Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

[Heman75]

Sometimes I wonder is there any meaning discussing COE go up or down. Can see ppl arguing so aggressively. each has his own stand and like want to fight. come on just a piece of paper. can afford buy cannot afford don't buy. What is the big deal? can only blame oneself for not being rich enough to buy. this is a realistic world. money speaks. honestly the government don't owe everyone a COE. why should the government make coe easily reachable to us. they too want to make money. hai....

Edited June 11, 2015 by Heman75

[Limwsv]

Sometimes I wonder is there any meaning discussing COE go up or down. Can see ppl arguing so aggressively. each has his own stand and like want to fight. come on just a piece of paper. can afford buy cannot afford don't buy. What is the big deal? can only blame oneself for not being rich enough to buy. this is a realistic world. money speaks. honestly the government don't owe everyone a COE. why should the government make coe easily reachable to us. they too want to make money. hai....

 

Agree totally. Cannot afford means cannot afford lor.

 

I have given up my car. Now I can take potshots at those still driving. It's only human nature to envy and gossip and stir the sh*t.

 

To help stir more sh*t, here's the COE prices over the last 5 years, courtesy of ST.

 

 

It took 1.5 years from Oct 2013 to Apr 2015 to bring the COE prices down by 15K.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Limwsv

[Enye]

more propaganda to discourage car ownership

 

so you think COE will go up or down?

 

Weaning Singaporeans off their cars

 

BY JOY FANG

[email protected]

PUBLISHED: 4:16 AM, JUNE 11, 2015

The German city of Leipzig has a youthful and carefree vibe with beautiful archaic architecture. With an area of only about 297 sq km and housing 550,000 inhabitants, it is also surprisingly nimble and diverse in its public transport offerings.

Trams are the city’s main transport arteries, supplemented by the S-bahn train system, buses and ride-sharing services that connect key spots along the tram lines. Many people cycle too, as the city has dedicated cycling lanes and bicycle-sharing services.

Tram usage in Leipzig takes up 30 per cent of the total transport mode pie, while cars and bicycles take up 40 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. S-bahn accounts for the remaining 10 per cent. The city aims to lower personal car usage to 30 per cent and increase tram use to 35 per cent in the next 10 years, Mayor Burkhard Jung told me in a recent interview in this city about 150km south of Berlin.

How does this compact and vibrant city plan to wean its people off cars? And what lessons in transport planning can Leipzig offer Singapore?

THE TRAM OPTION

Mr Jung says the key to people relying less on their four-wheelers is to make public transport attractive, reliable and almost as fast as a car, while at the same time reducing public space for cars.

Take the city’s tram network, for example. It is the second biggest in Germany, after Berlin, boasting a route length of 150km, 13 lines and 516 tram stops with an average distance of 530m between stops.

Mr Jung said it’s a “very comfortable and direct system”, with trams typically arriving every 10 minutes. “Everybody knows you don’t have to wait too long for the next one,” he said.

University student Sarah Peraz, 23, told TODAY that trams are her mode of choice because they are most accessible. “In 10 minutes, you can take five or six trams because there are different numbers going to the same point.”

Ms Juliane Wilz, 20, said it is comfortable and safe, especially during winter, when it is too cold to ride her bike.

Mr Jung’s office is also planning a “fast highway” for cyclists that run from the south of the city to the inner city. “You have to make it such that (the message is) it’s fun and sexy to go by bicycle or it’s comfortable to go by tram during winter or heavy rains,” he said.

Agreeing, Mr Marc Backhaus, a spokesman from Leipziger Verkehrsbetriebe (LVB) GmbH — which operates Leipzig’s tramway and bus transport services and is owned by the City of Leipzig — says LVB tries to market trams as modern vehicles and a fast mode of transport with barrier-free stops. The firm also run services more frequently on Saturdays “to win more passengers in times of high demand”.

