COE Bidding - 19th DEc 2012

[Deckbuild]

COE is a tap. They decide to turn off the tap now, but the pail already full of water.

 

Pail full referring to SG roads?

 

If referring to COE, then I think the pail is drying up with more ppl want or need the water from the pail...

[Wt_know]

you are damn right ... when you stop at traffic light just look around you will see many drivers are 'foreigner' ie: angmoh, new rich indian, new rich chinese, etc - PR & new citizen

this is not FT bashing comment. it's a fact ... hence the need for car is at least 2x-3x higher than last time

with 3.5M population the coe is x .... with 5.2M population the coe is y = 2.5x

 

What I personally feel that is even if large amount of vehicle get dereg during 2015 onwards and alot of COE goes back into the market, the price will still be high. Just look at Singapore population now, so many are waiting to buy car, even with 1k quota per category also not enough.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Wt_know

[Roh96]

Pail full referring to SG roads?

 

If referring to COE, then I think the pail is drying up with more ppl want or need the water from the pail...

 

Yes pail full refers to sg road. The situation now is ppl are thirst for new water from the tap. They don't want the water in the pail.

[Sosaria]

Yes pail full refers to sg road. The situation now is ppl are thirst for new water from the tap. They don't want the water in the pail.

 

I agree with you that there are actually many many more people out there who will sustain the high demand for COEs thus keeping the price at a high level even in the unlikely event that the COE quota is increased again in future.

 

Let's face it: singapore society is affluent. Not everybody is a tycoon of course, but certainly, many many people here can afford the fine things in life. Luxuries like iPhone, iPad snapped up like hot cakes. Many people even youngsters are brandishing the latest iPhone or 4G handphones. And just a glance through the papers these days reveal many more with expensive hobbies, going on expensive holidays, etc. etc. At the most, squeeze a bit, give up a holiday or two, can still snap up that COE...

[Wt_know]

2014/2015 LTA may decide to do coe clawback ... not all the deregistered coe will be recycled

let's see ... yeah coe allocation screwed up big time !

 

btw, lta also change coe allocation method liao right ... no of coe recycled = no of coe deregistered instead of "projection" - as good as throwing dice

 

even 120k coe allocated ... price may still high ... look at spore population now compare to 2004/2005

 

Fact again .... will COE be 80k to 90k in 2 to 3 years time ?

 

Year COE Quotas COE expire

May 2004 to April 2005 120,538 2014/2015

May 2005 to April 2006 132,581 2015/2016

May 2006 to April 2007 131,127

May 2007 to April 2008 127,021

May 2008 to April 2009 115,949

May 2009 to April 2010 77,207

May 2010 to July 2011 62,383

Aug 2011 to July 2012 44,484

 

in 2 to 3 years, it would be 2014/2015. look at the no. of quotas that were releaed from Y2004 to Y2009 and compared it to Y2010. The quotas in Y2010 is half of that in Y2004. In 2 to 3 years time, even if COE remain at 80k, there are still the affordable cars that left with 2 to 3 years left to drive. However, if COE prices drop to 30k and new car prices are 50k cheaper than what it is today, would anyone buy a 2 to 3 second hand car ?

 

The COE is "screwed" lah .... due to the inbalance of the allocations...

Edited December 20, 2012 by Wt_know

[Darryn]

I also think that LTA will do something about the "boom / bust" cycle that is looming.

 

Come the 2014 - 2016 period, I seriously believe something will be done to keep the COE high enough so that all the current high COE cars aren't deregistered, leading to another famine in a few years time.

 

This sort of cycle is not healthy for the industry or the country.

 

Once all the "compulsory deregistrations" start, a lot of people will drop out of the market, even if the COE does drop back to $40-$50k. To move from a $10k-$20k COE to a $50k COE is a big jump (IMO) and many won't do it.

[Mllcg]

2014/2015 LTA may decide to do coe clawback ... not all the deregistered coe will be recycled

let's see ... yeah coe allocation screwed up big time !

