COE refinements to be finalised in next few weeks

[Ocar]

Too many discussion on this topic. My view is both Cat A & B COE will go up anyway due to simple demand and supply theory. This will not be changed due to the new COE policy.

[Acemundo]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:47 AM, Lalaisgongon said:

we may never know what may happen?

 

Hence by using BHP , there less variable factors to be involved. Correct, the Euro dropped before.... and no one can do anything about it. Give me the benefit of the doubt, say IF (Big IF) euro crashes, and YEN spikes like crazy. then how? Altis go cat b and 1 series go Cat A. Then how?

 

But BHP drop can do something about it, government can simply say, ok, for 3 series, i will take the average of all the 3 series you have in the world, or say 316 in the world, and use that average. so they cannot just bring in a 316 that is lower just for sg. They will see overseas, what is the BHP of the 316?

 

can't be la......altis become more expensive than a class due to currency movement?

 

Yen is already at its high and euros at it low. and what is the omv gap between the 2 now? altis at 15190 and mercs a class at 28000? anyone with some reasonable understanding of currency movement will never expect the gap between the 2 to be bridged.

Edited September 11, 2013 by Acemundo

[Yeshe]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:34 AM, Davidtch said:

The problem we faced is lack of MACRO view in Ministry of Transports/LTA. Fix 1 problem but create another 1.

 

they only have 1 view, tat is $$$$$ [laugh]

[Lalaisgongon]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:50 AM, Ocar said:

Too many discussion on this topic. My view is both Cat A & B COE will go up anyway due to simple demand and supply theory. This will not be changed due to the new COE policy.

 

 

By virtue of less demand in Cat A, it is possible that Cat A may soften. cause now so lil cars in cat A, people may go, forget an continue driving their old conti car.

 

i think the people who lose out the most, is those who actually can buy c class/ 3 series. now all cannot buy. have to buy smaller car or less "lux" car.

those buying s class/ 7 series. still no change.

[Lalaisgongon]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:51 AM, Acemundo said:

can't be la......altis become more expensive than 1 series due to currency movement?

 

Yen is already at its high and euros at it low. and what is the omv gap between the 2 now? altis at 15190 and mercs a class at 28000? anyone with some reasonable understanding of currency movement will never expect the gap between the 2 to be bridged.

 

 

I understand how it cant NEVER be happen. But like i said theres a probability here right? like how before lehman came crashing, they also said, lehman cant crash la.

 

what i am saying is that comparing the 2 methods. OMV and BHP

 

BHP has a lot less variables and even if there are some variables, its easy to control and predict then OMV.

 

 

[Extremesour]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:27 AM, Davidtch said:

To the govt, car is a luxury. U have bus & MRT. If u think no good, why not everyday write in to complain until something is done?

 

The OMV of most B&B cars are before SGD30k.

Why would cars then be a luxury item?

You can walk down Orchard road and buy a bag that cost more than this.

Govt is trying to convince you that it's a luxury because it's a limited resource(COE) that they can provide before the city goes into gridlock.

So they need to allocate this limited resources using COE system which drives up the car ownership cost.

Not forgetting the additional taxes that are added to discourage car ownership.

In this context I don't see why we cannot impose additional taxes for FTs to own cars.

After all it's not a necessity and we should let them enjoy our world class public transport.

However end of the day it's still open market.

If FTs are able to pay more and determine to drive they still have that choice.

Nobody is stopping them as long as they pay.

Bags? - they can go buy as many as they want.

[Acemundo]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:54 AM, Lalaisgongon said:

I understand how it cant NEVER be happen. But like i said theres a probability here right? like how before lehman came crashing, they also said, lehman cant crash la.

 

what i am saying is that comparing the 2 methods. OMV and BHP

 

BHP has a lot less variables and even if there are some variables, its easy to control and predict then OMV.

 

currency is affected by world factors. hard to control but also hard to manipulate. hence some people that are stickler for predictability don't like to use currency exchange as one of the variable factor in their buy/sell decision. yet, others who can see the big picture can accept the limited bands of movement of currencies as this is a fact of life and business that we have to work with the dynamics.

 

BHP on the other hand is so easy to manipulate, I don't see any semblance of control there. predictability is merely based on historical figures of published bhp. but even within the same model of a car, there are various variants that dealers should not be preclude from bringing in. after they bring in and register the car, anyone can go tune there car just by plugging in the computer to talk to the ecu.

[Yuan]

  On 9/10/2013 at 2:43 PM, Vtim said:

you see me too up liao, I no elite lah, all the old MCF members will know me

 

Hello, long time no see.

