Will COE be higher or lower by 2015 year end?

[Aaronlkl]

Confirm guarantee fall..

[Tigershark1976]

confirm drop lah, just the matter drop by how much. a $10 drop is also drop, should vote in +/- in % form....

[kmttan]

I predict no change.

For Cat A, the quota increases by 289. However, 363 cars did not get their COEs in the previous round.

For Cat B, the quota increases by 125. However, 339 cars did not get their COEs in the previous round.

For Cat E, the quota decreases by 109 and 167 cars did not get their COEs in the previous round.

Hence, 869 backlog cars will be fighting for these extra 305 COEs.

Furthermore, those deals from the car show may not have entered their bid yet.

[Watwheels]

I thought it is all formulize? ie. dereg plus 0.25% growth rate

 

Ppl who are waiting won't be convinced mah. So I point to the obvious to let them know lor. Make it simple so that ppl can see and stop asking altogether. LoL...

[Tohto]

Will drop, by a bit maybe. Honestly I predict it will NEVER drop below $50,000. Govt won't allow it.

 

Maybe before the GE.....just nice for my car change..

[Quantum]

Lets all guess what happens by this year end

CAT A should drop, maybe reach to 50k around,

but CAT B, hard to say, maybe still retain 70K around

[Sunset73]

At the end of the day, COE will definitely remain around this level.

Why do I say that? Simply because:

 

When more COE quota comes in, prices drop. So when everyone see prices drop let's say to 40K~ Cat A or Cat B, all chiong to car showroom. In order to get the COE for the customer, car dealers bid aggressively. So the next COE price is back to before the COE dip prices. So end of the day, still back to square 1.

 

Though we will argue about the 5 year loan quantum and the 50% downpayment rules, there are some dealers who offer "in house" loans or mark up car prices in order to get the customer their "50% loan". So end of the day, there are still a lot of people buying and bidding for cars. No significant drop should be observed.

[AndrewLee72]

Shall we organize a nice Seafood Buffet invite all those AD staff who is incharge of COE bidding to attend.

 

I think many of us would like to know who they are and how come they can bid such a nice figure whereby all AD bid the same...

 

Do you think they dare to attend... hmmmm

[Chelsea901]

 

interesting mah

 

then time to upgrade car again uh?

Higher lower how much?

$1 different count boh

now also happening leh, sometimes increase few hundred sometimes drop

[Forte3737]

Shall we organize a nice Seafood Buffet invite all those AD staff who is incharge of COE bidding to attend.

 

I think many of us would like to know who they are and how come they can bid such a nice figure whereby all AD bid the same...

 

Do you think they dare to attend... hmmmm

They will tell u this:no money, dun buy.

[Icy2fire]

CAT A should drop, maybe reach to 50k around,

but CAT B, hard to say, maybe still retain 70K around

I agree. This round of adjustments has already indicated the government's future direction. The government seems to be introducing a tier coe system which reflects the price difference in cat. Cat A will go lower as it is meant for the masses, those who die die need a car.

 

Cat B can be the same or higher as this group of people has sufficient money to go for higher end cars, meaning they are not just looking for a basic vehicle.

 

If I can use an analogy, Cat A is like HDB, and Cat B is like condo. They will make Cat A affordable (doesn't mean cheap though) while Cat B due to the limited supply will be likely higher. But hey, since you are the one who wanna get Cat B instead of A, you should not complain about the pricing.

Edited January 27, 2015 by Icy2fire

[Sunset73]

I agree. This round of adjustments has already indicated the government's future direction. The government seems to be introducing a tier coe system which reflects the price difference in cat. Cat A will go lower as it is meant for the masses, those who die die need a car.

 

Cat B can be the same or higher as this group of people has sufficient money to go for higher end cars, meaning they are not just looking for a basic vehicle.

 

If I can use an analogy, Cat A is like HDB, and Cat B is like condo. They will make Cat A affordable (doesn't mean cheap though) while Cat B due to the limited supply will be likely higher. But hey, since you are the one who wanna get Cat B instead of A, you should not complain about the pricing.

 

End of the day, no matter whether COE is high or low, us consumers lose out the most. Let's say COE dips to 30k in general across the board for all categories, a brand new toyota altis cost you 80k as a rough estimate.

 

Will many people be able to afford a brand new car now? I will say no. Ultimately, how many of us is able to take out 40% of the car price as downpayment, which in this case is 32K? and afford the high monthly instalments on the 5-year loan?

 

Gone were the days of 0 downpayment and 10 year loan. All these has made the average joe harder to own a car.

The sad truth of life.

[F355]

 

Gone were the days of 0 downpayment and 10 year loan. All these has made the average joe harder to own a car.

The sad truth of life.

 

There are a million other things in life which are more meaningful than the ability to own a car.

[Icy2fire]

 

End of the day, no matter whether COE is high or low, us consumers lose out the most. Let's say COE dips to 30k in general across the board for all categories, a brand new toyota altis cost you 80k as a rough estimate.

 

Will many people be able to afford a brand new car now? I will say no. Ultimately, how many of us is able to take out 40% of the car price as downpayment, which in this case is 32K? and afford the high monthly instalments on the 5-year loan?

 

Gone were the days of 0 downpayment and 10 year loan. All these has made the average joe harder to own a car.

The sad truth of life.

Bro I think the government did the right thing to removed the 100% loan. I did not agree when the government allowed 100% loan as it only serves to benefit the banks.

 

Not sure what is the interest rate now but assuming it is 3% and the car cost 150k, one will be paying $45k to the bank over 10 years at $1625 per month. Affordable but financially unwise.

