Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

[Piyopico]

  On 1/13/2015 at 8:33 AM, Enye said:

just keep in mind the differences between the coming coe quota tsunami and the previous one when you read this data

 

previous

govt encouraged car ownership

increase in quota unexpected by car buyers

 

current

govt encouraging public transport

increase in quota expected by car buyers

 

 

Now, this is a recipe for disaster........

 

You can plan and anticipate but how it pans out is another matter.

 

More people are renewing their Coe for 5 years. There was a report that says 2000 plus but I dunno for which period.

[Dafansu]

  On 1/13/2015 at 8:42 AM, Little_prince said:

but you pay for pqp also cannot take loan.

 

so you pay the 60-70k cash for the coe also no advantage. infact more cash upfront

 

1. noise.

2. dangerous riding ( stradling 2 lanes, cut in and out of traffic, speeding etc)

 

no big loss to ban bikes in sg.

 

PQP can take loans, but the interest is much higher

[Powxus]

  On 1/13/2015 at 10:04 AM, Piyopico said:

Now, this is a recipe for disaster........

 

You can plan and anticipate but how it pans out is another matter.

 

More people are renewing their Coe for 5 years. There was a report that says 2000 plus but I dunno for which period.

 

That's because everyone is anticipating for COE to drop and taking interim steps to tie over into the high COE supply period. 2nd hand car dealers are also taking this opportunity to markup for those 1-2 years left cars.

Edited January 13, 2015 by Powxus

[Bc75]

  On 1/13/2015 at 10:42 AM, Powxus said:

 

That's because everyone is anticipating for COE to drop and taking interim steps to tie over into the high COE supply period. 2nd hand car dealers are also taking this opportunity to markup for those 1-2 years left cars.

Those taking interim steps are infact helping to recycle their coe back into the system. If LTA does not plan for further clawback from Feb 2015, COE tsunami should be not far away...

[yo2020]

  On 1/13/2015 at 10:04 AM, Piyopico said:

More people are renewing their Coe for 5 years. There was a report that says 2000 plus but I dunno for which period.

based on the LTA's mthly data on vehicles' age distribution, i deduced that the COE renewal is abt 100-150 per mth in 2014. this is the total COE renewal for Cat A & B cars n renewal for 5 n 10yrs.

mayb when COE was low, it was 10 per mth, but now 100 per mth, so up 10 times!!

but when comparing to the 3500 dereg per mth, the COE renewal is only abt 5%, which is not really significant.

 

source: http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M01-03M-Age.pdf

[F355]

There are 606,069 cars aged 0 to 10 yrs. On boom years, 100,000 cars are registered every and in the lean years , 20,000 cars. Since Mr Lui has mentioned that they will save some COEs from boom years to be passed to the lean years , I presume he is looking at around 60,000 registrations a year .

 

Dont be surprised if for the next few years , 100k cars scrap every but only release 60k COEs . If that happens , the price will skyrocket . Better wait for the years where only 20k cars scrap but got 60k COEs available .

[bhslee]

  On 1/14/2015 at 2:07 AM, F355 said:

There are 606,069 cars aged 0 to 10 yrs. On boom years, 100,000 cars are registered every and in the lean years , 20,000 cars. Since Mr Lui has mentioned that they will save some COEs from boom years to be passed to the lean years , I presume he is looking at around 60,000 registrations a year .

 

Dont be surprised if for the next few years , 100k cars scrap every but only release 60k COEs . If that happens , the price will skyrocket . Better wait for the years where only 20k cars scrap but got 60k COEs available .

 

have to say only one thing.....tan ku ku

[Kyrios]

  On 1/3/2015 at 11:41 PM, yo2020 said:

it will b more than Feb-Apr 2015. for May-Jul 2015, i m looking at at least another 20% more.

When will the formal announcement come forth from the gahmen?

[Forte3737]

With the supply for Feb-April not increasing much, everyone who renew coe matters a lot to the overall figures. Dun ask me how i know the supply figure, its confidential

  On 1/14/2015 at 1:22 AM, yo2020 said:

based on the LTA's mthly data on vehicles' age distribution, i deduced that the COE renewal is abt 100-150 per mth in 2014. this is the total COE renewal for Cat A & B cars n renewal for 5 n 10yrs.

mayb when COE was low, it was 10 per mth, but now 100 per mth, so up 10 times!!

but when comparing to the 3500 dereg per mth, the COE renewal is only abt 5%, which is not really significant.

