Voodooman Supersonic January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Given the massive 40% increase in Cat A COE quota, prices should drop more, will this encourage some Cat B buyers to buy a Cat A car? ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowdad 2nd Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 More rich people will be buying second or third car if price can drop, how to drop with so much pent up demand? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ben5266 Supercharged January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 What if COE remains higher than 40K for the next 5 years? It is quite a high possibility given the claw back. I felt that it is not just the coe stopping people but the pain of the 40/50% downpayment.DTL will be ready. My son in sec school. I don't need 2 cars. I will let go 1 car to help ease the Coe price. I would say , both high price and 50% down would stop people from owing cars. 1 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inadatan Neutral Newbie January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Lets compare the difference between last COE quota cycle: Group A Nov-Jan quota: 698 per bidding cycle Increased by 273 from previous per bidding cycle Results: price went up from 60k before stablize at 65k. Analysis. This was significantly attributed by the numerous end of year car sales. The lagging of Supply of COE as compared to COE dereg is another contribution factor. Group A Feb-Apr quota: 987 per bidding cycle increased by 289 per bidding cycle. Will upcoming motor show results in increase in COE Demand? The number of pax dereg cars will increase as well since the dereg is on the increase uptrend. This results in supply always lagged behind demand for 3 months. Unless many pple bought 2nd hand car for this cohort, else, we'll see price stable at same range, a repeat of OCT-Dec COE supply quota. The dereg vehicle trend will only ease off in year 2017, where the supply will finally exceed demand. However, LTA has indicated it'll keep COE supply for draught years after 2017. Hence, more is to be seen after 2017. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powxus 3rd Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 i happened to be the one who bought 2 cars 5 and 6 years ago. I can confirm, I am not changing car if COE remain above $40k. But I reserve the possibility to let go 1 car while the COE is still insane. That's because you have 2 cars. For those with 1 car, most of them would probably sell their existing ride at a good price now since this is probably also the best time to change new car with increase in COE quota. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyngps 5th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Lets compare the difference between last COE quota cycle: Group A Nov-Jan quota: 698 per bidding cycle Increased by 273 from previous per bidding cycle Results: price went up from 60k before stablize at 65k. Analysis. This was significantly attributed by the numerous end of year car sales. The lagging of Supply of COE as compared to COE dereg is another contribution factor. Group A Feb-Apr quota: 987 per bidding cycle increased by 289 per bidding cycle. Will upcoming motor show results in increase in COE Demand? The number of pax dereg cars will increase as well since the dereg is on the increase uptrend. This results in supply always lagged behind demand for 3 months. Unless many pple bought 2nd hand car for this cohort, else, we'll see price stable at same range, a repeat of OCT-Dec COE supply quota. The dereg vehicle trend will only ease off in year 2017, where the supply will finally exceed demand. However, LTA has indicated it'll keep COE supply for draught years after 2017. Hence, more is to be seen after 2017. In other words its going to be near 60K for a while..... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matrix0405 5th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Define equilibrium point bro. Eq pt is supply = demand. Eq pt for Cat A ~ 850. New supply is slightly above this no. So $65k cannot hold. But don expect $45K. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piyopico Supercharged January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Eq pt is supply = demand. Eq pt for Cat A ~ 850. New supply is slightly above this no. So $65k cannot hold. But don expect $45K. Huh? Demand of 850 is at coe of 65k for Cat A. If price drops to 60k demand can be 1000 or 1200. If COE drops to 55k demand can be 1500 or 2000. If bird flu starts tomorrow demand can be 500. Nobody can predict that. 3 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vyeron 4th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Good news! Not hoping COE will be down but at least will have more new cars on the road :) Got many colleagues aim to buy their first car ler, how can COE price soften? Haha Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
L23 6th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Eq pt is supply = demand. Eq pt for Cat A ~ 850. New supply is slightly above this no. So $65k cannot hold. But don expect $45K. If only.... everything is so ideal as per the books and classroom teaching, we will not have war and financial crisis.... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voodooman Supersonic January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Good news! Not hoping COE will be down but at least will have more new cars on the road :) Got many colleagues aim to buy their first car ler, how can COE price soften? Haha And they are waiting for price to drop? Or they already bought? So if price don't drop, they won't buy? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angcheek Hypersonic January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Good news! Not hoping COE will be down but at least will have more new cars on the road :) Got many colleagues aim to buy their first car ler, how can COE price soften? Haha whats the driving force for them to get a car ? 2 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bismarck Turbocharged January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 i happened to be the one who bought 2 cars 5 and 6 years ago. I can confirm, I am not changing car if COE remain above $40k. But I reserve the possibility to let go 1 car while the COE is still insane. I too was in the same situation as yours. Bought in 07 and 08 and had already sold off 1 car 2 years ago. Never thought can get profit from selling my ride and I think it will not happen anymore. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyngps 5th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Eq pt is supply = demand. Eq pt for Cat A ~ 850. New supply is slightly above this no. So $65k cannot hold. But don expect $45K. Bro, if I am not wrong number of bids for Cat A may even exceed 1000 due to demand and also accumulated unsuccessful bids from previous rounds. How do you get 850? If I am not wrong the last two rounds saw 900plus bids for Cat A. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vyeron 4th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 And they are waiting for price to drop? Or they already bought? So if price don't drop, they won't buy? Yes, they can afford and just wait for cheaper COE in 2015-2016. Mostly are young family with kid, so i dont see why COE will drop much. Most drivers will scrap and buy back, then plenty of newcomers are ready to replace those who gave up driving. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vyeron 4th Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 whats the driving force for them to get a car ? Family usage mainly. Baby booming for SG50 .... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
darth_vader_ 2nd Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 the big elephant in the room is the 0.25% annual vehicle growth. some folks just cant see it. panic bidding coming not crash. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calford 2nd Gear January 14, 2015 Share January 14, 2015 Good news? 14114 COE quota will be available from Feb to Apr 2015. Increase from 11932. Lets hope COE come down If COE is down my car price also go down when I sell. Not much of difference for someone changing their car then buying their first car. ↡ Advertisement Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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