2015 Aug, 1st COE Bidding Exercise

[ODCmaniac]

Does it matters? People still buying.

[Enye]

Not trying to whack bm, their altis still doesn't come with traction control in 21st century is to much...

Normal driving no need traction control

 

I have never seen that light flash before when driving

 

I don't even know under what conditions will it activate

 

😂

[Sadistmeal]

 

 

The honda folks at Alexandra were no better.

 

Are the Honda folks at Ubi better? Went to the Alexandra one and the SE like one damn sian face and attitude...

[Cboonh]

 

Are the Honda folks at Ubi better? Went to the Alexandra one and the SE like one damn sian face and attitude...

 

lol! exactly how i felt at Alex.

 

Not sure about Ubi tho... went pass Ubi last saturday at about 2-ish. Seems very packed!

[Ken138]

Increase car price despite Coe drop might be marketing tactics... Will have to drop back when people not biting.... Dun feel pressured or rushed into a decision ...

[Jaskin]

I think the GPS ERP will co-exist with COE... Why earn less can you can earn from 2 sources. You risk pissing all the guys who've bought cars over the past 10 years also. May be they might throw us a fricking bone by making GPS ERP cheaper for a first few months or years, after that I won't be surprised if we get speeding tickets using that tech as well.

[Limwsv]

Why is everyone so surprised? This pattern has been seen before in the years of expanding supply of COE between 2003 - 2009. That time too, supplier's resist dropping prices drastically and play fishing.

 

I still remember in the pre-cursor forums to MCF, people kpkb why COE prices not dropping fast since supply growing.

 

In took one full year for COE to drop 10K from 2005 to 2004. But, remember the base is lower starting from 20K and back then, loans are 100% loans for ten year. So everytime supplier drop 1 - 2K, people come back in.

 

Now, our base is 50K and loans are 50% for 5 years, can they still play this game and slow the drop? My take is that unlikely. We should see drop of 5K - 10K, then plateau and drop again until mass market prices are reached.

 

See the charts yourself.

Edited August 3, 2015 by Limwsv

[Jaskin]

haha cause everyone gian see COE drop 17K gian want to buy car now!

 

[Andyngps]

Cut and paste from repository. No need to think liow to respond!

Supply Intervention aka Operation Cold Storage

Some in these forum and of course MTA1 and MTA2 is hoping that the government will announce that in the coming months, as the supply of scrapped COE get larger, a percentage of the scrapped COE will be keep for the next COE low period of 2019 - 2022. The business reasons for that is compelling.

My stance is that the government will be switching over to GPS base pricing system. Simply because

1. LTA publicly avowed aim is to manage congestion, not cars

2. MTA1 and MTA2 wants their business to be able to grow and COE supply cap means a cap to the total market size which will forever be limited to the 600K COE permitted by our road infrastructure.

3. Good politics as everyone can buy cars so that they can checkoff one of the 5Cs, just not be able to use them as and when they like.

4. More equitable distribution of cost. Those who use more of the precious resource time of high demand stretches of roads will pay more for the resource time instead of transferring the cost to those who avoid those stretches.

5. Good revenue since it is consumption based. Also, in financial management, predictable revenue stream is better than a bigger than unpredictable cashflow. The nature of COE means that the revenue is never predictable and subjected to external shock from the economy and other factors.

COE as a control mechanism for congestion will go away. It will still remain as a revenue raising mechanism and a broad control over the total car population. This feast/famine of COE can be easily solved when GPE ERP becomes active, just open the floodgate to a 100 000 COE a year. Not need for OCS to try to balance out the low supply year. Everyone can afford to own as many car models as they want and they can find a parking space for. Just that they will have to pay to drive it out.

So happy happy, I can keep a two-seater (to zip around), a MPV (to ferry parents) and a Mercs (to show off) for the different occasions of usage that I have

Everyone will be happy. Everyone gets cars of all the varieties that they want instead of being confined to the limit B&B choices due to price-iness of cars Motor traders can sell as many as they want. Government can collect revenues from COE, ARF, Parking Fees, Corporate Tax, Petrol/Fuel tax, Road tax and all other transport related taxes. Insurance companies happy as they can sell more insurance. Banks happy as they can loan more out and earn more interest. Motor workshops happy as they have more cars to maintain.

It's a win - win for everyone

GPS ERP tender has been called last year with 3 vendors bidding and showcasing their capabilities. Test run conducted with the technologies involved. Tender result is suppose to be announced in 2nd half 2015. If everything goes as planned, then we should see the announcement soon after GE. But as all technology related projects, there may be delays, only people involved will know.