The efforts have paid off. Trams are the number one means of public transport in Leipzig, ferrying about 110 million passengers a year. In contrast, buses carry about 25 million passengers annually, while light railway is used by some 10 million passengers a year.

So the question one must ask is: If Leipzig can do it, why not Singapore?

While Singapore has limited space, Mr Jung said a tram system here is possible, and less complicated because of its size. “If you can combine the streets, and I think you have big streets in Singapore, then I think it’s possible to do it in the middle of the street, and share it with cars.”

Mr Backhaus says tram lines require a width of approximately 7m of the road if they run on a separate road bed, but there are other space-saving solutions. This includes street-level tracks where trams and cars use the same lane.

Terminal loops require a lot of space so one option in Singapore is bi-directional trams with dead-end tracks, he noted. This means instead of having trams circle around, they stop at a terminal and head back the other way.

Singapore can use trams to complement its railway system, because it is easier and a smaller investment to plan for tram stops since they are aboveground, said Mr Jung. To ensure this push for trams is successful, it’s all “about education, having your own dedicated lanes and enforcement,” he added.

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) and Urban Redevelopment Authority were previously reported to be considering bringing trams to the One-North and Marina Bay area. But no decision appears to have been made.

PRIORITISING LAND USE

Beyond simply offering transport alternatives, perhaps the whole overarching masterplan for land use needs to be re-examined. The LTA aims to have 75 per cent of trips during both the morning and evening peak hours made by public transport by 2030.

In February, it was reported that public transport ridership grew last year by 4.6 per cent to hit a record 6.65 million trips per day, while the car population had shrunk to a four-year low.

The Republic has been trying to steer people towards public transport and while signs show it is moving in the right direction, progress has been slow.

Many Singaporeans aspire to own a car for social status, and lack a more diverse range of travel alternatives to impel them to give up cars. Perceived unreliability and overcrowding also put some Singaporeans off public transport while cycling is deemed to be dangerous, due to a lack of dedicated lanes and a general sense of aggressive behaviour by drivers.

The National Cycling Plan envisions a cycling network of more than 700km by 2030, and some HDB towns have already been equipped with intra-town cycling path networks. But these are not dedicated cycling lanes, and cyclists who are riding longer distances often have to jostle for a tiny space on the left hand side of the left lane, or ride on the pavement — and risk a fine.

Some experts have suggested that policy makers should use a tougher carrot-and-stick approach to push people towards taking public transport.

Mr Jose Viegas, secretary-general of the International Transport Forum at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, who has visited Singapore many times, said what the Republic may need is “stronger doses” of the medicine.

Too many cars? Increase the tolls. Too little space for dedicated cycling lanes? Take away the land meant for cars, he said.

Priority in land use should first go to pedestrians, then cyclists. “And then whatever is left is for the cars … It’s what (we call) priority in allocation,” he said.

“People will adjust. If it’s a public interest, governments will have to be smart enough, bold enough to convey this to the population and say we have to follow it.”

With Singapore’s small size and high technological adoption, the odds are in the Republic’s favour in its drive towards achieving a public-transport-centred city. And as Mr Viegas pointed out, small tentative adjustments may not work. Perhaps it is time for bolder measures to bring about changes in Singaporeans’ mindsets and behaviour.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Joy Fang is a senior reporter at TODAY who covers the transport beat.

 

[tyco_kia]

People will always aim to buy car because it's a form of "status" and 'image" so like it or not, the temptation or need or whatever you call it to buy a car will always be there. What the government is trying to do is keep car prices high so that they can discourage one household to only have one car maximum. At least that's what I think they're trying to do. In the past when COE was at all time low, everybody buy car like nobody's business. One household can have 2 or more cars, really no problem.

[Ralliart99]

there is always the golden number 6000,000 so even if COE drops will be around 50k-60k range

 

for those still dreaming of COE during the yesteryears, please wait long long and wait somemore

 

 

[13177]

People will always aim to buy car because it's a form of "status" and 'image" so like it or not, the temptation or need or whatever you call it to buy a car will always be there. What the government is trying to do is keep car prices high so that they can discourage one household to only have one car maximum. At least that's what I think they're trying to do. In the past when COE was at all time low, everybody buy car like nobody's business. One household can have 2 or more cars, really no problem.