[Knoobie]

  On 9/10/2013 at 3:02 PM, Fesrts said:

Almost 2 weeks ago, I posted these thoughts. Now that LTA announced their "plan", I see a lot of feedback here about the tweaks arn't going to help, categorization is making it more difficult to understand, process of buying car is so complex, the question of need vs want remain, that everyone is laughing at us, etc....

 

I thought I re-post my thoughts again and amended a little. I am hoping to gather more inputs that could strengthen the concept/idea (amended slightly from the Aug 31st post) below. And maybe take it up with LTA with a more detail proposal of sorts.

 

 

 

The basis of proposing the above is that LTA should not be in a business of making money out of the very people they seek to serve. Ideas such as flexible setting of ERP based on average car speed on a particular road use is good as it enforce the idea that the limited infrastructure requires those who uses it, is to pay. It is transparent and clear. But the current COE or the Feb 2014 COE requirements is neither helpful and will only forces the prices up indiscriminately.

 

Thanks for reading this. Hopefully you have further recommendation to enforce this concept/idea. Or if your prefer, PM me instead. And maybe, just maybe, this can be taken up to the next level (or not).

 

Cheers.

please.. suggest some more.. we will all suffer more...

[Knoobie]

  On 9/11/2013 at 12:09 AM, Myxilplix said:

I long ago brought up COE balloting system machiam HDB liao, with fixed prices somemore. People here disagree

 

To those still talking about the remaining contis in CAT A, please lah. How many people actually buy those small hatchback contis or 1.0/1.2 litre contis? How many Audi A1s and WV polos you see on the road?

 

I know there are a lot of badge whores in the Singapore car-buying public, but for the same reason they won't be buying compact hatchbacks even if the badge on the front is sibeh satki. Must be minimum C-Class/3-Series size then got face.

 

Or are you trying to say that every month after February all the 200-300+ CAT A allocations are going to be snapped up by people buying Audi A1s, 1.2 litre VWs and Mini Ones??

you don't see them now because there are literally better conti cars in CAT A now.

Once new ruling kicks in, these will hence become the best in CAT A and definitely people will go for it.

[Kar_lover]

  On 9/11/2013 at 1:23 AM, Davidtch said:

That means i can buy Golf TSI 122hp with Cat A COE. After that, remap to 140hp. Isn't that a loophole then?

 

That's because you still think that power is the objective of this new rule. It is not. Already explained before, LTA use power as a means to filter out "luxury" cars (OMV > $20k). Because statistically, most cars with power above 130hp have OMV above $20k. Some of the exceptions are Hyundai Veloster (power more than 130bhp but OMV below $20k) and as you pointed out the base golf 1.4 tsi (power below 130hp but OMV > $20k).

 

So yes, you can go and remap if you want (warranty void?). This is NOT the objective of this new rule. The objective is that ALL the other 1.6L cars such as scirocco, jetta sport, passat 1.4, BMW 116i, 118i, 316i, Audi A1, Merc C180, CLA200, CItreon DS4, DS5, Peugeot 308, 508 and RCZ and a few volvo models, etc which a have OMV > $20k will now NO LONGER be in Cat A. THIS is their underlying objective - using POWER to as a means to separate cars with OMV above $20k from those below. So there is no loophole. As far as LTA is concerned, their main objective has largely been met (except for Golf 1.4 TSI).

 

So i forsee golf 1.4 tsi sales will temporarily drop until the new rule kicks in where Cat A COE may drop and then it will be the most "worthwhile" car to buy as able to "beat the system", i.e. buying a car with OMV > $20k using Cat A COE. So veloster sales will definitely suffer after new rule kicks in but may have increased sales now as it will be promoted to Cat B value next year (depending how much consumer choices are dictated by such things).

[Lalaisgongon]

  On 9/11/2013 at 2:00 AM, Acemundo said:

currency is affected by world factors. hard to control but also hard to manipulate. hence some people that are stickler for predictability don't like to use currency exchange as one of the variable factor in their buy/sell decision. yet, others who can see the big picture can accept the limited bands of movement of currencies as this is a fact of life and business that we have to work with the dynamics.

 

BHP on the other hand is so easy to manipulate, I don't see any semblance of control there. predictability is merely based on historical figures of published bhp. but even within the same model of a car, there are various variants that dealers should not be preclude from bringing in. after they bring in and register the car, anyone can go tune there car just by plugging in the computer to talk to the ecu.

 

That might be true of currency. hence the goverment has no control. it cant have fixed figure to find out what the rates will be.

 

BHP is a problem alr. if what you said was true. instead of buying cars in cat b 1.6 and above currently. people will buy cat a and push it up. if that is the case, why isnt people doing so in the system.

 

as mention mutiple times, the idea of bhp is not to limit bhp but it is a factor the goverment see as a good gauge and with alot less volatility.

