTUC, Giant, Prime, etc. Even after the SARS are gone, there are noticeably lesser patron to the wet market (although the price maybe cheaper, more variety, etc.). And now, how many has have hear your mum / wife / neighbour complaining that the price at wet market is no longer comprtitive or cheaper than hypermart?

 

My point is: Uber / Grab may be just bidding for 2% of the total COE allocation, but as long as there are demand (high likely), the number will grow, and if you add in all bids from other business owner (be it car leasing, rental firm, car sharing, etc.), I can assure you, it will be much more than just a tiny 2%.

What you said make sense but how high can the % go up? I'm in manufacturing industry and I don't see how those working in my industry can drive ubor part-time when they have to work 8:30-5:30pm. Unless they drive after work daily to cover the rental.... How many can live a life like that daily?... Over time, I'm sure certain % will give up...

 

Good for those insurance agent, or car sales man and those fkexibke working time industry... But how many of them drive ubor?.

 

Just like I heard from a taxi driver friend.. got 1 chap, taxi driver more than 10yrs, then jump to ubor, and just 3 mths, back to taxi driver because ubor bohhua and tough since cannot pick up passenger and have to 'fight' for customer..old uncle finger not fast enough....Hehehe ...

[Check13]

after 4-5 rounds of consecutive up, I feel the next bid in May should be down.

I think a lot of buyers already got their Coe.

[Char]

after 4-5 rounds of consecutive up, I feel the next bid in May should be down.

I think a lot of buyers already got their Coe.

Always got new buyers and worst still those force to enter earlier than plan due to Ubor effect .

[bronzy]

after 4-5 rounds of consecutive up, I feel the next bid in May should be down.

I think a lot of buyers already got their Coe.

After 2nd bidding there will be a 3 week interval iirc, let's see. :)

[kmttan]

Always got new buyers and worst still those force to enter earlier than plan due to Ubor effect .

 

Agreed. Some people have no choice but to enter the market because their cars are expiring. The sideline people will likely hold their horses because the COE is pretty high now. The worrying part is that Uber may come in bulk again. Let's hope that Uber have realized their mistakes, and will spread out their requirement over a longer period in order to have negligible effect on COE. 

[Antant77]

after 4-5 rounds of consecutive up, I feel the next bid in May should be down.

I think a lot of buyers already got their Coe.

I hope u r right and I am wrong. There are still many folks wish to buy cars. Due to these big players, COE might still continue to go higher. Unless, due to some reason, big players miss a turn. Who knows, maybe u still have chance to get rebate from your SE le.

[Passion]

Agreed. Some people have no choice but to enter the market because their cars are expiring. The sideline people will likely hold their horses because the COE is pretty high now. The worrying part is that Uber may come in bulk again. Let's hope that Uber have realized their mistakes, and will spread out their requirement over a longer period in order to have negligible effect on COE. 

Uber realised their mistake? You wait long long. This is a who got money who win country. If you cannot afford, they will ask you go take public. Be a vegetarian.

[Friendstar]

The news on Uber work.

 

I really have many colleagues buying because of the news.

[bronzy]

Agreed. Some people have no choice but to enter the market because their cars are expiring. The sideline people will likely hold their horses because the COE is pretty high now. The worrying part is that Uber may come in bulk again. Let's hope that Uber have realized their mistakes, and will spread out their requirement over a longer period in order to have negligible effect on COE. 

 

Honestly I don't think Uber is bothered by a drop of a few thousands. If I were Uber, I would want COE to stay or go higher, so more will rent from me.   If drop too much, then my pool of potential drivers will decrease as these drivers would have their own cars. 

[Check13]

Always got new buyers and worst still those force to enter earlier than plan due to Ubor effect .

yes I agree. I just feel maybe after consecutive few rounds it will pause a bit.

I hope u r right and I am wrong. There are still many folks wish to buy cars. Due to these big players, COE might still continue to go higher. Unless, due to some reason, big players miss a turn. Who knows, maybe u still have chance to get rebate from your SE le. ð

yes I agree. I just feel maybe after consecutive few rounds it will pause a bit.

[BenTong]

yes I agree. I just feel maybe after consecutive few rounds it will pause a bit.

yes I agree. I just feel maybe after consecutive few rounds it will pause a bit.

Pause does not mean it will drop significantly. More than 50% chance cat B will hover above $50k till end of 2016

[bronzy]

Pause does not mean it will drop significantly. More than 50% chance cat B will hover above $50k till end of 2016

 

http://www.sgcarmart.com/new_cars/pricelist/44/2016-05-10.pdf

 

Yesterday's updated Toyota price list, it seems they have revised Cat B's COE rebate levels after the last bidding along with increaseing the price by $1k

.

1) Non-guaranteed to by 1k to 42k

2) Guaranteed by 3k to 47k

 

Cat A remains unchanged at 40k and 44k respectively.

 

Any views on this?

[Char]

The news on Uber work.

 

I really have many colleagues buying because of the news.

I think panic buttock already activated by this Ubor , just you alone already got so many friend bring forward and I believe many out there will do the same . This Ubor really harm the COE system ... They will keep buying before LDA implement any new rules .

[bronzy]

The news on Uber work.

 

I really have many colleagues buying because of the news.

 

Many = how many? I have 3 colleagues who made their booking after news release. Their old rides are expiring in 16/17.