When car is low, indeed everyone on the street also own a car. Esp those OPC car, so easy to buy one. Lol. Thats why now they are filtering the car ownership, eliminating all those who cannot own a car and yet bought a car back then, and only genuine people who really can afford a car buy a car now.

[Mrmilktooth]

#YOLO..

 

just hoot new car that you like !! mai tu liaozz..

[Angcheek]

remove buslane and make it a Tram lane.....

 

 

 

 

 

The German city of Leipzig has a youthful and carefree vibe with beautiful archaic architecture. With an area of only about 297 sq km and housing 550,000 inhabitants, it is also surprisingly nimble and diverse in its public transport offerings.

Trams are the city’s main transport arteries, supplemented by the S-bahn train system, buses and ride-sharing services that connect key spots along the tram lines. Many people cycle too, as the city has dedicated cycling lanes and bicycle-sharing services.

Tram usage in Leipzig takes up 30 per cent of the total transport mode pie, while cars and bicycles take up 40 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. S-bahn accounts for the remaining 10 per cent. The city aims to lower personal car usage to 30 per cent and increase tram use to 35 per cent in the next 10 years, Mayor Burkhard Jung told me in a recent interview in this city about 150km south of Berlin.

How does this compact and vibrant city plan to wean its people off cars? And what lessons in transport planning can Leipzig offer Singapore?

THE TRAM OPTION

Mr Jung says the key to people relying less on their four-wheelers is to make public transport attractive, reliable and almost as fast as a car, while at the same time reducing public space for cars.

Take the city’s tram network, for example. It is the second biggest in Germany, after Berlin, boasting a route length of 150km, 13 lines and 516 tram stops with an average distance of 530m between stops.

Mr Jung said it’s a “very comfortable and direct system”, with trams typically arriving every 10 minutes. “Everybody knows you don’t have to wait too long for the next one,” he said.

University student Sarah Peraz, 23, told TODAY that trams are her mode of choice because they are most accessible. “In 10 minutes, you can take five or six trams because there are different numbers going to the same point.”

Ms Juliane Wilz, 20, said it is comfortable and safe, especially during winter, when it is too cold to ride her bike.

Mr Jung’s office is also planning a “fast highway” for cyclists that run from the south of the city to the inner city. “You have to make it such that (the message is) it’s fun and sexy to go by bicycle or it’s comfortable to go by tram during winter or heavy rains,” he said.

Agreeing, Mr Marc Backhaus, a spokesman from Leipziger Verkehrsbetriebe (LVB) GmbH — which operates Leipzig’s tramway and bus transport services and is owned by the City of Leipzig — says LVB tries to market trams as modern vehicles and a fast mode of transport with barrier-free stops. The firm also run services more frequently on Saturdays “to win more passengers in times of high demand”.

The efforts have paid off. Trams are the number one means of public transport in Leipzig, ferrying about 110 million passengers a year. In contrast, buses carry about 25 million passengers annually, while light railway is used by some 10 million passengers a year.

So the question one must ask is: If Leipzig can do it, why not Singapore?

While Singapore has limited space, Mr Jung said a tram system here is possible, and less complicated because of its size. “If you can combine the streets, and I think you have big streets in Singapore, then I think it’s possible to do it in the middle of the street, and share it with cars.”

Mr Backhaus says tram lines require a width of approximately 7m of the road if they run on a separate road bed, but there are other space-saving solutions. This includes street-level tracks where trams and cars use the same lane.

Terminal loops require a lot of space so one option in Singapore is bi-directional trams with dead-end tracks, he noted. This means instead of having trams circle around, they stop at a terminal and head back the other way.

