Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

[13177]

As long as those car owner who de-registered their car never give up in owning a car, COE will not drop. Seriously, how many people we know of give up car ownership. For me, I only know of one guy who give up cause he still own a bike.

So far i noticed that none of my friends & colleagues who are driving currently give up driving. Either they buy a new car or used car.

[Limwsv]

Why would the coe be lower by end 2015? As there are so many cars de-registered end towards end of the year and begining of 2016 onwards. I believe there are still many car owners looking to replace their current car.

 

Price resistance. Ten years ago, the current batch of owners facing de-registration bought their cars at COE of 30K - 40K. If they are not price sensitive, they would have changed their cars every 2 - 4 years that a lot of the forumers here seems to do.

 

So, face with car prices of 120K for Corolla Altis versus 70K ten years ago, they may choose to give up their cars.

 

Add me to your statistics of people who have given up their cars. I am refusing to pay COE at 60K and above. I will not re-enter until the market for a Altis reaches 80K. If it nevers, so be it, I need the money for my retirement more than I need a car.

[Limwsv]

Think there are many who give up, at least temp aiming for a lower coe or not able to come up with the downpayment as can see from the demand of old car, leading to dealers happily chopping carrot. However, that is not to say demand has drop substantially as many new buyers coming as well. My take is soften demand but not sub drop. May be right, maybe wrong but I stick to my opinion and hence, will wait and see before deciding on purchase.

 

You are entitled to your viewpoint.

 

However, in pushing your viewpoint publicly, it also meant that it will be challenged.

 

Firstly, demand always exist, the key thing is not that demand exist, but the demand at a price point. So, your statement that demand will soften is misleading. At the current price point, all entrants willing to pay for 60K - 65K COE is almost exhausted.

 

If you don't believe, take a walk around the car showrooms, (which I have done). The car salespersons are all slapping flies last weekend, and that's despite that it will be the last chance for anyone to buys cars at the old CEVS values.

 

If all the new buyers and COE replacement pool are buying at 63K, I am not seeing them. Probably everyone is holding off until after July to see how the new expansion of the available COEs will affect car prices.

 

As for the number of new buyers, their numbers are weaker than you think.

 

Unless they are like the guy on prime news for buying a BMW E class with income of 3.8K, the number of new buyers will be limited as shown by the chart above.

 

So, the situation now is that two segments are being played off against each other. The buyers are withholding purchases until car prices dropped, the ADs are withholding price drop to protect margins. It's like the property market after the introduction of TDRS, HDB sellers not selling and buyers not buying. Of course, for the car market, AD has advantage that COE runs out in ten years.

Edited June 8, 2015 by Limwsv

[Jujitsuka]

I more interested when they will revert back to 10 year loan? COE high is better than paying down payments of 50% or 40%... Unless you want to change cars every 2 to 3 years then its bad to suffer the depreciation and interest repayments of a 10 year loan.

 

But if you intend to drive your car for the full loan tenure its much better with a 10 year loan. The amount of money that you would use for down payments can be better off utilized elsewhere such as investments etc.

[Forte3737]

What for need so many stats? If can afford, then buy lor.

 

You are entitled to your viewpoint.

 

However, in pushing your viewpoint publicly, it also meant that it will be challenged.

 

Firstly, demand always exist, the key thing is not that demand exist, but the demand at a price point. So, your statement that demand will soften is misleading. At the current price point, all entrants willing to pay for 60K - 65K COE is almost exhausted.

 

If you don't believe, take a walk around the car showrooms, (which I have done). The car salespersons are all slapping flies last weekend, and that's despite that it will be the last chance for anyone to buys cars at the old CEVS values.

 

If all the new buyers and COE replacement pool are buying at 63K, I am not seeing them. Probably everyone is holding off until after July to see how the new expansion of the available COEs will affect car prices.

 

As for the number of new buyers, their numbers are weaker than you think.

 

Unless they are like the guy on prime news for buying a BMW E class with income of 3.8K, the number of new buyers will be limited as shown by the chart above.

 

So, the situation now is that two segments are being played off against each other. The buyers are withholding purchases until car prices dropped, the ADs are withholding price drop to protect margins. It's like the property market after the introduction of TDRS, HDB sellers not selling and buyers not buying. Of course, for the car market, AD has advantage that COE runs out in ten years.

 

[Limwsv]

What for need so many stats? If can afford, then buy lor.

 

 

Cannot afford, so not buying. More people in the not buy camp, ADs and PIs will have to give up. See who can wait who out.

[Forte3737]

I see. There is another guy yo2020. Done a hell of a good job in analysing stats.

 

Cannot afford, so not buying. More people in the not buy camp, ADs and PIs will have to give up. See who can wait who out.