 

Car loan interest is unlike housing loan interest, there is no discounting when you make your monthly payments. A 3% car loan is effectively equal to a housing loan of 5.46%! Given than banks are paying us close to 0% for our savings. They are profiting 5%.

 

Personally will recommend those who wanna but to save up for it over a few years. If the person is unable to save the down payment in a few years, he is obviously not in a suitable situation to buy a car in the first place.

[Andyngps]

 

End of the day, no matter whether COE is high or low, us consumers lose out the most. Let's say COE dips to 30k in general across the board for all categories, a brand new toyota altis cost you 80k as a rough estimate.

 

Will many people be able to afford a brand new car now? I will say no. Ultimately, how many of us is able to take out 40% of the car price as downpayment, which in this case is 32K? and afford the high monthly instalments on the 5-year loan?

 

Gone were the days of 0 downpayment and 10 year loan. All these has made the average joe harder to own a car.

The sad truth of life.

Bro, i concur and the sad truth of life is that we are residing in a small island. You also do not wish everyone to own cars because when traffic becomes horrendous, you also do not want to drive and get stuck in traffic for hours. Many of us grew up in a family who did not own car and we also hardly complain. Last time where got jams? And a coe cost like 100K, which is easily half the price of a hdb during those times when hdb cost 200k. Buying a car is like almost buying a house. Most people just get on with life. Nowadays with coe at 60-70k, and a bnb car costs about 100k, with the same size hdb costing about 500K nowadays, cars are considered cheaper % wise compared to those years. Not to mention that seemingly cars are now only prob about 10% when compared to a same size condo or perhaps just 5-8% for a prime location condo. We are complaining cars cost much because we are comparing it to the period when it was so easy to own cars and coincidentally it was a period when houses were relatively cheaper too, though one may say that coe is an economic independent on its own. I am not an expert in this field but I just do not think in a small island, cars can cost a small fraction compared to housing anymore. From the garments point of view, maybe it is already good for the people when coe was coming to half of what it used to be 20 years back. There are in fact plenty of people who can throw the down payment easily, just like how they buy properties, but just that perhaps few is so willing to throw into depreciating asset.

[Sunset73]

 

There are a million other things in life which are more meaningful than the ability to own a car.

 

Have to agree with you but some people just like driving. No matter their salary 1k, 2k or 5k, they will do what it takes to try to own one.

Seen too many such people around me.

Bro I think the government did the right thing to removed the 100% loan. I did not agree when the government allowed 100% loan as it only serves to benefit the banks.

 

Not sure what is the interest rate now but assuming it is 3% and the car cost 150k, one will be paying $45k to the bank over 10 years at $1625 per month. Affordable but financially unwise.

 

Car loan interest is unlike housing loan interest, there is no discounting when you make your monthly payments. A 3% car loan is effectively equal to a housing loan of 5.46%! Given than banks are paying us close to 0% for our savings. They are profiting 5%.

 

Personally will recommend those who wanna but to save up for it over a few years. If the person is unable to save the down payment in a few years, he is obviously not in a suitable situation to buy a car in the first place.

 

For me, even if I am able to forkout 60k for a 50% downpayment, I wouldn't do it. Car is a depreciating asset.

If I cannot get it for a low downpayment ie. <20k, I wouldn't buy the car. So I will most likely stick to used cars.

Bro, i concur and the sad truth of life is that we are residing in a small island. You also do not wish everyone to own cars because when traffic becomes horrendous, you also do not want to drive and get stuck in traffic for hours. Many of us grew up in a family who did not own car and we also hardly complain. Last time where got jams? And a coe cost like 100K, which is easily half the price of a hdb during those times when hdb cost 200k. Buying a car is like almost buying a house. Most people just get on with life. Nowadays with coe at 60-70k, and a bnb car costs about 100k, with the same size hdb costing about 500K nowadays, cars are considered cheaper % wise compared to those years. Not to mention that seemingly cars are now only prob about 10% when compared to a same size condo or perhaps just 5-8% for a prime location condo. We are complaining cars cost much because we are comparing it to the period when it was so easy to own cars and coincidentally it was a period when houses were relatively cheaper too, though one may say that coe is an economic independent on its own. I am not an expert in this field but I just do not think in a small island, cars can cost a small fraction compared to housing anymore. From the garments point of view, maybe it is already good for the people when coe was coming to half of what it used to be 20 years back. There are in fact plenty of people who can throw the down payment easily, just like how they buy properties, but just that perhaps few is so willing to throw into depreciating asset.

 

Right.. and I don't see our govt promoting OPC cars anymore.. there used to be a period when OPC was aggressively promoted.

You don't really see newly registered OPC cars nowadays.

[Icy2fire]

For me, even if I am able to forkout 60k for a 50% downpayment, I wouldn't do it. Car is a depreciating asset.

If I cannot get it for a low downpayment ie. <20k, I wouldn't buy the car. So I will most likely stick to used cars.

If you have the money and has the means to safely make more than 5% per year, then I agree with you. If you are not able to do so (think most Singaporeans are unable to do so), it is better to use it for the down payment cuz you save more in the long run.

 

Anyway nothing wrong with used cars. You can save a lot buying used cars and some of them still looks and feels new.

[Sunset73]

If you have the money and has the means to safely make more than 5% per year, then I agree with you. If you are not able to do so (think most Singaporeans are unable to do so), it is better to use it for the down payment cuz you save more in the long run.

 

Anyway nothing wrong with used cars. You can save a lot buying used cars and some of them still looks and feels new.

 

Haha, conclusion is.. just stick to used cars. I am going to get rid of my car after COE is up and change to 8-9 year old cars.

In the event of any unlikely COE dip, the risk would be lower for me.