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July 2014 COE Biding


Passim
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Erm more supply also more demand what.

Say 10%-20% of the drivers won't want to continue out of the 100k drivers. Most of the others will still continue right.

 

Unfortunately i can't wait that long.

 

More supply does not equal more demand. Demand- yes but not not real demand. Real demand = people with cash for downpayment and that is determine by the price.think will soften but dun think alot cos Sg got lots of cash rich people.

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(edited)

more like "Salesman's trick". the informed buyers shld b aware that we are matching towards tons of COE to b available...

 

2ldhh7d.png

 

From 3 to 8 years, there is a pattern of COE drop from 31 Dec to 30 Jun. But for the 8 to 10 years, there is an increase in COE. Does this mean that more people are buying 2-3 years to ride into 2016 & 2017 ? If so will the COE supply be more than demand by then ?

Edited by Powxus
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more like "Salesman's trick". the informed buyers shld b aware that we are matching towards tons of COE to b available...

 

2ldhh7d.png

to put to perspective, compared to the COE quota of 1315 for cars (Cat A+B+E) per bidding exercise for the coming Aug-Oct:

a) there shall b 50% more COE quota for cars by mid 2015! ie. 1315 vs 1984. 1984=((47611/12/2)-1315)/1315

b) there shall b 230% more COE quota for cars by mid 2016 n maintain thereabt for 3 more yrs!! ie. 1315 vs 3078. 3078=((105447/12/2)-1315)/1315

note: this is jz a quick computation for quick illustration with lots of assumptions.

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to put to perspective, compared to the COE quota of 1315 for cars (Cat A+B+E) per bidding exercise for the coming Aug-Oct:

a) there shall b 50% more COE quota for cars by mid 2015! ie. 1315 vs 1984. 1984=((47611/12/2)-1315)/1315

b) there shall b 230% more COE quota for cars by mid 2016 n maintain thereabt for 3 more yrs!! ie. 1315 vs 3078. 3078=((105447/12/2)-1315)/1315

note: this is jz a quick computation for quick illustration with lots of assumptions.

you have to remember that in 2015 or 2016, more cars registered in 2010 and 2011 with high coe (50k and above) will also be exported as the coe price drops

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Lai liao, last bidding session. Everyone (AD) held back during the last bidding session of the previous quarter, in anticipation of the increase. This led to a drop of $10K in COE, 154 big trumpet. Buyers rushed in and COE went back up by $3K, and prices held somewhat since. Will AD be holding back to let history repeat itself or let it go? Do keep in mind AD have at least 1 -2 mth of backlog sold with $63K COE. If they let COE drop to $58K, that is another $5K in the pockets.

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you have to remember that in 2015 or 2016, more cars registered in 2010 and 2011 with high coe (50k and above) will also be exported as the coe price drops

 

bingo.. if the COE drops, that will happen, if COE refused to drop more, probably half will choose to extend COE for another 5 years, then we see only 50% de-registered?

 

it's a theory...

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Raymond tang say car prices will not drop much

 

There you have it. SVTA employed this clown to predict COE prices?

How come he never ever said a word about complaints against used car dealers?

He got vested interest?

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Doomsday lai liao, last bid for the Q, next round more Cat A & B. 154th has been quiet for the last 2 weeks, did not stir up the kancheong spiders. Raymond says prices will not drop. Raymond says now is the best time to buy your car.

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(edited)

 

 

After analyzing 5 pages of expert opinions, the conclusion is go down but by not much.

Salesman's tip: With fewer COE next quarter, now is the best time to buy.

 

If I am writing a sales handbook for the AD, .....

 

What to say to customers who asked whether now is the time to buy.

 

1. Always say YES.

2. Why?

3. When COE quota goes down, COE price will go up. Don't wait, buy now!

4. When COE quota goes up, COE price will drop. Don't wait, buy now!

5. When COE quota remains stable, COE price will be stable. Don't wait, buy now!

6. Remember, don't reveal all 3 scenarios to the customer.

7. If the customer catches you on the above, go 1 level up. Say the formula for deciding COE quota is unknown, and could be subjected to changes at the last minute. Don't wait, buy now!

Edited by Quirky
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my truck up lori already

now i take bus take mrt

come to work only $1.28 [crazy]

knn, my one week diesel already at least $80 [crazy]

take bus take mrt really can save alot of marnie [grin]

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Supersonic

my truck up lori already

now i take bus take mrt

come to work only $1.28 [crazy]

knn, my one week diesel already at least $80 [crazy]

take bus take mrt really can save alot of marnie [grin]

U no buy leotard n bayiseekal? Lagi cheap. Some more can jio L-lesen drivers......

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(edited)

 

bingo.. if the COE drops, that will happen, if COE refused to drop more, probably half will choose to extend COE for another 5 years, then we see only 50% de-registered?

 

it's a theory...

If COE remains at $60k, will folks with an expiring COE choose to pay $30k to renew for 5 years in addition to forgoing PARF rebate (easily $5k to $15k caah rebate for non premium brands & $20k & above for premium brands)?

 

In short, if one can afford to down $40k cash, will one choose to

1. Extend 5yrs COE on a 10yr old car?

2. Make a 40% downpayment on a brand new car?

3. Pay cash to buy a 7-8yr car (rem, there will still be PARF rebate at EOL) to wait for 2016/17?

Edited by Notsogoodman
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my truck up lori already

now i take bus take mrt

come to work only $1.28 [crazy]

knn, my one week diesel already at least $80 [crazy]

take bus take mrt really can save alot of marnie [grin]

 

Agreed :)

 

But, I just hope that there will be no train breakdown, or the best I can hope is lesser and shorter train breakdown; else, boss will not be happy if I am late for work...

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U no buy leotard n bayiseekal? Lagi cheap. Some more can jio L-lesen drivers......

 

too sexpensive liao lah

take mrt in the morning jit kor only

bery cheap [grin]

 

Agreed :)

 

But, I just hope that there will be no train breakdown, or the best I can hope is lesser and shorter train breakdown; else, boss will not be happy if I am late for work...

 

 

do far so good leh

but inside my bag, i prepare for the worse

got high power miner headlight from taobao $15 only [grin]

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Turbocharged
(edited)

No interest in this round?

 

 

A CAR UP TO 1600CC & 97KW 1 509 280

B CAR ABOVE 1600CC OR 97KW 1 498 91

C GOODS VEHICLE & BUS 1 391 355

D MOTORCYCLE 1 347 212

E OPEN 1 319 43

spacer.gif

Edited by Akula
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(edited)

No interest in this round?

 

 

A CAR UP TO 1600CC & 97KW 1 509 280

B CAR ABOVE 1600CC OR 97KW 1 498 91

C GOODS VEHICLE & BUS 1 391 355

D MOTORCYCLE 1 347 212

E OPEN 1 319 43

spacer.gif

too soon now... wait for the last 1 hour...

 

especially once it crossed the quota...

Edited by Hybridcar
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Turbocharged
(edited)

CAT C moved....

 

 

A CAR UP TO 1600CC & 97KW 1 509 366

B CAR ABOVE 1600CC OR 97KW 1 498 92

C GOODS VEHICLE & BUS 41,999 391 444

D MOTORCYCLE 1 347 229

E OPEN 1 319 43

spacer.gif

Edited by Akula
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