Worst Case: Cat A COE quota shrink by 65%

[Happily1986]

Unless govt say wanna increase car growth rate which i think chances r near zero as they already say they wanna decrease till negative growth in future. So good luck to all.

 

They realised the shat has struck the fan. When we were educated that COE was a form of car population control, they forgot to mention the obvious. It was meant to restrain growth by tempering demand with artificially capped supply. Do you see what is happening now? Essentially a tool which is used to restrain growth is now being pushed to the fore to perform the incredulous task of reducing car population growth?

 

Will this work? Maybe but it is not very scalable at that and probably the target objectives will be met with unintended consequences. Oops. Did i mention unintended?

[Roh96]

that's what i did.. just traded-in my 5+ yr car for a pre-owned 2011 car.

in a way, i'm hedging the coe futures... near-term, coe unlikely to fall.. but till 2021, there is a chance.

 

if i hold my old car till coe expires in 2016, if coe don't come down, i either gonna downgrade or take our world-class transport.

i (and family) are not prepared to do that.

 

if heng heng 2016 coe somehow drops, i still have the option to change another car, or drive till 2021 (and see how things go)

in short, more leeway to play around.

 

edit: other advantages.. 2011 car still under warranty, and the coe (resulting in overall cost) is 35k. still cheaper than current level

 

Smart plan lah. U have reset your clock and u now have 9 yrs to wait. If COE remain at this level till 2021....i think MCF can close shop liao. Most probably only RadX and his few buddies left to talk about cars, since he just bought an Altis 1.6 today. The rest of us will talk about train, buses and taxi.

[Nkps]

Next time you should stay in Pookee Merah and do Pookeemar there

Stay pookee merah not elite enuff bro... Must stay cairnpookee (cairnhill)

[Kaedetod]

that's what i did.. just traded-in my 5+ yr car for a pre-owned 2011 car.

in a way, i'm hedging the coe futures... near-term, coe unlikely to fall.. but till 2021, there is a chance.

 

if i hold my old car till coe expires in 2016, if coe don't come down, i either gonna downgrade or take our world-class transport.

i (and family) are not prepared to do that.

 

if heng heng 2016 coe somehow drops, i still have the option to change another car, or drive till 2021 (and see how things go)

in short, more leeway to play around.

 

edit: other advantages.. 2011 car still under warranty, and the coe (resulting in overall cost) is 35k. still cheaper than current level

 

dont mean to be crtical but when i was reading ur post, ur reasoning is base on a lot on premises which i dont understand

 

 

1. "in a way, i'm hedging the coe futures... near-term, coe unlikely to fall.. but till 2021, there is a chance."

You are buying in now at record coe rates. ur car maybe bought when coe is 35k but already its adjusted with a 2nd hand value priced at 50+k coe ,

worse thing is that u are holding on to less paper value (coe 35k)

 

2. "if i hold my old car till coe expires in 2016, if coe don't come down, i either gonna downgrade or take our world-class transport.

i (and family) are not prepared to do that."

if COE doesnt come down, remains 50-60k, u have actually saved money by keeping ur old car

thats beacuse by buying now, from 2012 to 2016 u are paying more for the depreciation of ur 1 year old c180

u can then change to a new car at 2016

 

3. "if heng heng 2016 coe somehow drops, i still have the option to change another car, or drive till 2021 (and see how things go)

in short, more leeway to play around."

if coe drops 2016, by keeping ur old car u have saved even more money

this would be a bad scenario for u, cos u will be stuck with ur c180 (not much paper value to scrap) , u will have to drive it to 10 years w/o the option to change

 

 

the only scenario where u have "gained" money is if COE shoots up continually to 2016

most people here i feel are of the view that COE will shoot up now to a peak in 2013, anything after tat is anyone's guess, im thinking 2016 will see a lower COE than today

Edited April 18, 2012 by Kaedetod

[Solar]

thanks bro for point this out.. would have hoped for more such discussions before buying my car

 

dont mean to be crtical but when i was reading ur post, ur reasoning is base on a lot on premises which i dont understand

 

1. "in a way, i'm hedging the coe futures... near-term, coe unlikely to fall.. but till 2021, there is a chance."