Singapore can use trams to complement its railway system, because it is easier and a smaller investment to plan for tram stops since they are aboveground, said Mr Jung. To ensure this push for trams is successful, it’s all “about education, having your own dedicated lanes and enforcement,” he added.

The Land Transport Authority (LTA) and Urban Redevelopment Authority were previously reported to be considering bringing trams to the One-North and Marina Bay area. But no decision appears to have been made.

PRIORITISING LAND USE

Beyond simply offering transport alternatives, perhaps the whole overarching masterplan for land use needs to be re-examined. The LTA aims to have 75 per cent of trips during both the morning and evening peak hours made by public transport by 2030.

In February, it was reported that public transport ridership grew last year by 4.6 per cent to hit a record 6.65 million trips per day, while the car population had shrunk to a four-year low.

The Republic has been trying to steer people towards public transport and while signs show it is moving in the right direction, progress has been slow.

Many Singaporeans aspire to own a car for social status, and lack a more diverse range of travel alternatives to impel them to give up cars. Perceived unreliability and overcrowding also put some Singaporeans off public transport while cycling is deemed to be dangerous, due to a lack of dedicated lanes and a general sense of aggressive behaviour by drivers.

The National Cycling Plan envisions a cycling network of more than 700km by 2030, and some HDB towns have already been equipped with intra-town cycling path networks. But these are not dedicated cycling lanes, and cyclists who are riding longer distances often have to jostle for a tiny space on the left hand side of the left lane, or ride on the pavement — and risk a fine.

Some experts have suggested that policy makers should use a tougher carrot-and-stick approach to push people towards taking public transport.

Mr Jose Viegas, secretary-general of the International Transport Forum at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, who has visited Singapore many times, said what the Republic may need is “stronger doses” of the medicine.

Too many cars? Increase the tolls. Too little space for dedicated cycling lanes? Take away the land meant for cars, he said.

Priority in land use should first go to pedestrians, then cyclists. “And then whatever is left is for the cars … It’s what (we call) priority in allocation,” he said.

“People will adjust. If it’s a public interest, governments will have to be smart enough, bold enough to convey this to the population and say we have to follow it.”

With Singapore’s small size and high technological adoption, the odds are in the Republic’s favour in its drive towards achieving a public-transport-centred city. And as Mr Viegas pointed out, small tentative adjustments may not work. Perhaps it is time for bolder measures to bring about changes in Singaporeans’ mindsets and behaviour.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Joy Fang is a senior reporter at TODAY who covers the transport beat.

 

 

[youpapalite]

 

You are one funny one... you quote report that shoot your own arguments to pieces.

 

(1)..

This means the over the next 15 years till 2030, we are going to see more and more people give up driving as they are older.

 

People give up driving as they are older? Hmm... your theory?

 

(2) Growth in Resident (actual data, not projected)

 

The low COE period = 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. Lets see. From 4.4m - 5.4m That is 1m more people in Singapore. How many % of that will be able to purchase a car? No one knows. But 1m is a significant amount. Another 1.5m in 15 years time.

 

(3) Worse still, the report you quote shows the proportion of FTs that has Employment Pass, the only group within the non-residents that earns enough income to even think about buying a car. That's a measly 12% of 1.5m non-residents. Aka, 1 angmoh for every 9 bangla worker.

 

1.49m non-residents. Work permit holder form 46%. Foreign domestic worker form 13%. Employment pass holder form 12%. S pass holder form 9%. Students form 6% Dependants of Citizen/PR form 15%.

 

Employment pass holder and S pass holder do earn enough income to purchase a car be it new or used. Some % of the students also are able to purchase a used car. Not sure about dependants of Citizen/PR. So if we were to ignore the students and Dependants, it is actually 1 out of 5 bangala worker. Which is quite a huge amount ( Roughly 300k)

 

Even your own argument that most people are buying 2nd cars shoots itself. By implication, a buyer that chooses a 2nd car is one less from the pool of bidders for COE. As that pool reduces and exhausts those that have the withdrawal to buy at the current car prices, (@COE 60K)

 

So you're trying to say as long as people keep hunting for 2nd hand cars = COE prices will crash as less people are bidding? Good luck with that. Well, that is your perception. And it's different from mine. There will always be people rich enough to buy, taxi companies etc etc. Noticed how some 1-2 year car are having higher depreciation as compared to new cars and are being sold? To each his own.

