COE 2nd bidding April 2013

[Pandaeyes]

First week and third week of the month i.e. starting 6 May and 20 May. Where is COE heading? Probably flat. $55k and $65k band.

 

I think it will shoot up to 65-70k for Cat A given that the rebate level has risen. Nowadays it seems quite predictable given the rebates of the major car makes.

 

This is on the assumption that new orders over the next 2 weeks and this batch of new owners are willing to put down 40-50% dp.

 

If not it might be those ADs who have backlog orders of 50-55k rebate level to come into the scene. There r about 600 of them waiting in the line based on current COE bidding exercise. These are those who managed to take the finance companies loan. It will take 2 more rounds before this batch to clear. Of course this is notwithstanding that the major car brands may come in last minute to play punk n bid more than 60k.

Edited April 25, 2013 by Pandaeyes

[Yixiang1]

As existing car owners, i think it is a good thing that the price do not collapse, but a gradual decline which is healthy, for the following reasons:

 

 

1. If price collapse suddenly, people who bought the $80-90k COE will be worthwhile to de-register, take back their money and come in grab another cheap COE

 

2. Given the age profile of cars now, a lot are due to be 9-10 years old from 2014 onwards, if COE collapse now, then these people may just extend their COE. Then the increase in COE supply expected from next year onwards might not materialise..

 

 

A gradual decline and sometimes stable COE for 1 or 2 bid... is healthy.

 

 

[Matrix0405]

First week and third week of the month i.e. starting 6 May and 20 May. Where is COE heading? Probably flat. $55k and $65k band.

 

 

It is heartening to see many dealers working as a 'team' to tackle the system. For many rounds, it has been attack pt A at 2 pm then pt B at 3 pm and Open attack at 4 pm. And finally speed off in the motorbike in the last 15 min.

 

[Pandaeyes]

As existing car owners, i think it is a good thing that the price do not collapse, but a gradual decline which is healthy, for the following reasons:

 

 

1. If price collapse suddenly, people who bought the $80-90k COE will be worthwhile to de-register, take back their money and come in grab another cheap COE

 

2. Given the age profile of cars now, a lot are due to be 9-10 years old from 2014 onwards, if COE collapse now, then these people may just extend their COE. Then the increase in COE supply expected from next year onwards might not materialise..

 

 

A gradual decline and sometimes stable COE for 1 or 2 bid... is healthy.

 

May I ask a noob question on point number one?

 

Is it based on the assumption that those car owners who bought at high coe have no loan existing or minimal loan outstanding?

 

Wouldn't the value of their existing high coe car drop since coe drops too? Then they wouldn't fetch the desired price?

 

I have seen many comments on this but just couldn't understand the principle behind it.

 

[Angcheek]

May I ask a noob question on point number one?

 

Is it based on the assumption that those car owners who bought at high coe have no loan existing or minimal loan outstanding?

 

Wouldn't the value of their existing high coe car drop since coe drops too? Then they wouldn't fetch the desired price?

 

I have seen many comments on this but just couldn't understand the principle behind it.

 

 

made sense for those bought cheaper OMV cars.

 

If the COE drops more than your car value , it means ur car are worth less then COE value , so whats

 

the point keeping it .

 

 

COE value drops if you sell to dealers. But you can always sell back to LTA whichever earns you more value

Edited April 25, 2013 by Angcheek

[Unpredictable]

As existing car owners, i think it is a good thing that the price do not collapse, but a gradual decline which is healthy, for the following reasons:

 

 

1. If price collapse suddenly, people who bought the $80-90k COE will be worthwhile to de-register, take back their money and come in grab another cheap COE

 

2. Given the age profile of cars now, a lot are due to be 9-10 years old from 2014 onwards, if COE collapse now, then these people may just extend their COE. Then the increase in COE supply expected from next year onwards might not materialise..

 

 

A gradual decline and sometimes stable COE for 1 or 2 bid... is healthy.

 

First point invalid as u scrap ur car from 0-2 years the coe rebate cap at maximun 0.8

No one will scrap high coe in less than 2 years

Sell ur car back to LTA n export car u immediate lost 20-30k profit which earn by the AD

[Wt_know]

then dealer will bring in bone stock entry level conti with no hid/xenon, synthetic leather instead of real leather, no fancy options like comfort access, soft close door, cool lighting, etc

just to stay on the borderline of the stipulated omv ... huat ah for local workshop to retrofit a lot of options ...

 

govt chut pattern ... dealer will also chut pattern one ...

just look at now conti offer leasing to circumvent the 50% downpayment

 

time to change COE Cat by OMV value

Edited April 27, 2013 by Wt_know

[Wt_know]

ban the "mother father gentlemen" dealer from bidding coe ... dealer are crooks

they have conflict of interest in terms of coe .... buyer want low coe ... dealer want high coe (maintain variable profit margin)

 

It is heartening to see many dealers working as a 'team' to tackle the system. For many rounds, it has been attack pt A at 2 pm then pt B at 3 pm and Open attack at 4 pm. And finally speed off in the motorbike in the last 15 min.

