Rupiah/Rupee at risk, SG/HK risk property bubble

[Goldbug]

Here so many people say interest rate will go up mah.... later up 24 percent like credit card interest how

Average citizen like myself , might need to sell backside to pay back

 

last time got this fed chief call paul volcker...

he set rates at 20% in 1979...

mai siao siao

[Staff69]

Wah.....then better dont buy...just rent a place would do...

 

Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question

 

 

[Duckduck]

Wah.....then better dont buy...just rent a place would do...

 

Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question

 

u dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.

 

1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.

 

again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.

[Staff69]

But but. I no expert mah...how to buy low . Sell high.

 

If I clever. Then I wont need pappy help to buy bto....

 

Talking about others. You see 7k per month can buy 3 small condo.

 

Hmmmm....maybe he follow sla director footsteps. ..he also can drive lambo. Merc and own so many properties

 

 

Hai 只能怪我没本事

[Ruzmidah]

Maybe its time to go back to basics.

 

ie, buy what u need and not anything more.

People buy 10+ properties and 10+ cars....

No wonder COE and Property price so high....

 

Just my view...

[Duckduck]

Hai 只能怪我没本事

 

Its a learning process as much as luck. Patience is impt

[Staff69]

Allow me to give my point

 

There is no crash. Just that pappy created policies that clamp down on speculation

 

But lucky only slow down because of their policies but no crash

 

You see the prices whether it would rise or fall, once they cancel all cm

 

But just ignore me.. just coffee shop talk, talk only

 

even crash also no money for 40% deposit

Edited August 31, 2013 by Staff69

[Thaiyotakamli]

hey bro u changed your car ah? What happened to your Rx?

Nth happened to my rx, is backside itchy haha

[Thaiyotakamli]

Bro, my Indonesian friends all wanna expand their business to Singapore market liao haha!

 

But seriously, earn SGD better lah. More stable.

 

You know Fu Lu Shou downstairs food court got one Chinese Indonesian guy selling nasi padang... Open for quite long liao, think his business is quite good. Maybe you can try lah!

I know that guy, he own the whole coffee shop, wife prc.

 

Earn sgd better but no interest rate for FD, AUD better actually

[Mllcg]

Errr I don't understand. People over leveraged its their problem.

 

Don't be so concerned about them la.

 

ya. i rather property crash than currency crash

[Anshng]

Nth happened to my rx, is backside itchy haha

 

Haha but now is not a good time to change car right as dealers not taking in at good price and still selling car at old price prior to the curbs on loan

[Thaiyotakamli]

Haha but now is not a good time to change car right as dealers not taking in at good price and still selling car at old price prior to the curbs on loan

Yes but wait for market stabilize my backside already super itchy by that time

Anyway car dep was around 30k for a year and 3 months

[Ngck]

No worries if they put high dp. I bought my property in last historic high...2007

 

 

indeed but not all ppl are like you... i see alot couple showhand naked one...

 

 

[Enye]

if you think banks would not do margin calls this time around

 

maybe this would change your mind?

 

 

 

Bank lending breaches psychological barrier

 

Loans-to-deposits ratio crosses 100% mark despite slower lending; analysts preach prudence as leverage concerns grow

 

Singapore

 

THE banking sector's loans-to-deposits ratio crossed 100 for the first time since the Asian financial crisis, providing evidence that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS's) recent moves to curb excessive lending were timely, say economists.

 

Bank lending in July continued to slow from a year ago for a third consecutive month, dragged down by slower growth in consumer loans. According to preliminary figures released by the MAS yesterday, domestic banking unit (DBU) loans rose 17.6 per cent to $539 billion in July year-on-year, down slightly from June's 17.7 per cent growth.

 

But what caught the industry's eye was the fact that the sector's loans-to-deposits ratio breached the 100 per cent threshold - marking the first time since September 1995 that this has occurred.

 

A ratio beyond 100 per cent means that banks are now lending more than they are taking in.

 

"I think it's a sign for everyone to be more prudent, because we haven't really seen such a quick rise in loans-to-deposits ratio for many years," said UOB economist Francis Tan, who noted that, on average, the city-state's loans-to-deposits ratio typically hovers around 88.3 per cent.