 

source: http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M01-03M-Age.pdf

 

[Piyopico]

 

I dunno if this is confirmed or just speculation. The govt has said they will clawback some supply and try to avoid the feast and famine cycle? If true, best case scenario 100,000 Coe will be avail in 2015. If we do an averaging, the supply of Coe over a 10 year period is 60,000 a year.

 

If they implement this, 2015 will offer 60,000 to 70,000 Coe. This should then be the same going forward for the next 3 years till 2008.

 

It will be at least a doubling of 2014 Coe if these figures come to pass, In that case, I think the Coe will at most drop into the 40-50k region going forward the next 3 years. This is barring a major economic downturn. I am also expecting Coe to maintain or even go up by second half of the year simply because the car dealers do not want to sell me a package tied to a car which arrives 6 month later. If they are confident Coe will moderate, they should have tied buyers down to a fixed price package now. Unless there are reasons which I dun really understand.

 

The govt not confirming whether this is the plan creates too much uncertainty and many buyers are making decisions to buy new, renew Coe for 5/10 years or buy resale based on speculation. Somebody will get hurt pretty badly, we just dunno who at this point.

[yo2020]

  On 1/12/2015 at 8:35 AM, yo2020 said:

still no news frm LTA yet, but this shld b the week LTA will announce the COE Quota for the next quarter.

pretty sure there were more dereg in Dec n i adjusted the Cat A&B figures as shown below.

we are looking at 40% more Cat A n 20% more Cat B. but the increase in Cat B may b marred by the decrease in Cat E.

 

LTA has jz made the announcement. wow... 2 days earlier than the last 2 rounds.

 

here's the summary:

a) Cat A up 41% as projected! there r 289 more Cat A quota per bidding exercise!!!

B) Cat B up 27%, Cat E down 34%. But NETT is 64 more Cat B & D combined COE quota per bidding exercise!!

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by yo2020

[Wt_know]

if 110k-125k coe per year ... got chance for coe to retract to $40k or below

4500-5500 coe per bidding

time to change car

Edited January 14, 2015 by Wt_know

[Piyopico]

  On 1/14/2015 at 7:35 AM, Wt_know said:

if 100k-125k coe per year ... got chance for coe to retract to $40k or below

4500-5500 coe per bidding

time to change car

80,000 Coe can already la.......... dip dip but no crash crash.

[yo2020]

  On 1/14/2015 at 7:26 AM, yo2020 said:

 

LTA has jz made the announcement. wow... 2 days earlier than the last 2 rounds.

 

here's the summary:

a) Cat A up 41% as projected! there r 289 more Cat A quota per bidding exercise!!!

b) Cat B up 27%, Cat E down 34%. But NETT is 64 more Cat B & E combined COE quota per bidding exercise!!

 

further comments:

* 64 more Cat B & E combined COE quota per bidding exercise means up 7.7%.

* both dereg for Cat A & B up a lot in Dec, especially Cat B. Cat A up 9.4% n Cat B up 18.6% when compared to Nov's.

[Forte3737]

  On 1/14/2015 at 8:06 AM, yo2020 said:

further comments:

* 64 more Cat B & E combined COE quota per bidding exercise means up 7.7%.

* both dereg for Cat A & B up a lot in Dec, especially Cat B. Cat A up 9.4% n Cat B up 18.6% when compared to Nov's.

Not too good.I expect car dealers to decrease prices by about 3k.new car prices will remain high

[Kyrios]

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/more-coes-for-february-to/1589238.html

 

here is the good news pointed out by bros here..

[Forte3737]

  On 1/14/2015 at 8:46 AM, Kyrios said:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/more-coes-for-february-to/1589238.html

 

here is the good news pointed out by bros here..

It's not good news.986 plus for Cat A per bidding not good

[Wt_know]

with this headline ...

expect big crowd in showroom during weekend liao

 

More COEs for February to April quota

Edited January 14, 2015 by Wt_know