 

If those people can jump in and push the COE prices back up, then why go through the hassle of buying a 2nd car in the first place. Just pay the current COE prices and hold the price there. And if so, why hasn't it happen since 2014, ie when Cat A COE is at 75K. Why haven't everyone one jump in and help keep Cat A COE at 75K? We should be seeing Cat A at 75K or more base on your type of argument, which basically ignore that not everyone has the money to buy at 75K prices and then 65K prices.

 

Did you just shoot yourself? "If those people can jump in and push the COE prices back up, then why go through the hassle of buying a 2nd car in the first place. Just pay the current COE prices and hold the price there." "We should be seeing Cat A at 75K or more base on your type of argument, which basically ignore that not everyone has the money to buy at 75K prices and then 65K prices."

 

So you're saying those people waiting should pay the current COE price. Then after that you say not everyone has the money to buy at 75k and 65k prices. Make up your mind.

 

People go through the hassle of buying a 2nd hand car because they ARE waiting and hoping that the COE will crash/drop as they are not willing to pay or have the means to pay the 75k/65k price.. There are many other reasons too such as the MAS loan etc which leads back to not having the means to pay. EVEN IF they could afford to pay at 75k, being singaporean, everyone wants to wait hoping the price drop to 'kio tio'. Who wants to bang their balls in a few months time? SO they/we ARE waiting. When it drops everyone will jump back in to push the prices up period.

You may argue that more 2nd hand cars are being purchased = less new bidders for the COE. But from the results it's not happening as there are more 'rich' people in SG and definately more people now too. Expect 20-30k COE pricing? Wait long long.

 

BTW, I have given up my car and change over to a racing bike. So like a lot of angmohs, I am now fighting with you'll cars on the roads in the morning drive! :) If you bash into me you better kill me, otherwise I will appear in the news for punching bus drivers and smashing car windows with my bike like those ang mohs too

 

When COE comes dropping will u be bidding? IF yes, then you have just confirmed my theory. IF no, then thank god. 1 less person to fight for it. Of course i hope i am wrong. Cause i am in the group of people holding out till the COE drops.

 

 

[youpapalite]

 

Agree totally. Cannot afford means cannot afford lor.

 

I have given up my car. Now I can take potshots at those still driving. It's only human nature to envy and gossip and stir the sh*t.

 

To help stir more sh*t, here's the COE prices over the last 5 years, courtesy of ST.

 

 

It took 1.5 years from Oct 2013 to Apr 2015 to bring the COE prices down by 15K.

And your point is? Notice how it hovers around that range. 60-70k. Whenever there is a plunge, the next bidding will shoot up. Then remain stagnant for a while and then it will drop. Thereafter shoot back up again. For it to drop till 20 -40k, wait long long. When/if it hits 50k i will jump in already. Heck, i may even jump in soon.

Edited June 11, 2015 by youpapalite

[Heman75]

 

Agree totally. Cannot afford means cannot afford lor.

 

I have given up my car. Now I can take potshots at those still driving. It's only human nature to envy and gossip and stir the sh*t.

 

To help stir more sh*t, here's the COE prices over the last 5 years, courtesy of ST.

 

 

It took 1.5 years from Oct 2013 to Apr 2015 to bring the COE prices down by 15K.

you really going to stir up more shit.. ahhaha there will be ppl coming in to challenge you and then no end..what so big deal about COE. like we said.. can afford means can afford.. cannot means cannot.

[Limwsv]

you really going to stir up more shit.. ahhaha there will be ppl coming in to challenge you and then no end..what so big deal about COE. like we said.. can afford means can afford.. cannot means cannot.