You are buying in now at record coe rates. ur car maybe bought when coe is 35k but already its adjusted with a 2nd hand value priced at 50+k coe ,

worse thing is that u are holding on to less paper value (coe 35k)

>> probably so.. i didn't think about this..but i also considered the depreciation of both cars. calculated to be about 2-3k difference.

the running maintenance costs of an old turbo car would also be much higher

 

2. "if i hold my old car till coe expires in 2016, if coe don't come down, i either gonna downgrade or take our world-class transport.

i (and family) are not prepared to do that."

if COE doesnt come down, remains 50-60k, u have actually saved money by keeping ur old car

thats beacuse by buying now, from 2012 to 2016 u are paying more for the depreciation of ur 1 year old c180

u can then change to a new car at 2016

>> yes.. as i have mentioned before, i have put my stake on high coe in the next 4yrs.

it is true my old car has a lesser depreciation, but i also need to consider that the parf rebate is only 17k after its 10yrs in 2016. what can i buy with that 17k if coe remains at 60k without topping up at least 50k to it? (i don't fancy high loans, btw)

3. "if heng heng 2016 coe somehow drops, i still have the option to change another car, or drive till 2021 (and see how things go)

in short, more leeway to play around."

if coe drops 2016, by keeping ur old car u have saved even more money

this would be a bad scenario for u, cos u will be stuck with ur c180 (not much paper value to scrap) , u will have to drive it to 10 years w/o the option to change

>> it is a gamble... no 100% win here.. if that happens, then i suck thumb loh.. but also considering the reliability of the c180, there should not be an issue if it turns out bad and i can't get rid of it

the only scenario where u have "gained" money is if COE shoots up continually to 2016

most people here i feel are of the view that COE will shoot up now to a peak in 2013, anything after tat is anyone's guess, im thinking 2016 will see a lower COE than today

>> yup.. either i don't have a car to drive by the 4th yr, or i get 'stuck' with a newer car for the next 9yrs.. i chose the latter.

[Piyopico]

Actually the promo C class at about 159K would have a depreciation of ard 14K.

 

You got a resale of 1 yr 3 mth at 13K depreciation. Not much of a diff right?

[Kiadaw]

Singaporeans are truly hard to please leh,

 

When COE is cheaper, car growth is high & road too crowded, people complain, when the government try to slow or give negative growth of COE, obviously the price of COE is gonna soar high, then people complain too expensive liao.

 

I can fully understand people complain about housing prices, & I think its something that need attention, but we lived in the 2nd most crowded country, not to mention an Island nation (Monaco is first, but its connected to mainland France). Obviously things like car & space are at a premium.

 

You may blame the FT/FW policy for the crowding of Singapore, its a fair complain, but whats done is done. The only thing the government can do is to ensure that most people can get to key places easily without much delay, & especially people that are not convenience are taken car of.

 

Cars should be left to people willing to pay a premium in a big crowded city like Singapore.

 

 

 

 

[KARTer]

Singaporeans are truly hard to please leh,

 

When COE is cheaper, car growth is high & road too crowded, people complain, when the government try to slow or give negative growth of COE, obviously the price of COE is gonna soar high, then people complain too expensive liao.

 

I can fully understand people complain about housing prices, & I think its something that need attention, but we lived in the 2nd most crowded country, not to mention an Island nation (Monaco is first, but its connected to mainland France). Obviously things like car & space are at a premium.

 

You may blame the FT/FW policy for the crowding of Singapore, its a fair complain, but whats done is done. The only thing the government can do is to ensure that most people can get to key places easily without much delay, & especially people that are not convenience are taken car of.

 

Cars should be left to people willing to pay a premium in a big crowded city like Singapore.

People who can or are willing to pay a premium to drive is not the issue:- the rich is not what the society needs to be overtly concerned with, they can easily take care of themselves.

 

The issue is for the masses who chose not or cant afford to drive, what's the alternative? A 'world class' public transport system as witnessed by the repeated breakdowns these days? Yesterday's breakdown is not a usual wear n tear one, the line is new!

 

Sad to see sgp sinks to this level in this regard.

Edited April 18, 2012 by KARTer

[Mllcg]

Singaporeans are truly hard to please leh,

 

When COE is cheaper, car growth is high & road too crowded, people complain, when the government try to slow or give negative growth of COE, obviously the price of COE is gonna soar high, then people complain too expensive liao.

