UBS flags rapid rise of S'pore household debt

[Jamesc]

pretty amateur piece of work. To gauge the financial well being of of the household, the important thing to look at is net worth, aka asset minus debt. Yes, Singapore household debt has been increased a lot to S$200 billion. But, Singapore household has an asset of 1.4 trillion. Debt to asset ratio has been pretty stable over past 10 years at 16%.

I couldn't agree more.

 

I hope that banker doesn't invest his own money

 

he will be broke. He is better offer investing other

 

peoples money.

 

[Duckduck]

ayah u just have to rem wad happened in 1998 & 2008, that time so many fire sale i didnt even have enuff time to view all d places. Its gonna happen again lah, so put aside cash for such situations which nobody can tell when happens. If its not property, its gona be cars or stocks etc.

[Enye]

even when the house price drop by half, debt to asset ratio will be 20%.

 

ok no problem then

 

anyway only red flag and not white flag raised

 

please borrow somemore

 

[Solar]

ayah u just have to rem wad happened in 1998 & 2008, that time so many fire sale i didnt even have enuff time to view all d places. Its gonna happen again lah, so put aside cash for such situations which nobody can tell when happens. If its not property, its gona be cars or stocks etc.

 

maybe we can get prepared now? aim some locations and kiv

[Duckduck]

ok no problem then

 

anyway only red flag and not white flag raised

 

please borrow somemore

 

 

 

Kita ada manyak duit duit lah, relak lol

[Jamesc]

There will be no crash or fire sale in Singapore.

 

If COE crash tomorrow, I will buy a new.

 

If property crash tomorrow, I will buy a bigger place.

 

If stock crash tomorrow, I will load up.

 

I have been hearing about the crash is coming for the last 3 years

 

and everyone that said it is wrong. Off course no one has come here

 

and admitted it. But as they say Success has many fathers but

 

failure is illegitimate.

 

[Duckduck]

There will be no crash or fire sale in Singapore.

 

If COE crash tomorrow, I will buy a new.

 

If property crash tomorrow, I will buy a bigger place.

 

If stock crash tomorrow, I will load up.

 

I have been hearing about the crash is coming for the last 3 years

 

and everyone that said it is wrong. Off course no one has come here

 

and admitted it. But as they say Success has many fathers but

 

failure is illegitimate.

 

 

if i thought like u, i wouldnt have been able to get a property in april2009 at dam "cheap" price.

 

r u saying SG will escape d next global recessions, or u saying there will never b a global recession? u a fortune teller ah?

[Enye]

There will be no crash or fire sale in Singapore.

 

If COE crash tomorrow, I will buy a new.

 

If property crash tomorrow, I will buy a bigger place.

 

If stock crash tomorrow, I will load up.

 

I have been hearing about the crash is coming for the last 3 years

 

and everyone that said it is wrong. Off course no one has come here

 

and admitted it. But as they say Success has many fathers but

 

failure is illegitimate.

 

 

i suspect you must be one of the elite in civil service or MIW

 

golden rice bowl backed with some powerful connections

 

[Staff69]

if i thought like u, i wouldnt have been able to get a property in april2009 at dam "cheap" price.

 

 

 

wah rich man spotted

 

[Jamesc]

if i thought like u, i wouldnt have been able to get a property in april2009 at dam "cheap" price.

 

r u saying SG will escape d next global recessions, or u saying there will never b a global recession? u a fortune teller ah?

I am saying the rise is house prices in Sg is not due to speculation

 

but a genuine increase in demand due to the rise in the population.

 

People coming here need a place to stay whether they rent or buy.

 

A crash is caused when people buy things they do not need and have no use

 

in the hope of selling it to another fool at a higher price.

 

The rise in the price of homes and cars is a real demand and

 

a crash is only possible in a speculative environment.

 

The only thing that can pull the prices of home down

 

is stop the inflow of people or create an oversupply.

 

Edited June 27, 2013 by Jamesc

[Duckduck]

I am saying the rise is house prices in Sg is not due to speculation

 

but a genuine increase in demand due to the rise in the population.

 

People coming here need a play to stay whether they rent or buy.

 

A crash is cause when people buy things they do not need and have no use

 

in the hope of selling it to another fool at a higher price.

 

The rise in price of home and cars is a real demand and

 

a crash is only possible in a speculative environment.

