2014 Aug 2nd COE Bidding Exercise

[Dinobros]

COE plays a big part in our social life in Singapore.

Its worth studying.

 

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:18 PM, Mcist said:

Korean... Dr study Singapore's bs COE trend ? haha...
These ppl should be studying things that can or will help the mankind rather the
money minded gov created to indirectly squeeze $$$ from its ppl

 

[Mcist]

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:31 PM, Dinobros said:

COE plays a big part in our social life in Singapore.

Its worth studying.

 

 

 

i would like to disagree with that... keke

maybe thats the reason i am a diploma holder only haha

[Wt_know]

diploma holder can become CEO and eat COE for breakfast, lunch and dinner

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:46 PM, Mcist said:

i would like to disagree with that... keke
maybe thats the reason i am a diploma holder only haha

 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Wt_know

[Duckduck]

  On 8/21/2014 at 12:59 PM, Dinobros said:

I am in that group of 8-9 years old car.

We will only see the real drop in 2 years and hopefully the demand is lower than the supply.

 

 

 

whoever r buying now can more than afford watever theyre buying now considering the 40/50% down now, so the rest of the guys who cannot afford now all waiting for the expected crash soon... my view is i wonder how much of a crash its gona b if the majority are gona scrap their cars at the same time n all of them waiting to buy as well... in other words how to drop much if so many wanna change cars at the same time?

 

[Wt_know]

the MAGIC number is $20K ... that's the COE from 2004-2009 .... 6 years of low coe

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:53 PM, Duckduck said:

whoever r buying now can more than afford watever theyre buying now considering the 40/50% down now, so the rest of the guys who cannot afford now all waiting for the expected crash soon... my view is i wonder how much of a crash its gona b if the majority are gona scrap their cars at the same time n all of them waiting to buy as well... in other words how to drop much if so many wanna change cars at the same time?

 

Edited August 21, 2014 by Wt_know

[Mcist]

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:53 PM, Duckduck said:

 

whoever r buying now can more than afford watever theyre buying now considering the 40/50% down now, so the rest of the guys who cannot afford now all waiting for the expected crash soon... my view is i wonder how much of a crash its gona b if the majority are gona scrap their cars at the same time n all of them waiting to buy as well... in other words how to drop much if so many wanna change cars at the same time?

 

That will depends on how many ppl can afford

40/ 50% downpayment plus shorter loan terms lor...

[Wt_know]

this has been proven no problem

else coe should have crashed to $20k, no?

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 3:11 PM, Mcist said:

That will depends on how many ppl can afford

40/ 50% downpayment plus shorter loan terms lor...

[Mcist]

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:49 PM, Wt_know said:

diploma holder can become CEO and eat COE for breakfast, lunch and dinner

 

 

Haha... Can meh ?

Never heard our PM say in national day speech leh... Keke

[Duckduck]

  On 8/21/2014 at 3:07 PM, Wt_know said:

the MAGIC number is $20K ... that's the COE from 2004-2009 .... 6 years of low coe

 

so is LTA gona make d same mistake again?

[Mcist]

  On 8/21/2014 at 3:15 PM, Wt_know said:

this has been proven no problem

else coe should have crashed to $20k, no?

 

 

Now COE is like stocks already...

 

You need stock/ housing/ job market to crash with lots of loses, retrenchment,

prolong bad sentiments & lots of fear then will fall la...

[Atonchia]

  On 8/21/2014 at 12:59 PM, Dinobros said:

I am in that group of 8-9 years old car.

We will only see the real drop in 2 years and hopefully the demand is lower than the supply.

 

 

 

It's an assumption that the COE will drop.

 

LTA already said the will save some COE for 2019-2023.

How many percent? we don't know.

 

If 100k cars need to scrapped this year, 100k pple many be bidding for ie. 95k COE released.

Wouldn't the AD need to fight for these limited certs?

 

Then next year same thing happened, 100k scrapped, then 95k released,

We may have 100k + 5k pple from this year bidding for 95k COE, Wouldn't that pushed up the COE further?

 

Only LTA be able to tell us if the COE will goes up or down by the percentage points they are keeping aside for the COE drought in 2019.

[Dinobros]

Yup, its juz an assumption.

Singaporean is willing to pay for their car and since the 40/50% started 2 years back.

I believe many would have saved sufficient for the 40/50% downpayment.

 

Many are just not willing to commit due to the fear that COE may drop in the near future.

If COE do remain stable at 60k +- in 2015/2016 when the so called 100k per year car scrap.

It will be likely that 60-70k coe will become a norm.

 

We should be able to see the trend by January if COE demand is dependent on the supply.

It a moving demand curve as the supply as you pointed out is dependent on the demand as well.

"people who scrap will also want/need to buy"

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 4:26 PM, Atonchia said:

 

It's an assumption that the COE will drop.

