2015 Oct, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[yo2020]

 

more greens??

[Googoo]

yes i think so.. my bet is this bidding we will see the lowest coe price for this year...haha 

[Ben5266]

No panic. No panic....

 

Look at the COE 10 years ago.

 

Apr to Sep. The total quota available was about the same.

Therefore, there is a slight drop on the quota available for next Q. As the revalidate increase. 

 

Next 6 months will be better. Hopefully.

Then the COE quota reduced in Apr-Jun 2006.

 

So, best time to buy in 2016 is Jun when less people have to scrap their cars but the supply is more.

 

of course, there are many forces that might change this.

 

Like, there is a freak "accident" where COE premium drop to $10k-20k for 1 round. PQP will reduce and many race in to revalidate their COE before due. 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2015 by Ben5266

[WoeiSongKeh]

I take is Cat B will remain and Cat A will +- 1K

 

Good luck to all those who are bidding to get car.

[MQX87511]

  On 10/16/2015 at 2:24 AM, yo2020 said:

 

more greens??

all red   

[Hshs]

Many renew their COE. That cause supply reduce of next quarter.

Panic buyers plus year end may push up the COE.

 

Cat A - $58,888

Cat B - $62,888

[Fruit-tart]

I think will continue to see more greens this round too.. last bidding like alot of people get their coe at first bid..so backlogs somhw cleared alr..

 

Greens greens greens ~~ i think will down 3 to 5k for cat A , B n E...:) be patient, wait for coe tk have bigger drop(those who can afford to wait).. I m waiting, n will wait... hehe..

Edited October 16, 2015 by Fruit-tart

[Kar_lover]

Nov to Jan quota slightly cut - may spur dealers to bid a bit more aggressively this round knowing there will be less next round.

[dragonforce]

My take is that the COE prices across all categories will go up +/- $1k to 2k

 

Afterall, the COE supply for the next quarter is flat.... and in reality has a lower number of quotas up for grabs, albeit not much.  

 

This will make the dealers and buyers who have been waiting by the sidelines to scramble anxiously to bid aggressively especially for those customers who have booked with guaranteed COE packages and the AD/PI not submitted a bid yet.

 

Together with more buyers coming in for the festive period, the COE price trend will spike up again, by how much, that is the big $$$ question mark.

[Lincoln]

This and the next quarter 6 bids is when COE might trends upwards due to CNY buying and flat COE quotas. If the price is stagnant or even drop slightly, it will be a strong signal for much weaker COE prices going forward.

 

For bargain buyers, stay out of this quarter. No harm waiting if you had already waited without a car.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Lincoln

[Spurman]

55k and 56k for a and b respectively i bet

[Limwsv]

  On 10/16/2015 at 3:08 AM, Ben5266 said:

No panic. No panic....

 

coe2005q2-3.JPG

Look at the COE 10 years ago.

 

Apr to Sep. The total quota available was about the same.

Therefore, there is a slight drop on the quota available for next Q. As the revalidate increase. 

 

Next 6 months will be better. Hopefully.

coe2005q4.JPG

coe2006q1-2.JPG

Then the COE quota reduced in Apr-Jun 2006.

 

So, best time to buy in 2016 is Jun when less people have to scrap their cars but the supply is more.

 

of course, there are many forces that might change this.

 

Like, there is a freak "accident" where COE premium drop to $10k-20k for 1 round. PQP will reduce and many race in to revalidate their COE before due. 

 

Wow.. must praise you for these numbers... like gold nuggets.

 

With your number, we can estimate the survival rate of cars as they age.  From looks of it, ~4400 - ~3300 = 1100+ cars are scrapped early before reaching 10 year old.  That's a suvival rate of 75%..

[Hshs]

  On 10/16/2015 at 8:18 AM, Limwsv said:

Wow.. must praise you for these numbers... like gold nuggets.

 

With your number, we can estimate the survival rate of cars as they age. From looks of it, ~4400 - ~3300 = 1100+ cars are scrapped early before reaching 10 year old. That's a suvival rate of 75%..

Ya, look good on paper. Number of scrap is more than number of bid right now.

[kmttan]

The graph shows the relationship between quota and premium for Cat A from 2013 to 2015. From the regression line, we can (actually cannot but never mind lah) extrapolate the required number of COE in order for premium to drop to $40K. To reach $40K, we may need 3000 COE per bidding. 

 

 

[Wanaka]

Go up by 1-2k per cat.  

[Imac]

All will go up...

 

There some bro saying in another thread that VW Roadshow at Jurong and Vivio having good crowd. 

 

I guess it is due to gov announce positive growth and we are not in recession.

 

Also, there is a strong and aggressive take up rate by UBER for 9 yr old car...it is reported that the trade-in offer is too good to be miss...good news for those having old car and planning to get a new one...

[Blueray]

A : +1.5k

B : +1.0k

[Kflai26]

My guess Coe should go up as Nov to Jan coe stay flat while this is the time ppl will buy before Xmas & CNY.