Jump to content

2015 Jul, 1st COE Bidding Exercise


yo2020
 Share

Recommended Posts

how are 2nd hand cars doing ? Still $10K depreciation for 9 yo?

where have you been? 2nd hand car, no 11k depreciation no talk ok.

↡ Advertisement
Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

 

14ihi6f.jpg

 

hor hor hor... slightly more bids but QP still down... [sunny]

mayb lots of potential buyers r waiting for Aug. [lipsrsealed]

 

To add to YoYo's chart.

 

11tn32o.png

 

CAT A bid accuracy return to a more normal semblance, with almost 50% of the bids in range of the final result of 58700. Another 45% of the bids within the old benchmark of 67.5K as the upper bound. A smattering (5% of bids) of dealers still trying for Cat B COE in Cat A category, maybe they hoping to single-handly move the market back up? In fact, someone is trying to bid for COE at above 81900 right at the top of the chart.

 

Still, that means that dealers does not have enough orders to compete desperately amongst each other to fulfill the guarantee bids order. This should be interpret as a sign that market has room to soften. If it's not for the increase in supply for next quarter, prices should level off and stabilized at 58K - 62K. With the increase supply, we may see yet another fall as dealers now have a harder time to fill orders at current early July price.

 

However, this time it is the dealers trying for Cat B that badly misjudged the available demand. 40% of bids for Cat B is between 72050 and 75325. They have been actually preparing for the demand for Cat B to bounce by from the last fall or at least stay level. Instead, the bottom drop out of the market all the way to 65500.

 

Predictably, we will soon see a convergence of Cat A and Cat B as the price gap between Cat A cars and Cat B cars widen due to the increase in CEVS (Cat B tends to be less efficient and thus more badly hit by CEVS). So buyers are forced to move into Cat A to continue driving, contributing to a increase demand of Cat A COE. Correspondingly, Cat B cars demand falls as most of those cars are now above 160K for the less popular brands. So Cat B COE price falls.

 

Eventually, that should bring Cat B car prices back into play.

Edited by Limwsv
  • Praise 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

Current car prices are not reflective of COE prices.

 

Back in Feb 15 when COE was $57K, I was considering either Swift 1.4A or Almera 1.5M @ $88K.

 

Today, COE at $58.6K, both the above models are selling at $93K.

 

Altis 1.6A was selling for $102K, a good $10K less than today's $112K.

 

You see the disparity and do your sums.

 

Only when the buying stops, will prices drop.

Buying will not stop...

Link to post
Share on other sites

Went to take a walk around ubi mega mart on a Saturday afternoon.

 

Its like a ghost town.....from level 1 to 5....

After that went to C&C...abit of crowd, probably 5 families....only 1 signing documents. Good luck to those 9yrs old used car sellers of 12k depreciation.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Supercharged

Went to take a walk around ubi mega mart on a Saturday afternoon.

 

Its like a ghost town.....from level 1 to 5....

After that went to C&C...abit of crowd, probably 5 families....only 1 signing documents. Good luck to those 9yrs old used car sellers of 12k depreciation.

 

Families got to go enrichment classes on Saturday lah... maybe all aim to go Sunday leh.

 

Or all aiming to go during hari raya public holiday next Friday....

 

Jokes aside... notice that Saturday papers not much car promos... maybe next weekend then all chiong for order after annoucement of new quota.

Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

from May to Jul cat A drop $10k, cat B drop $12k

is the current car price drop by $10k? [sly]

Edited by Wt_know
Link to post
Share on other sites

Got money then buy lor...

 

Bo money no buy...

 

Thot its very simple...

 

I like current COE and 50% dp... weed out those who zero downpayment buyers who pushed up the number of cars on the road... else we will see the same discussion for next 10 yrs

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Got money then buy lor...

 

Bo money no buy...

 

Thot its very simple...

 

I like current COE and 50% dp... weed out those who zero downpayment buyers who pushed up the number of cars on the road... else we will see the same discussion for next 10 yrs

Im all in for 0 loan policy for cars :)

  • Praise 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Neutral Newbie

 

To add to YoYo's chart.

 

11tn32o.png

 

CAT A bid accuracy return to a more normal semblance, with almost 50% of the bids in range of the final result of 58700. Another 45% of the bids within the old benchmark of 67.5K as the upper bound. A smattering (5% of bids) of dealers still trying for Cat B COE in Cat A category, maybe they hoping to single-handly move the market back up? In fact, someone is trying to bid for COE at above 81900 right at the top of the chart.

 

Still, that means that dealers does not have enough orders to compete desperately amongst each other to fulfill the guarantee bids order. This should be interpret as a sign that market has room to soften. If it's not for the increase in supply for next quarter, prices should level off and stabilized at 58K - 62K. With the increase supply, we may see yet another fall as dealers now have a harder time to fill orders at current early July price.

 

However, this time it is the dealers trying for Cat B that badly misjudged the available demand. 40% of bids for Cat B is between 72050 and 75325. They have been actually preparing for the demand for Cat B to bounce by from the last fall or at least stay level. Instead, the bottom drop out of the market all the way to 65500.

 

Predictably, we will soon see a convergence of Cat A and Cat B as the price gap between Cat A cars and Cat B cars widen due to the increase in CEVS (Cat B tends to be less efficient and thus more badly hit by CEVS). So buyers are forced to move into Cat A to continue driving, contributing to a increase demand of Cat A COE. Correspondingly, Cat B cars demand falls as most of those cars are now above 160K for the less popular brands. So Cat B COE price falls.

 

Eventually, that should bring Cat B car prices back into play.

 

Hi,

 

Great analysis. Btw, Im just curious where did you extract the information on distribution of bids and bidded price?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Im all in for 0 loan policy for cars :)

 

But then there is no stopping people from taking a personal loan from bank for the 50% downpayment and another car loan for the remaining 50%. that is like double whammy.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Turbocharged

. Good luck to those 9yrs old used car sellers of 12k depreciation.

 

Aiyo , they no worries one la , cos the take in the car at paper ( or close) value . Nobody buy , just scrap and break even ( or lose little bit ) lor .

  • Praise 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

 

But then there is no stopping people from taking a personal loan from bank for the 50% downpayment and another car loan for the remaining 50%. that is like double whammy.

 

unsecured loan of 50k is not easy to obtain.....

anyway if they borrow 50% via personal loan to buy car, its even better...more auction cars to bid for :D

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

unsecured loan of 50k is not easy to obtain.....

anyway if they borrow 50% via personal loan to buy car, its even better...more auction cars to bid for :D

The amount if unsecured loan that a person can get is going to be reduced.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...