 

[Wt_know]

even coe collapse in 2014 ... 2012/2013 $90K coe owner will still trade in (de-register) their car

taking back 8 years x $9K = $72K coe ... if 2014 coe is $35K-$40K ... there is a whopping $35K+ savings

 

As existing car owners, i think it is a good thing that the price do not collapse, but a gradual decline which is healthy, for the following reasons:

 

 

1. If price collapse suddenly, people who bought the $80-90k COE will be worthwhile to de-register, take back their money and come in grab another cheap COE

 

2. Given the age profile of cars now, a lot are due to be 9-10 years old from 2014 onwards, if COE collapse now, then these people may just extend their COE. Then the increase in COE supply expected from next year onwards might not materialise..

 

 

A gradual decline and sometimes stable COE for 1 or 2 bid... is healthy.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Wt_know

[Jp66]

ya lor, the best part is Wearnes even claim that "we can show you the total cost of ownership can be lower than buying"

 

......

govt chut pattern ... dealer will also chut pattern one ...

just look at now conti offer leasing to circumvent the 50% downpayment

 

[Duckduck]

everytime a neighbourhood gets a new mall, the whole area traffic jam like fark... knn man... now at least 7000 used cars will also flood the roads suddenly... wahhahaha

[Civic6228]

If someone bot a 320i with 90k COE, he probably would have to pay about 200k for the car .....Assuming the OMV of the car is 40k.

 

After 2 yrs ..... paper value is

 

8 yrs of COE - 72k ....

75% of OMV - 30k

 

Total ... approx. 102k ... depreciation for 2 years of ownership ..... 200k -102k = 98k / 2 = 49k per year.

 

IMHO, LTA has plugged the loop hole for high paper value and the advantage of scrapping the car early.

[Wt_know]

you are assuming owner sell at paper value. if coe stubbornly remained at $70k-ish

2 years old car still can sell at good price ... dealers heavily manipulate the market price ... no one wants to lose money

 

If someone bot a 320i with 90k COE, he probably would have to pay about 200k for the car .....Assuming the OMV of the car is 40k.

 

After 2 yrs ..... paper value is

 

8 yrs of COE - 72k ....

75% of OMV - 30k

 

Total ... approx. 102k ... depreciation for 2 years of ownership ..... 200k -102k = 98k / 2 = 49k per year.

 

IMHO, LTA has plugged the loop hole for high paper value and the advantage of scrapping the car early.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Wt_know

[Mac_bart]

you are assuming owner sell at paper value. if coe stubbornly remained at $70k-ish

2 years old car still can sell at good price ... dealers heavily manipulate the market price ... no one wants to lose money

 

I think what he was pointing out was what the owner would receive if he were to deregister his car after two years. And this is in the context of what may happen if COE prices were to come down significantly. If that does happen, a two-year-old car would be severely overpriced in comparison to a new one. Who, in his right mind, would want to pay more than paper value for a two-year-old car if he can buy a similar new one for less?

[Wt_know]

that's why dealer is holding coe up ... they cannot afford coe crash

 

I think what he was pointing out was what the owner would receive if he were to deregister his car after two years. And this is in the context of what may happen if COE prices were to come down significantly. If that does happen, a two-year-old car would be severely overpriced in comparison to a new one. Who, in his right mind, would want to pay more than paper value for a two-year-old car if he can buy a similar new one for less?

 

[Unpredictable]

I would say no more backlogs from loophole or b4 mas ruling.

All the AD already show hand.

The next bid onward will see cat A taking open cat

If u notice the recent drive away immediate with coe is because the big player bid the open cat to avoid coe drop.

They does not have order on hands and the actual demand is lesser than supply.

Few more bids you will see the coe crash unless the cash rich people decide to purchase.

Coming july the quota will reduce, maybe coe price still can hold a little bit longer until next year quota kick in.

 

But i guess by then government will release the loan curb to acoid market fall.

 

[Wt_know]

all depends on what coe level that govt feels ... "alright" before making the next move

 

$30K-$40K

$40K-$50K

$50K-$60K

$60K-$70K --> we are here

 

I would say no more backlogs from loophole or b4 mas ruling.

All the AD already show hand.

The next bid onward will see cat A taking open cat

If u notice the recent drive away immediate with coe is because the big player bid the open cat to avoid coe drop.

They does not have order on hands and the actual demand is lesser than supply.

Few more bids you will see the coe crash unless the cash rich people decide to purchase.

Coming july the quota will reduce, maybe coe price still can hold a little bit longer until next year quota kick in.

 

But i guess by then government will release the loan curb to acoid market fall.

Edited April 27, 2013 by Wt_know

[Civic6228]

you are assuming owner sell at paper value. if coe stubbornly remained at $70k-ish

2 years old car still can sell at good price ... dealers heavily manipulate the market price ... no one wants to lose money

 

There are some postings suggesting that owners with high COE ... can scrap their cars early as the paper valus is high with the 90k COE to buy a new car if COE drops to a low level.

 

If COE stays at 70k .... I agree .... no issue.