2015 Aug, 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[7hm]

Did he set 58K at the start or chase the price up?

 

Last transaction type is "Submission" rather than "Revision", so I would assume 58,000 is his initial.

[Limwsv]

 

 

I'm one of those who bashed these posts but I stand by what I did.

 

There is nothing wrong with hoping COE will go to $1. (I also hope the same). This may come one day but almost certainly not in the last bidding exercise.

 

What is at issue here is actually putting a post here to bid COE at $1 during for Aug '15 2nd bidding and then following it up with numerous posts to fan excitement around it. This is not hope. It is recklessness and wastefulness. Worst is if it influences others to do the same thing.

 

In this case, I would suggest that people get more value of their money and buy toto.

 

Any possibility that I can get a good citizen award for this you guys think?

 

Sigh.... looks like I am going to make another enney again

 

Whether girlzgirlz troll or not I don't know. But self-bidding has always been possible. And if observed carefully, every auction always have about 100+ ~ 150+ of them. The ones that made bids way before 12 pm Wednesday.

 

As many have said, who knows when the black swan event will happen. Note the when, not if.

 

If you are willing to accept that < $1000 is black swan, here's a list of when it has happened before. Data from here. http://tralvex.com/pub/cars/coe.htm

 

2009

Feb.T1 Cat A 1,020, Cat B 689

Jan.T2 Cat B 200

 

2008

Nov.T2 Cat A 2

 

2001

Jun Cat A 101

 

1998

Jan Cat 3 (aka Cat E) 50

 

As some other brothers have said, economic crisis always bring out the swans. However, notice that only people who bought into the auction before the event benefits. Dealers don't slash prices due to black swans, so subsequent buyers never gain.

 

And if you are monitoring the markets, the real bears (not COE bears, but economist bears) are warning that 2015 - 2016 may be very rough years for global economy.

 

If you read Piketty last few chapters in "Capital in the Twenty-first Century", there are some reasons why some of these Nobel winning economists are worried.

 

To be fair, there are others Nobel winning economists who says that our global economies are restructuring and there are more gains so we won't fall into the trap.

[Latio2005A]

 

Did he set 58K at the start or chase the price up?

 

 

Last transaction type is "Submission" rather than "Revision", so I would assume 58,000 is his initial.

I think so, it was the PI who bidder for him. One bid and kill.

[Forte3737]

 

Jin Boh? I can analyse horse racing also, but the better pocket must be very deep.

Must buy race bets from all over the world. Probability statistics is alway in the favour of the house. To beat the house, you need short quick runs where the odds are even or in your favour. Then must quickly fold. And move to other courses.

 

Same way the markets are played with quantitative trading.

If you so accurate in horse racing, you will not be waiting for coe to drop

[kmttan]

Bought recently may not be rich

 

Waiting for prices to drop may not be poor

 

Numbers and hard data cannot explain and predict accurately. They can only be used as a general guide

 

If forecasting can be very accurate, I would employ you for 20k per month to analyse horse racing matches instead

 

😂

 

Is all in the assumptions. If the assumption are reasonable, just need to take note of the lower and upper bound. If the assumption is garbage, then garbage out. These analysis assume stationary environment and try to project into the new era, quite eerie. Nevertheless, quoting George Box: "all models are wrong, but some are useful". If the analysis predict that the COE will go down with 51% probability, and there is a need to jump in, just be mentally prepared for the 51% chance, instead of getting a rude shock if it actually happen.

[Limwsv]

 

Is all in the assumptions. If the assumption are reasonable, just need to take note of the lower and upper bound. If the assumption is garbage, then garbage out. These analysis assume stationary environment and try to project into the new era, quite eerie. Nevertheless, quoting George Box: "all models are wrong, but some are useful". If the analysis predict that the COE will go down with 51% probability, and there is a need to jump in, just be mentally prepared for the 51% chance, instead of getting a rude shock if it actually happen.

 

Sorry, cannot give you any praise yet. You have hit the nail on the use of the analysis.

 

The whole purpose is to share the modeling technique and finesse it even better.

 

Actually Enye and Edwin has given me some ideas to improve the model even better as they raise valid objections to part of the analysis. The ideas will address the crude modeling of the behavior of the 0th - 79th decile cohorts.

 

Of course, the best is that if we have a statistician to model it, but my maths in that area is pretty weak, so I still don't know how to properly create a statistical model with the data.

[edwin15]

 

Sigh.... looks like I am going to make another enney again

 

Whether girlzgirlz troll or not I don't know. But self-bidding has always been possible. And if observed carefully, every auction always have about 100+ ~ 150+ of them. The ones that made bids way before 12 pm Wednesday.

 

As many have said, who knows when the black swan event will happen. Note the when, not if.