 

I can fully understand people complain about housing prices, & I think its something that need attention, but we lived in the 2nd most crowded country, not to mention an Island nation (Monaco is first, but its connected to mainland France). Obviously things like car & space are at a premium.

 

You may blame the FT/FW policy for the crowding of Singapore, its a fair complain, but whats done is done. The only thing the government can do is to ensure that most people can get to key places easily without much delay, & especially people that are not convenience are taken car of.

 

Cars should be left to people willing to pay a premium in a big crowded city like Singapore.

 

if they want to make cars restrictive due to space constraints,

 

public tpt must improve.

 

its one or the other.

 

why people in tokyo/hong kong choose not to drive is coz their public transport system runs like clockwork

[Sabian]

Smart plan lah. U have reset your clock and u now have 9 yrs to wait. If COE remain at this level till 2021....i think MCF can close shop liao. Most probably only RadX and his few buddies left to talk about cars, since he just bought an Altis 1.6 today. The rest of us will talk about train, buses and taxi.

yah. then this forum becum very atas and less singlish posts. and then got more cosmopolitan vibe.

 

jialat. need to set up mypublictransportforum.com liao.

[Kiadaw]

if they want to make cars restrictive due to space constraints,

 

public tpt must improve.

 

its one or the other.

 

why people in tokyo/hong kong choose not to drive is coz their public transport system runs like clockwork

 

Like I said, they need to improve things to make public transport, cycling, & whatever means of going A to B more accessible.

 

Its not the world best at the moment, but certainly not 3rd world like many people make it out to be.

 

Also, I think we Singaporeans are very inflexible, if one mean of going A to B is not the most convenience or cheap, we are brain dead to find alternative means to get A to B.

[KARTer]

if they want to make cars restrictive due to space constraints,

 

public tpt must improve.

 

its one or the other.

 

why people in tokyo/hong kong choose not to drive is coz their public transport system runs like clockwork

Fully agree. If HK can do it, why sgp cant for public transport?

[KARTer]

Like I said, they need to improve things to make public transport, cycling, & whatever means of going A to B more accessible.

 

Its not the world best at the moment, but certainly not 3rd world like many people make it out to be.

 

Also, I think we Singaporeans are very inflexible, if one mean of going A to B is not the most convenience or cheap, we are brain dead to find alternative means to get A to B.

I think not all are saying sgp is 3rd class, but for the high cost of living here (unlike the low-low cost in 3rd world), it is legitimate for pple to expect something better than what we have now: breakdowns even when the system is new.

[Mllcg]

Like I said, they need to improve things to make public transport, cycling, & whatever means of going A to B more accessible.

 

Its not the world best at the moment, but certainly not 3rd world like many people make it out to be.

 

Also, I think we Singaporeans are very inflexible, if one mean of going A to B is not the most convenience or cheap, we are brain dead to find alternative means to get A to B.

 

of coz cheap is #1 priority.

 

our tpt is already very ex.

 

finding ways to pay less is better

[Kiadaw]

Fully agree. If HK can do it, why sgp cant for public transport?

HK really so good? I only ever been in HK to take a bus direct to China Huichou. No chance to sighsee & anything. *Sigh*

 

maybe one day, I need to actually go HK.

[KARTer]

HK really so good? I only ever been in HK to take a bus direct to China Huichou. No chance to sighsee & anything. *Sigh*

 

maybe one day, I need to actually go HK.

its good, can ask bro Bicolor who lives there

[Solar]

Actually the promo C class at about 159K would have a depreciation of ard 14K.

 

You got a resale of 1 yr 3 mth at 13K depreciation. Not much of a diff right?

 

i think u didn't read the other post lah..159k is kelong one.

in addition, u also got to factor the trade-in given for your old car and the interest, if u are not paying full at one go.

 

cnc gave me lousy trade-in, and i am not dumping all my cash into the car..got some other purpose for it.

all in, i calculated the depreciation for my case was about 16-17k. sibeh bo hua..

 

[13177]

HK really so good? I only ever been in HK to take a bus direct to China Huichou. No chance to sighsee & anything. *Sigh*

 

maybe one day, I need to actually go HK.

Wonder HK really that good or not? Cause based on the latest survey on the best country to stay, think hk came in number 11, whereas sillypore is number 1.