I beg to differ but until its out no one knows. Simply because there are still many jobs that require cars operation and unless per day usage has risen to more than $20 or perhaos more, people will still drive. Land is scarce. Carpark is an issue. And it has been commented that the gps tracks selected congested roads and not all roads, but i may be wrong.

Why is everyone so surprised? This pattern has been seen before in the years of expanding supply of COE between 2003 - 2009. That time too, supplier's resist dropping prices drastically and play fishing.

 

I still remember in the pre-cursor forums to MCF, people kpkb why COE prices not dropping fast since supply growing.

 

In took one full year for COE to drop 10K from 2005 to 2004. But, remember the base is lower starting from 20K and back then, loans are 100% loans for ten year. So everytime supplier drop 1 - 2K, people come back in.

 

Now, our base is 50K and loans are 50% for 5 years, can they still play this game and slow the drop? My take is that unlikely. We should see drop of 5K - 10K, then plateau and drop again until mass market prices are reached.

 

See the charts yourself.

Huat ar bro! But then this may be a one time off period only because the floodgates are opened. Just have this bad feeling that garment will be stepping in with ocs to prevent coe from dropping drastically and allowing the cycle to be predictable...

[Ken138]

If there is ERP, there will still be road tax, excise duties, etc not to mention COE.. All these add to state coffers n if they remove COE, they have to get back revenue in some form .. Maybe GST or Road use charges too high till business suffers !

Zero sum game :-)

[Leo72]

If there is ERP, there will still be road tax, excise duties, etc not to mention COE.. All these add to state coffers n if they remove COE, they have to get back revenue in some form .. Maybe GST or Road use charges too high till business suffers !

Zero sum game :-)

 

 

Wrong, at the end of the day, it's the average people who'll suffer.

 

At this level of COE (50K COE for goods vehicle), the price of basic essential stuffs are already high, can't imagine if the COE climb to 100K for goods vehicle.

 

Of course, there are other contributing factors for the high price for basic essential but COE is one of them. The business owners will transfer whatever cost to the end consumers.

Edited August 3, 2015 by Leo72

[shinkong]

I beg to differ but until its out no one knows. Simply because there are still many jobs that require cars operation and unless per day usage has risen to more than $20 or perhaos more, people will still drive. Land is scarce. Carpark is an issue. And it has been commented that the gps tracks selected congested roads and not all roads, but i may be wrong.

 

Huat ar bro! But then this may be a one time off period only because the floodgates are opened. Just have this bad feeling that garment will be stepping in with ocs to prevent coe from dropping drastically and allowing the cycle to be predictable...

 

They should be stepping in and implement some sort of OCS from Jan 2016. The number of de-registration is going faster than they thought.

[kmttan]

I beg to differ but until its out no one knows. Simply because there are still many jobs that require cars operation and unless per day usage has risen to more than $20 or perhaos more, people will still drive. Land is scarce. Carpark is an issue. And it has been commented that the gps tracks selected congested roads and not all roads, but i may be wrong.

 

Huat ar bro! But then this may be a one time off period only because the floodgates are opened. Just have this bad feeling that garment will be stepping in with ocs to prevent coe from dropping drastically and allowing the cycle to be predictable...

 

hmm... imagine that Mr Lim's theory comes true, and if each person on average owns 1 car, we may have 5 millions cars parked somewhere in the HDB carparks. To effectively control these cars, the GPS ERP rate might be $10/km. All these sound very extreme to me, but nonetheless still possible.

[Kkttt]

May I ask the gurus here when is the quota increase up to?

If I remember correctly it's going to peak in mid 2016?

TIA.

[Ben5266]

I beg to differ but until its out no one knows. Simply because there are still many jobs that require cars operation and unless per day usage has risen to more than $20 or perhaos more, people will still drive. Land is scarce. Carpark is an issue. And it has been commented that the gps tracks selected congested roads and not all roads, but i may be wrong.

 

Huat ar bro! But then this may be a one time off period only because the floodgates are opened. Just have this bad feeling that garment will be stepping in with ocs to prevent coe from dropping drastically and allowing the cycle to be predictable...

Ya. 10 years ago, gov wants to let many of us owning cars. So, they decided to increase the COE supply and to increase ERP.

But later, they learned that, car park is equally expensive to provide.

So, even with GPS ERP operational, I doubt there will be a significant increase on the supply of COE.

 

Last we want is to pay another $100k for a car park lot at our home, like what the HongKonger has to pay right now.

[Limwsv]

 

 

Wrong, at the end of the day, it's the average people who'll suffer.