 

The only thing that can pull the prices of home down

 

is stop the inflow or people or create an oversupply.

 

 

so reach 6.9m how?

 

[Jamesc]

i suspect you must be one of the elite in civil service or MIW

 

golden rice bowl backed with some powerful connections

 

Only the last part maybe true,

 

the powerful connections bit.

 

 

I am a customer of a local bank

 

that claims to be the world's strongest bank.

 

Me and hundreds of thousand of other customers.

 

[Throttle2]

pretty amateur piece of work. To gauge the financial well being of of the household, the important thing to look at is net worth, aka asset minus debt. Yes, Singapore household debt has been increased a lot to S$200 billion. But, Singapore household has an asset of 1.4 trillion. Debt to asset ratio has been pretty stable over past 10 years at 16%.

 

I shant comment on the work becos i didnt read it in its completeness but let me share with you something.

 

Loans unless paid off can never become smaller.

Assets unless being traded up will never become bigger.

In a negative situation especially, you think debt and asset values remain the same, moving in one direction hand in hand?

 

 

My not so intelligent brain tells me that the loans with interest rate raises will increase and asset values with lesser demand will move opposite direction.

Not saying that it will crash but i put my money where my mouth is instead of just plain talking.

 

Cheers

 

[Jamesc]

so reach 6.9m how?

By the time we reach 6.9m

 

everything will be so damn expensive

 

that even if price came down 20% - 30%

 

it will have gone up 200% - 300%.

 

Its like an S class now $439,000

 

even if it came down $30,000

 

and you can buy it for $409,000

 

would you buy it and tell everyone

 

you got a bargain?

 

[Duckduck]

I shant comment on the work becos i didnt read it in its completeness but let me share with you something.

 

Loans unless paid off can never become smaller.

Assets unless being traded up will never become bigger.

 

hahah u know y they did QE anot? Coz central bankers know that given enough inflation generated by QE, debt will remain constant but asset will nominally increase, so print enuff $ suddenly gearing reduce alot.

 

The US have got 1 part of QE right, but to get it completely right, they have to stop their debt increase. That is more political than anything.

[ShepherdPie]

I am saying the rise is house prices in Sg is not due to speculation

but a genuine increase in demand due to the rise in the population.

People coming here need a place to stay whether they rent or buy.

A crash is caused when people buy things they do not need and have no use

in the hope of selling it to another fool at a higher price.

The rise in the price of homes and cars is a real demand and

a crash is only possible in a speculative environment.

The only thing that can pull the prices of home down

is stop the inflow of people or create an oversupply.

 

hmmm... i dun defer.. but i believe that most ppl earn enough to stay in hdb only or OCR condo that cost less than 700psf.

The demand for mid or high-end condo may not be there.

The place where i stay.. after TOP for 3 yrs, there are still 10% unsold units. Even though the prices has increase 30%. The current rental income hardly cover the installment of the 1st buyer with the increasing spread, let alone adding in the maintenance and pty tax cost. Even though nearby, there are newer projects asking for higher psf... i suspect the prices to fall at least 20% in the next 2 yrs... when the mkt demand for rental goes down, follow by the demand for purchase. This is my observation of the mkt now.

 

I believed that OCR(leasehold) will stablized at 600-700psf , RCR(freehold) ard 1000psf and CCR (freehold) ard 1400psf...

Edited June 27, 2013 by ShepherdPie

[Enye]

I am saying the rise is house prices in Sg is not due to speculation

 

but a genuine increase in demand due to the rise in the population.

 

People coming here need a place to stay whether they rent or buy.

 

A crash is caused when people buy things they do not need and have no use

 

in the hope of selling it to another fool at a higher price.

 

The rise in the price of homes and cars is a real demand and

 

a crash is only possible in a speculative environment.

 

The only thing that can pull the prices of home down

 

is stop the inflow of people or create an oversupply.

 

 

if the buying now is in anticipation of the 6.9m population target and not for own stay

 

wouldn't that fit your definition of speculation?

 

btw in a recession, population increase may not be forthcoming

 

[Jamesc]

I believed that OCR(leasehold) will stablized at 600-700psf , RCR(freehold) ard 1000psf and CCR (freehold) ard 1400psf...

No one more than me will be happier to see these kind of prices.

 

If I see these kind of prices in future, I will send you a bottle of champagne