 

btw, lta also change coe allocation method liao right ... no of coe recycled = no of coe deregistered instead of "projection" - as good as throwing dice

 

even 120k coe allocated ... price may still high ... look at spore population now compare to 2004/2005

 

sian sia...

[Amazon777]

At $80k+ for CAT A, recently heard alot of resentment among the middle class. Come 2016, hope all is good for SG

Edited December 20, 2012 by Amazon777

[Maz0608]

My take is this, if you are comfortable with the current price and able to afford, by all mean. For me, i have other priorities in life which is more important than worry about COE prices and buy new car. If my current coe expire in 2018 and COE still rocket high, i will settle with used car like those left 2-3 yrs. Actually there are still affordable used car around, like Sunny, Lancer, Impreza. They are less popular and thus lower resale, but that's fine for me as a tool for A to B. That's life bah. Learn to be flexible.

I have the same thinking as you...

But I guess when your car COE expires in 2018, those old cars left with 2 to 3 years will not be cheap either.

My car COE also expires in 2018, so I just try to enjoy the convenience and comfort of owning a car as much as I can.

 

[Brendon1980]

it is really a viscious cycle isn't it?

for business operation, coe increment will factor into the end product which will be absorb by consummers?

well for sure the garment's pockets isnt going to suffer.

 

looking at one perspective, reducing the quota certainly works. Cause practically the number of cars reduces.

previously coe use to be a tool to control the demand, however now it seems that the demand is a tool to control the coe.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Brendon1980

[Civic6228]

I also think that LTA will do something about the "boom / bust" cycle that is looming.

 

Come the 2014 - 2016 period, I seriously believe something will be done to keep the COE high enough so that all the current high COE cars aren't deregistered, leading to another famine in a few years time.

 

This sort of cycle is not healthy for the industry or the country.

 

Once all the "compulsory deregistrations" start, a lot of people will drop out of the market, even if the COE does drop back to $40-$50k. To move from a $10k-$20k COE to a $50k COE is a big jump (IMO) and many won't do it.

 

The fluctuation of the car prices is caused by the prices of COE period .... A Camry selling at 80k in Y2009 COE is like 10k or less .... fast forward today .... Camry selling at 150k, COE is 80k .... there is no much changes in the cost of the car. Car buyers are just paying much more for the piece of paper.

 

I support to cut the COE allocation further from Y201$. One factor that I agree is the increase population recently. More people = more cars ....

[Kar_lover]

Once all the "compulsory deregistrations" start, a lot of people will drop out of the market, even if the COE does drop back to $40-$50k. To move from a $10k-$20k COE to a $50k COE is a big jump (IMO) and many won't do it.

 

I am not sure that wouldbe true cos they would be in no worse off position compared to the "new" buyers. If they do not renew, it would more likely due to their own economic situation, need for car (or lack thereof), age, etc. and not cos of a "mental block" of not being able to pay significantly higher COE then before.

 

Also in the 10yrs that have passed, their salary would have presumably gone up as well. Personally, my previous car which was bought 4yrs ago when COE was $15k and my current ride bought earlier this year was $60k COE. Excluding COE, my previous car and current car are more or less within the same ballpark. So the increase in price is mostly accounted for by the COE. Yes, my installment went up by $400/mth compared to my previous car. But in the intervening 4 years my salary went up "a few thousand"/mth. So in actual fact i am spending a smaller amount of my income on my car compared to 4 yrs ago.

 

[Wt_know]

good for you

time to change to porky

 

I am not sure that wouldbe true cos they would be in no worse off position compared to the "new" buyers. If they do not renew, it would more likely due to their own economic situation, need for car (or lack thereof), age, etc. and not cos of a "mental block" of not being able to pay significantly higher COE then before.