 

LTA already said the will save some COE for 2019-2023.

How many percent? we don't kn

 

If 100k cars need to scrapped this year, 100k pple many be bidding for ie. 95k COE released.

 

Then next year same thing happened, 100k scrapped, then 95k released,

We may have 100k + 5k pple from this year bidding for 95k COE, Wouldn't that pushed up the COE further?

 

Only LTA be able to tell us if the COE will goes up or down by the percentage points they are keeping aside for the COE drought in 2019.

 

yes, agreed.

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 3:25 PM, Mcist said:

Now COE is like stocks already...

You need stock/ housing/ job market to crash with lots of loses, retrenchment,
prolong bad sentiments & lots of fear then will fall la...

 

[Dinobros]

Many SME boss in singapore are diploma... Diploma POWER

the academia discuss about COE, Boss think of how to make more $$$

 

LOL - Anyway you look at the COE thread, if we combine the monthly thread on COE into a single thread.

This may be the longest thread in mycarforum. See the impact to social life in Singapore?

 

 

  On 8/21/2014 at 2:46 PM, Mcist said:

i would like to disagree with that... keke
maybe thats the reason i am a diploma holder only haha

 

[Lincoln]

  On 8/21/2014 at 4:26 PM, Atonchia said:

 

It's an assumption that the COE will drop.

 

LTA already said the will save some COE for 2019-2023.

How many percent? we don't know.

 

If 100k cars need to scrapped this year, 100k pple many be bidding for ie. 95k COE released.

Wouldn't the AD need to fight for these limited certs?

 

Then next year same thing happened, 100k scrapped, then 95k released,

We may have 100k + 5k pple from this year bidding for 95k COE, Wouldn't that pushed up the COE further?

 

Only LTA be able to tell us if the COE will goes up or down by the percentage points they are keeping aside for the COE drought in 2019.

 

Those 100k people paid $15k only for their COEs. You expect 100% of them (which is going to be the bulk of the new buyers) to pay $70k for their new COEs with 50% down payment? This logic in my view is at best supported if salary increases a lot. When everyone is buying, COE price will settle at the mass market price (lower). When only a few can buy, COE will settle at a premium price. If supply is 100k and COE price is still at $70k, it is probably out of whack with the average salary profile in Singapore. Very unlikely to happen.

Edited August 22, 2014 by Lincoln

[Duckduck]

  On 8/22/2014 at 1:52 AM, Lincoln said:

 

Those 100k people paid $15k only for their COEs. You expect 100% of them (which is going to be the bulk of the new buyers) to pay $70k for their new COEs with 50% down payment? This logic in my view is at best supported if salary increases a lot. When everyone is buying, COE price will settle at the mass market price (lower). When only a few can buy, COE will settle at a premium price. If supply is 100k and COE price is still at $70k, it is probably out of whack with the average salary profile in Singapore. Very unlikely to happen.

 

 

household income has almost doubled since 2004 from $5000+ to $9000+, so this also affects COE price.

 

if u inflation adjust 2004 $20000 COE to now, its abt $26000. add in abt 1M population increase since 2004 is another factor

 

Edited August 22, 2014 by Duckduck

[Lincoln]

  On 8/22/2014 at 2:00 AM, Duckduck said:

 

 

household income has almost doubled since 2004 from $5000+ to $9000+, so this also affects COE price.

 

if u inflation adjust 2004 $20000 COE to now, its abt $26000. add in abt 1M population increase since 2004 is another factor

 

 

Yes. These are important factors and I agree that it probably means COE price on average should be higher now that in the past in general. But it does not explain why COE is now $70k. The most important factor for the higher COE price now is perhaps the smaller supply of COE. In my opinion, this is the most important factor causing the current spike.

 

To simply assume this current spike is the new norm (regardless of additional supply in the future) is simply ignoring the economics of how much on average, people can afford to spend on car. COE price will be average price when supply is average. COE price is at a premium when supply is low. COE price will be lower than the average price when supply is abundant. Unless LTA fixed this problem, there is actually a good time to buy a car (i.e. when COE supply is the highest).

Edited August 22, 2014 by Lincoln

[Dinobros]

duck: where did u see the stat of household income increasing from 5k to 9k?

 

 

  On 8/22/2014 at 2:00 AM, Duckduck said:

 

 

household income has almost doubled since 2004 from $5000+ to $9000+, so this also affects COE price.

 

if u inflation adjust 2004 $20000 COE to now, its abt $26000. add in abt 1M population increase since 2004 is another factor

 

[Duckduck]

  On 8/22/2014 at 2:32 AM, Dinobros said:

duck: where did u see the stat of household income increasing from 5k to 9k?

 

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/Publications/population.html#household_income_and_expenditure