 

"The fact that it's getting higher means there is more leverage in the system, so in the event of a crisis - which is predominantly driven by external issues - people may be overstretched in repaying the instalments they owe," said Mr Tan, adding that the 100 per cent threshold acts as a "psychological benchmark".

 

Over the month, total bank loans rose 1.2 per cent at the end of July, faster than June's 0.7 per cent growth.

 

Business loans grew 1.6 per cent over the month to $321.1 billion, rising from the 0.7 per cent growth in June.

 

But even though loans to businesses accelerated slightly year-on-year - rising 20.8 per cent in July from 20.4 per cent in June - the increase was not enough to offset a slower growth in consumer loans.

 

Compared to a year ago, growth in loans to consumers slowed to 13.2 per cent and reached $217.9 billion, moderating from June's 13.8 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, consumer loans grew at 0.7 per cent in July, as they did in June.

 

Economists attribute the slowdown in year-on-year consumer lending to recent policy measures to cool the exuberant car and property markets, as well as new loan curbs that encourage financial prudence.

 

Housing and bridging loans - the largest consumer loans segment making up 74 per cent of the basket - continued to grow at a slower pace of 14.1 per cent in July, down from 14.5 per cent in June. In month-on-month terms, total housing loans were just 0.8 per cent higher.

 

Said DBS economist Irvin Seah: "We're no longer seeing total loans growth of 20-plus per cent, and it's largely because of the cooling measures introduced by the government - particularly the most recent TDSR (total debt servicing ratio) measure.

 

"I think that will continue to weigh down the consumer loan growth number, and for good reason," said Mr Seah.

 

"We have to be careful about consumer leverage, which is already at a historical high, and probably one of the highest in the region. It's an area of concern, and another reason for why the introduction of (the) TDSR (was) the right way to go," added Mr Seah.

 

Meanwhile, car loans shrank for an eighth straight month, falling 7.4 per cent from a year ago. Lending for cars was 2 per cent thinner in July compared to June.

 

Economists agreed that dampened demand for cars continues to feed into the decline in car loans, due to MAS vehicle loan curbs and high certificate of entitlement (COE) premiums.

 

Despite July's slightly stronger year-on-year showing in business lending, both Mr Tan and Mr Seah believe this will moderate in the months ahead.

 

"Quite a large chunk of Singapore's trade is intra-regional, so if Asia grows at a slower pace, that will slow business loans down," said Mr Seah.

 

When asked if overall bank lending numbers were still healthy - since coming off the 20-plus per cent growth rates seen in late 2011 and early 2012 - Mr Seah of DBS said: "I think from now on we'll need to look at loans growth in a totally different perspective. We shouldn't be focusing on the headline number anymore; we should distinguish between corporate and consumer loans.

 

"An improvement in corporate loans implies better investments, which is positive. But if we see an uptick in consumer loans, that means rising consumer leverage, and that will mean a negative thing."

 

[Felipe]

2007 is historic high? not 2012?

 

Before the current historic high, 2007 was last historic high...semantics

[Felipe]

Wah.....then better dont buy...just rent a place would do...

 

Hai......to buy or not to buy...that is the interest rate question

Buy hdb, bto best

[Felipe]

u dont need to ask that question if u stick to a simple plan: buy low sell high.

 

1yr ago, u almost cldnt find a single bearish prop view on this forum, eg. i used to post abt bearish prop views but got attacked for just sharing my opinions, now seems like more n more bearish views, so 12mths is all it took to change views.

 

again i say dat property is commodity n is subject to external forces on top of basic supply demand.

I adopt a different view. Buy based on fundamentals...good location, potential upside, n most important high dp

[Duckduck]

THE banking sector's loans-to-deposits ratio crossed 100 for the first time since the Asian financial crisis, providing evidence that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS's) recent moves to curb excessive lending were timely, say economists.

 

hahaha i tot so many proclaim that many here r cash rich n no need take loan? D truth has been revealed n it shows d huge leverage in our system now...

 

Since 2009, its as if most forgot d tragedies of previous asian crisis. I witnessed a friend's family, who before d crisis dined at atas restaurants, had antique cars, had boats n lots of biz, n after d crash lost almost everything, becoz of bank loan default n as result asset liquidation...