 

Also in the 10yrs that have passed, their salary would have presumably gone up as well. Personally, my previous car which was bought 4yrs ago when COE was $15k and my current ride bought earlier this year was $60k COE. Excluding COE, my previous car and current car are more or less within the same ballpark. So the increase in price is mostly accounted for by the COE. Yes, my installment went up by $400/mth compared to my previous car. But in the intervening 4 years my salary went up "a few thousand"/mth. So in actual fact i am spending a smaller amount of my income on my car compared to 4 yrs ago.

Edited December 20, 2012 by Wt_know

[Darryn]

I am not sure that wouldbe true cos they would be in no worse off position compared to the "new" buyers. If they do not renew, it would more likely due to their own economic situation, need for car (or lack thereof), age, etc. and not cos of a "mental block" of not being able to pay significantly higher COE then before.

 

Also in the 10yrs that have passed, their salary would have presumably gone up as well. Personally, my previous car which was bought 4yrs ago when COE was $15k and my current ride bought earlier this year was $60k COE. Excluding COE, my previous car and current car are more or less within the same ballpark. So the increase in price is mostly accounted for by the COE. Yes, my installment went up by $400/mth compared to my previous car. But in the intervening 4 years my salary went up "a few thousand"/mth. So in actual fact i am spending a smaller amount of my income on my car compared to 4 yrs ago.

 

I have a big mental block about paying for a high price COE - even if I can afford it, I don't think I will do so.

[Roh96]

I am not sure that wouldbe true cos they would be in no worse off position compared to the "new" buyers. If they do not renew, it would more likely due to their own economic situation, need for car (or lack thereof), age, etc. and not cos of a "mental block" of not being able to pay significantly higher COE then before.

 

Also in the 10yrs that have passed, their salary would have presumably gone up as well. Personally, my previous car which was bought 4yrs ago when COE was $15k and my current ride bought earlier this year was $60k COE. Excluding COE, my previous car and current car are more or less within the same ballpark. So the increase in price is mostly accounted for by the COE. Yes, my installment went up by $400/mth compared to my previous car. But in the intervening 4 years my salary went up "a few thousand"/mth. So in actual fact i am spending a smaller amount of my income on my car compared to 4 yrs ago.

 

 

Good for u. Unfortunately for many ppl, the prices of car and house increase faster than their salary increase. The COE jump faster than my heartbeat.

[Roh96]

I have a big mental block about paying for a high price COE - even if I can afford it, I don't think I will do so.

 

Nevermind, give yourself another few more years. You will learn to accept.

[Simon29]

2014/2015 LTA may decide to do coe clawback ... not all the deregistered coe will be recycled

let's see ... yeah coe allocation screwed up big time !

btw, lta also change coe allocation method liao right ... no of coe recycled = no of coe deregistered instead of "projection" - as good as throwing dice

even 120k coe allocated ... price may still high ... look at spore population now compare to 2004/2005

 

This clawback is like a invisible hand, artificially controlling the market. I hope it will not be implemented in 2014/2015.

If the no. of Coe recycle = no. of Coe deregistered six months ago, then there is a very very high chance of low COE price in 2015 onwards. Provided the clawback is not used.

 

Current yealy COE quota is around 40,000.

Come 2013 it may jolly well reduce to 30,000.

So in theory, if the 120,000 cars were to be suddenly deregistered in 2014 and another 120,000 in 2015.

That is a Huge numbers of recycled Coe ....like 4 times as much released. It will surely be a roller coster ride to try to catch a low COE in 2015.

 

I am looking forward to 2015 cheap Coe......but first thing first....got to survive thru the end of world tomorrow 21Dec first.

 

[Dragonfly1]

Yes, everyone assumes their pay/salary will go up eveytime you renew the COE ( assume you keep the car for ten years), so does your spending in other areas including children educations, health issue medical cost, and dont forget you need to save to live the old age!

 

My impression is most singaporean not thinking about the pension and how to live old age!

 

 

 

Good for u. Unfortunately for many ppl, the prices of car and house increase faster than their salary increase. The COE jump faster than my heartbeat.