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Monthly Sharing on Dereg Data & Projected COE Quota

yo2020

By yo2020,
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yo2020

yo2020

6th Gear

I shall share these after LTA released the monthly data every month (usually it's on the 12th or the next working day).
Here is my 1st sharing basing on LTA's jz released data for Oct 2014.

1) Both the number of dereg for Cat A and Cat B went up 11% and 9%, respectively.
Cat A dereg for Oct is doubled of Jan's!!
30ue64j.png

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yo2020

yo2020

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2) These are the Projected COE Quota for Feb-Apr 2015 based on LTA's new formulae from Feb 2015.
Cat A: Up 39%
Cat B: Up 18%
14ca2ib.png
Note: The projected quota for Cat C & E shall be less accurate compared to other Cats due to a few factors.

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So_nice

So_nice

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If they control the amount of coe released then nothing is changed. Those deregistered doesn't mean they are not looking for another car in the new car market

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Tohto

Tohto

Hypersonic

I think i can no longer wait. have to buy the almera asap

 

I think there are still much better car than almera with a few more $K.

The almera interior quality is too plastic and equipment level is also very low.

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frenchfly

frenchfly

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Unless the owner scrap the car and dont use the money to buy new cars

 

then those praying for coe to fall every nite will get their cheap coe at their dream price....last heard they hoping 20k

 

How pigs died....cos they were book smart but street dumb

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Forte3737

Forte3737

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I think there are still much better car than almera with a few more $K.

The almera interior quality is too plastic and equipment level is also very low.

I agree. Also considering elantra. Not into fancy gadgets, more into a reliable engine
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Soya

Soya

Supersonic

Good effort by TS.

 

But no need to over-analyse. The scholars hv prob studied the projections & predicted price levels. LTA will prob claw back the COEs and let COE hover around $45-50k. A 'rolla will be around $100k and that's considered 'affordable' to keep the electorate happy while not killing the golden goose to fund all the social freebies.

 

 

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Tohto

Tohto

Hypersonic

I agree. Also considering elantra. Not into fancy gadgets, more into a reliable engine

 

Not talking about fancy gadgets.

But safety equipment like ESP, traction control and more airbag is always important.

Just from last weekend ST, from next onwards, all car in Europe must equiped with ESP. Which currently most B & B car here are lacking.

OK, don't want to OT too much on TS thread.

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yo2020

yo2020

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(edited)

dwq9n7.png
this is the cars' age at the end of every month (so far this year), pay attention to the last row.

what this means is that we are walking into a tsunami of COE Quota where there shall be 5000+ dereg every month pretty soon!!

as a comparison, there were 2639, 3187 n 3513 dereg in last Aug, last Sep n last month, respectively.

at the peak of tsunami, this figure may be hitting 10,000 dereg a month. :o

Edited by yo2020
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yo2020

yo2020

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of course with more COE Quota is also likely not enough for all buyers, but having more quota will likely reduce the buyer's competition for each quota.
this in turn, hopefully, shall bring the COE Premium down.
in other words, i believe COE Premium shld b lower comparing "2 buyers fighting for 1 COE" scenario n "5 buyers fighting for 1 COE" scenario. [smash]
n with the max 50-60% loan rule, hopefully, will keep certain groups of potential buyers away. [lipsrsealed]

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Volvobrick

Volvobrick

Supersonic

 

Not talking about fancy gadgets.

But safety equipment like ESP, traction control and more airbag is always important.

Just from last weekend ST, from next onwards, all car in Europe must equiped with ESP. Which currently most B & B car here are lacking.

OK, don't want to OT too much on TS thread.

Airbag is not even mandatory over here, meaning lower OMV, what more ABS or ESP, so that the car buyer can bid more for the COE with the savings from OMV and related!

 

Garmen first before safety.

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Spring

Spring

Moderator

I agree. Also considering elantra. Not into fancy gadgets, more into a reliable engine

 

Actually Kia K3 is also quite impressive, you can consider also but obviously more pricey

compared to Almera but not up to Jap car price

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Detach8

Detach8

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(edited)

Nice work yo2020. Appreciate it.

 

I think what will happen is that we'll see a lot of dereg next year, and possibly quite a fair bit of renewals and we will start to see these COE cars appear on the market for resale.

 

I'm also considering renewing parent's 2005 Volvo V50 because I think it is cheaper to renew than to buy any car now. The car is a workhorse, and our family loves it.

 

I checked out a Honda Stream RSZ, and I didn't quite like it. Of course the 1.8L engine cannot compare to the 2.4L in the Volvo, but even the way it handles, the sound insulation, the way it absorbs bumps on the road, the interior quality is no where near the coming 10 year old Volvo. It has been relatively trouble free ownership for us and the OMV is not very high, so I feel it's worth a renewal. I'm not surprised many owners or dealers renew the conti cars. There's some nice E46 BMWs around, and I think those should get renewed. Very wasted if they don't.

 

That said, I also feel that COE will hover around 50K. 40K at minimum.

Edited by Detach8
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Forte3737

Forte3737

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Nice work yo2020. Appreciate it.

 

I think what will happen is that we'll see a lot of dereg next year, and possibly quite a fair bit of renewals and we will start to see these COE cars appear on the market for resale.

 

I'm also considering renewing parent's 2005 Volvo V50 because I think it is cheaper to renew than to buy any car now. The car is a workhorse, and our family loves it.

 

I checked out a Honda Stream RSZ, and I didn't quite like it. Of course the 1.8L engine cannot compare to the 2.4L in the Volvo, but even the way it handles, the sound insulation, the way it absorbs bumps on the road, the interior quality is no where near the coming 10 year old Volvo. It has been relatively trouble free ownership for us and the OMV is not very high, so I feel it's worth a renewal. I'm not surprised many owners or dealers renew the conti cars. There's some nice E46 BMWs around, and I think those should get renewed. Very wasted if they don't.

 

That said, I also feel that COE will hover around 50K. 40K at minimum.

If parf is high,no point renew unless you love it

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Detach8

Detach8

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If parf is high,no point renew unless you love it

 

How high is high?

 

Even if my PARF is 60K, I will still renew. I forgo 30K, then buy 70K COE = 100K. Now can barely buy a Vios.

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