 

If you are willing to accept that < $1000 is black swan, here's a list of when it has happened before. Data from here. http://tralvex.com/pub/cars/coe.htm

 

 

Aiyah my friend. This is a forum where all are are free to post their views or opinions. (The flip side is also that everyone is also free to remark on your posts)

 

Why would I be offended if you reply to my posts with sound arguments against and even provide data to back it up. Your data on COE black swan is a real eye-opener. I did not know this. However I consider only 2001 and 1998 to be the black swans as for the other 2, the prices are within ~10k to 15k which I think is fair range for a COE band. (Opinion here)

 

But going back to what I said in previous post. Note I never say its impossible but rather that I think chances are better if you buy toto.

 

I can work out the toto odds but have no way to work out the chances of coe at $1 when its pricing around the 50-60k band. Will be interesting if you have any idea how to even start deriving this.

[Tohto]

 

 

Was thinking how accurate are the AD. Will the AD of those made in Thailand or Indonesia cars really declare that their cost is that low???

OMV of those made in Thailand Toyota always so high. Where got low?

[Simpleonly]

MCF got a lot of hidden dragon.....

[Ivan_06]

OMV of those made in Thailand Toyota always so high. Where got low?

The salary of Thai workers command a premium compared to the Japanese and Korean counterparts.

[Nissan833]

Haiz, buying a car become so stressful. Prior to buying, u must monitor the coe prices. Upon buying u hope coe goes high up or below the rebate level. After buying, u worry coe prices crashes.

 

I think this is not healthy. Buying a new car shld be exciting like looking forward to having a baby. But I suppose this will happen only to buyers who are more careful in their financials....

 

Buying cars has always been very exciting for me, dunno here why so stressful one. Will research on colour choices, specs, compare with other brands offerings.. test drive, wah so shiok, the drive, the leather etc etc. Go back think 1 day or two, appear again with cheque book, bomb put downpayment!! Wait for car delivery.

 

Been like this for my past 3 cars all new within the last 5 years. I like driving new car feel

 

Buy used car the excitement I can imagine sian 1/2.

[flashbang]

 

Buying cars has always been very exciting for me, dunno here why so stressful one. Will research on colour choices, specs, compare with other brands offerings.. test drive, wah so shiok, the drive, the leather etc etc. Go back think 1 day or two, appear again with cheque book, bomb put downpayment!! Wait for car delivery.

 

Been like this for my past 3 cars all new within the last 5 years. I like driving new car feel

 

Buy used car the excitement I can imagine sian 1/2.

 

Haha the issue comes when it's above your budget...

[twizter]

OMV of those made in Thailand Toyota always so high. Where got low?

 

Tot this is because of the exchange rate? Made in Thailand cars prices in USD, made in Jap cars prices in Yen, which has been falling steadily against the USD.

[Forte3737]

 

Haha the issue comes when it's above your budget...

Then such people will churn out stats to advise us.fear not

[Blackyv]

 

Tot this is because of the exchange rate? Made in Thailand cars prices in USD, made in Jap cars prices in Yen, which has been falling steadily against the USD.

Irregardless, I'm not going to pay more for a make in Thailand toothbrush against a make in japan toothbrush.. I expect saving.

[Nissan833]

 

Haha the issue comes when it's above your budget...

 

1. Adjust budget.. it's flexible

2. Earn more money

 

Everyone want to have pte transport. Everyone wants to drive new car. Everyone wants at least a Japanese car. Everyone wants a German car. Everyone wants a sports car. Everyone wants a super car. Never ending.. important thing to know is where you stand, comfortably in terms of financials.

 

Some people earn 3k, wanna drive a new japanese car. How to?

Some people earn 5k, wanna drive a big german car. How to?

Some people earn 20-30k, can make do with average B&B car.

[Andyngps]

 

Buying cars has always been very exciting for me, dunno here why so stressful one. Will research on colour choices, specs, compare with other brands offerings.. test drive, wah so shiok, the drive, the leather etc etc. Go back think 1 day or two, appear again with cheque book, bomb put downpayment!! Wait for car delivery.

 

Been like this for my past 3 cars all new within the last 5 years. I like driving new car feel

 

Buy used car the excitement I can imagine sian 1/2.

Sorry. Buy used car no excitement. Only anticipation of when is it breaking down. No offence but I had owned used before too.

[Tohto]

Irregardless, I'm not going to pay more for a make in Thailand toothbrush against a make in japan toothbrush.. I expect saving.

That is the point..

I will get a Vezel over a HRV anytime. Better engine, better equipment, better spec, better built quality, and at a much lower price. The built quality is very obvious, I sit in both and the Vezel look much better in term of interior quality..