 

Yep. Sure no end. Only some people will cry since they lose money, earning or commission Not me though since I don't own a car anymore and won't until the COE goes back to the 40K region.

 

Notice that I don't start pushing out data unless people start spouting nonsense?

Edited June 11, 2015 by Limwsv

[Voodooman]

 

Current Cat A 66k

Current Cat B/E 75k

 

Where got drop 25%? 2nd half 2012 there was a peak when Cat B > 90k

 

Even if have (few months ago), it quickly rebounded/corrected back.

And overall car price have not drop

 

No need to wait year end, 3 years back already people saying COE will drop.

So have Cat A rebounded to 90k plus?

[Heman75]

 

Yep. Sure no end. Only some people will cry since they lose money, earning or commission Not me though since I don't own a car anymore and won't until the COE goes back to the 40K region.

 

Notice that I don't start pushing out data unless people start spouting nonsense?

those buy don't look back .. those never then continue to wait.. so simple.

[will80]

 

Yep. Sure no end. Only some people will cry since they lose money, earning or commission Not me though since I don't own a car anymore and won't until the COE goes back to the 40K region.

 

Notice that I don't start pushing out data unless people start spouting nonsense?

 

Sound to me like cannot eat grape and hence the grape is sour.

 

If cannot afford now, work harder and set your target to the current COE. If just waiting for COE to drop, then think really had to wait long long.

[Damienic]

 

Sound to me like cannot eat grape and hence the grape is sour.

 

If cannot afford now, work harder and set your target to the current COE. If just waiting for COE to drop, then think really had to wait long long.

I was one of those who would never imagine myself to ever buy a car with Coe of over 60k in the past. I also advocated waiting for it to come down as I firmly believed there is a fair chance of Coe coming down to below 60k since late last year. But it never happened. Quarter after quarter when there are more Coe quota being released into the market, the Coe never came down. Coe was about 65-66k in July 2014. After 4 consecutive quarters of more quota release since then, Coe premium for CAT B yet is at 75k. At least 60% more Coe is available every month now since one year ago and yet the premium is even higher than before.

 

That is why after waiting and waiting, I could wait no more and proceeded to book myself a car just few days ago. As of now, I believe even if there are more Coe releases in the next few quarters from now, the premium would at most drop to 65k. So for me I don't believe in waiting any more unless you still have quite sometime to go in changing your ride and not really in urgent need to change soon.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Damienic

[Voodooman]

I was one of those who would never imagine myself to ever buy a car with Coe of over 60k in the past. I also advocated waiting for it to come down as I firmly believed there is a fair chance of Coe coming down to below 60k since late last year. But it never happened. Quarter after quarter when there are more Coe quota being released into the market, the Coe never came down. Coe was about 65-66k in July 2014. After 4 consecutive quarters of more quota release since then, Coe premium for CAT B yet is at 75k. At least 60% more Coe is available every month now since one year ago and yet the premium is even higher than before.

 

That is why after waiting and waiting, I could wait no more and proceeded to book myself a car just few days ago. As of now, I believe even if there are more Coe releases in the next few quarters from now, the premium would at most drop to 65k. So for me I don't believe in waiting any more unless you still have quite sometime to go in changing your ride and not really in urgent need to change soon.

We share the same predicament, bought in Feb. Just buy at a level you can afford and be prepared for weakening COE. I predict my "losses" won't exceed 10k but if it does, so be it lah.

 

So what did you book?

[Nissan833]

 

Agree totally. Cannot afford means cannot afford lor.

 

I have given up my car. Now I can take potshots at those still driving. It's only human nature to envy and gossip and stir the sh*t.

 

To help stir more sh*t, here's the COE prices over the last 5 years, courtesy of ST.

 

 

It took 1.5 years from Oct 2013 to Apr 2015 to bring the COE prices down by 15K.

 

Like that I can take pot shots at people being unable to afford the cost of driving in SG?

 

Why you so sour one? Lol.