 

[tyco_kia]

 

I did a check of the car showrooms over the weekend. Base on what I am seeing in terms of the number of customers at the showrooms, I doubt that COE at 60K A and 70K B is sustainable. And that's for the last chance at pre-CEVS change prices.

 

The new floor will be at 55K A and 65K B to bring back the CNY crowds.

 

which car showrooms you went about?

 

My opinion is that even if COE drops to 55k, the CEVS changes for cars will cause car prices to remain as it is. I believe this is a ploy by the govt to make sure car prices remain as it is so that they can control population.

[Forte3737]

IF COE is low, govt will find ways to make it high

 

which car showrooms you went about?

 

My opinion is that even if COE drops to 55k, the CEVS changes for cars will cause car prices to remain as it is. I believe this is a ploy by the govt to make sure car prices remain as it is so that they can control population.

 

[13177]

 

Price resistance. Ten years ago, the current batch of owners facing de-registration bought their cars at COE of 30K - 40K. If they are not price sensitive, they would have changed their cars every 2 - 4 years that a lot of the forumers here seems to do.

 

So, face with car prices of 120K for Corolla Altis versus 70K ten years ago, they may choose to give up their cars.

 

Add me to your statistics of people who have given up their cars. I am refusing to pay COE at 60K and above. I will not re-enter until the market for a Altis reaches 80K. If it nevers, so be it, I need the money for my retirement more than I need a car.

There is still another option, buy used car.

[Angcheek]

After GE ??? You say lel ?

 

I will say lower if I see an Pig climb up a tree.

[Leinad8919]

After GE ??? You say lel ?

 

I will say lower if I see an Pig climb up a tree.

Your wish is my command Sir....lets make it a double....😅😅

[Heman75]

 

Price resistance. Ten years ago, the current batch of owners facing de-registration bought their cars at COE of 30K - 40K. If they are not price sensitive, they would have changed their cars every 2 - 4 years that a lot of the forumers here seems to do.

 

So, face with car prices of 120K for Corolla Altis versus 70K ten years ago, they may choose to give up their cars.

 

Add me to your statistics of people who have given up their cars. I am refusing to pay COE at 60K and above. I will not re-enter until the market for a Altis reaches 80K. If it nevers, so be it, I need the money for my retirement more than I need a car.

this is only your thinking.. the demand still strong.. youngster would love to own a car.. become a face value thing.. not everyone will think so logic like u.. I am one of those who don't think logic.. haha

I see. There is another guy yo2020. Done a hell of a good job in analysing stats.

 

this yoyo I salute him .. he like dam free no need to work ahaha can do spreadsheet and compile data. BTW I find the COE discussion getting boring.. hahah last time used to be very exciting now sian.. guess too much of everything is no good

 

Edited June 8, 2015 by Heman75

[Jq1988]

When gov said use public transport, sure COE price will go up...it is impossible to have cheap COE like old time liao...very sian!

[Lowchia]

this is only your thinking.. the demand still strong.. youngster would love to own a car.. become a face value thing.. not everyone will think so logic like u.. I am one of those who don't think logic.. haha

this yoyo I salute him .. he like dam free no need to work ahaha can do spreadsheet and compile data. BTW I find the COE discussion getting boring.. hahah last time used to be very exciting now sian.. guess too much of everything is no good

 

 

 

 

Have been monitoring the car forum since beginning of this year.

 

I like when the COE discussion is getting boring and less ppl joining in.

 

There was alot of discussion on COE during CNY and guess what happen.........

 

I hope the COE discussion will remain dead and it means the buying interest is low.

[Angcheek]

Your wish is my command Sir....lets make it a double....😅😅

 

hahaha some people will go all ways out just to have lower COE.

 

 

 

Have been monitoring the car forum since beginning of this year.

 

I like when the COE discussion is getting boring and less ppl joining in.

 

There was alot of discussion on COE during CNY and guess what happen.........

 

I hope the COE discussion will remain dead and it means the buying interest is low.

 

but price during CNY is lowest too.......

 

btw, what is lowchia ? I know Lau Chia , Sin Chia ....... Mata chia ...

[Heman75]

 

 

 

Have been monitoring the car forum since beginning of this year.

 

I like when the COE discussion is getting boring and less ppl joining in.

 

There was alot of discussion on COE during CNY and guess what happen.........

 

I hope the COE discussion will remain dead and it means the buying interest is low.

 

haha u too optimistic ... discussion dead doesn't mean buying interest low... maybe some just forget it waited too long and decided to go buy..

[jaayh]

if year end COE still so high...... limpeh gonna migrate go MY buy one AE86 and Silvia sua already.