 

At this level of COE (50K COE for goods vehicle), the price of basic essential stuffs are already high, can't imagine if the COE climb to 100K for goods vehicle.

 

Of course, there are other contributing factors for the high price for basic essential but COE is one of them. The business owners will transfer whatever cost to the end consumers.

 

Yep, agree. For a SME business, what's more important, cashflow or cash?

 

If you are businessman, would you prefer to give out one lump sum 60K for get Cat C COE or prefer to pay 10K lump and then slowly pay the remaining 50K over the next ten years?

 

Your answer will tell me whether you're a businessman

Edited August 4, 2015 by Limwsv

[Limwsv]

I beg to differ but until its out no one knows. Simply because there are still many jobs that require cars operation and unless per day usage has risen to more than $20 or perhaos more, people will still drive. Land is scarce. Carpark is an issue. And it has been commented that the gps tracks selected congested roads and not all roads, but i may be wrong.

 

Huat ar bro! But then this may be a one time off period only because the floodgates are opened. Just have this bad feeling that garment will be stepping in with ocs to prevent coe from dropping drastically and allowing the cycle to be predictable...

 

It's a trade-off, you want to be skinned upfront at one lump of 60K or you want to skinned slowly over the years.

 

Of course, the government can always play nasty and do both to you at the same time, skin you big big with a 60K COE and the slowly skin you over the years for another 60K. So pray hard hard that don't come to happen.

 

GPS ERP cannot be siam, govt has been looking at it from day one of Gantry ERP, just that technology not mature enough. Minister himself say now it's ready and set target 2020 for implementation. So skin slowly will happen.

 

Now whether people here to want to be skin upfront or not? If you keep clambering for OCS, government may grant your wish. Then you get skin twice. Seems like lots of people want that, so be it.

 

As for the charges, how it will be implemented is yet to be seen. But if LTA stick to its words and is meant to prevent congestion, then hopefully the system will warn us of congestion and the higher charges for it, so we can siam the charges. Remember LTA likes most roads to be at least 40km/h flow. As long as traffic goes above that speed consistently, most roads should not attract charges.

 

But we all know the famous jam spots, don't we. So those are the ones that will kanna charges.

Ya. 10 years ago, gov wants to let many of us owning cars. So, they decided to increase the COE supply and to increase ERP.

But later, they learned that, car park is equally expensive to provide.

So, even with GPS ERP operational, I doubt there will be a significant increase on the supply of COE.

 

Last we want is to pay another $100k for a car park lot at our home, like what the HongKonger has to pay right now.

 

Don't know why you say so.. I see govt building Multi-Storey carparks everywhere when they can squeeze it in. Even mature estate, they carve out the old surface carpark and rebuild as Multi-Storey, and that's after LTA reduce the supply of COE. Don't even say the new estate, those have cavernous carparks, ask everyone who stay at Seng Kang and Punggol.

 

Only city centre reducing lots to discourage people from driving there and to use train instead.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Limwsv

[Ben5266]

 

It's a trade-off, you want to be skinned upfront at one lump of 60K or you want to skinned slowly over the years.

 

Of course, the government can always play nasty and do both to you at the same time, skin you big big with a 60K COE and the slowly skin you over the years for another 60K. So pray hard hard that don't come to happen.

 

GPS ERP cannot be siam, govt has been looking at it from day one of Gantry ERP, just that technology not mature enough. Minister himself say now it's ready and set target 2020 for implementation. So skin slowly will happen.

 

Now whether people here to want to be skin upfront or not? If you keep clambering for OCS, government may grant your wish. Then you get skin twice. Seems like lots of people want that, so be it.

 

As for the charges, how it will be implemented is yet to be seen. But if LTA stick to its words and is meant to prevent congestion, then hopefully the system will warn us of congestion and the higher charges for it, so we can siam the charges. Remember LTA likes most roads to be at least 40km/h flow. As long as traffic goes above that speed consistently, most roads should not attract charges.

 

But we all know the famous jam spots, don't we. So those are the ones that will kanna charges.

 

Don't know why you say so.. I see govt building Multi-Storey carparks everywhere when they can squeeze it in. Even mature estate, they carve out the old surface carpark and rebuild as Multi-Storey, and that's after LTA reduce the supply of COE. Don't even say the new estate, those have cavernous carparks, ask everyone who stay at Seng Kang and Punggol.

 

Only city centre reducing lots to discourage people from driving there and to use train instead.

HDB merely correcting their mistake by building more car park post 2010.

Now, some areas still quite tight but some areas already has extra lots at 12 mid night.

In 2009, people complaining they can't get a lot when home at 9pm.