 

A good example is if we use omv, what happen to cars with 21 or 19 k omv. it is too dangerous. so every 6 mths or one year, these car change CAT?

 

and then question will come in why 20k? why no 21? not 22.

 

But using 130 bhp, is cause they measure the correlation of luxury brands or cars above 20k omv. has mostly 130 and above. hence they said below 130 bhp will yield the most number of cars below 20 omv at the same time, pushing those above 20k into cat B

 

if you want to see it this way, the govertment is looking at OMV, but using bhp to control it.

 

 

Maybe what they mean by constant review is, that if less that 90 percent of the car below 20k omv is below 130 bhp.

 

and in the future, 90 percent of cars below 20k omv is 120bhp. maybe they bring it down

 

the down side is really just giving people slower cars.

Edited September 11, 2013 by Lalaisgongon

[Lalaisgongon]

  On 9/11/2013 at 2:34 AM, Kar_lover said:

That's because you still think that power is the objective of this new rule. It is not. Already explained before, LTA use power as a means to filter out "luxury" cars (OMV > $20k). Because statistically, most cars with power above 130hp have OMV above $20k. Some of the exceptions are Hyundai Veloster (power more than 130bhp but OMV below $20k) and as you pointed out the base golf 1.4 tsi (power below 130hp but OMV > $20k).

 

So yes, you can go and remap if you want (warranty void?). This is NOT the objective of this new rule. The objective is that ALL the other 1.6L cars such as scirocco, jetta sport, passat 1.4, BMW 116i, 118i, 316i, Audi A1, Merc C180, CLA200, CItreon DS4, DS5, Peugeot 308, 508 and RCZ and a few volvo models, etc which a have OMV > $20k will now NO LONGER be in Cat A. THIS is their underlying objective - using POWER to as a means to separate cars with OMV above $20k from those below. So there is no loophole. As far as LTA is concerned, their main objective has largely been met (except for Golf 1.4 TSI).

 

So i forsee golf 1.4 tsi sales will temporarily drop until the new rule kicks in where Cat A COE may drop and then it will be the most "worthwhile" car to buy as able to "beat the system", i.e. buying a car with OMV > $20k using Cat A COE. So veloster sales will definitely suffer after new rule kicks in but may have increased sales now as it will be promoted to Cat B value next year (depending how much consumer choices are dictated by such things).

 

 

Good summary i might add.

 

Swift sport also got the shorter end of the stick btw think thats more impactful than the veloster

 

 

But one thing the goverment might have lacked out i sthat what if all the cars you mention above bring in Diesel version?

 

For example volvo s60/s80/v60 still have their d2 engine.(115bhp)

 

One might think that those buying such "lux" cars might not want such bad performance, which might or might not be true.

Edited September 11, 2013 by Lalaisgongon

[Joseph22]

  On 9/11/2013 at 2:40 AM, Lalaisgongon said:

Good summary i might add.

 

Swift sport also got the shorter end of the stick btw think thats more impactful than the veloster

 

 

But one thing the goverment might have lacked out i sthat what if all the cars you mention above bring in Diesel version?

 

For example volvo s60/s80/v60 still have their d2 engine.(115bhp)

 

One might think that those buying such "lux" cars might not want such bad performance, which might or might not be true.

Not valid as those car are have more than 1600cc

[Yuan]

  On 9/10/2013 at 2:48 PM, Vtim said:

no more liao, trade-in for a '08 Stream last July because need to do major servicing (already 210k km liao) in order to last till scrap in Jul 2014.

 

Not worth the $3k++ for repairs

 

Stream is a good car.

 

Maybe you can consider changing car.

[Lalaisgongon]

  On 9/11/2013 at 2:44 AM, Joseph22 said:

Not valid as those car are have more than 1600cc

 

erm i think the d2 engine is 1596 cc with 115 BHp.

 

there is also c180 cdi ( not here yet) but it has 114 bhp too.

 

http://www.sgcarmart.com/news/article.php?AID=7198

 

heres the link

Edited September 11, 2013 by Lalaisgongon

[Princey_anne]

  On 9/11/2013 at 2:44 AM, Joseph22 said:

Not valid as those car are have more than 1600cc

They are below 1.6 Volvo, but again after buying you can upgrade the bhp through Volvo polestar.

[Acemundo]

the problem is not with the omv system. it is the problem with the people wanting to fix everything in an environment that in reality is really dynamic. those that cannot live with reasonable changes wants a system that makes things easy for them.

 

so they choose something that seems fixed to them on paper, yet at the ground level is so open to tweaks and manipulations.

 

not suprising these are coming from people that are heavy on academic qualification but light on working at the ground level.