The Inflation-Deflation Debate

[Jrage]

Interesting.... so pty go up or go down?!?!


http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews2011..._deflation.html

The Inflation-Deflation Debate—What Lies Ahead?
(Kitco News) - Inflation-inducing scenarios loom over the global economy as 2011 eases out and 2012 slips in, but how all the elements come together in the next few months will be a key to just how high prices rise and how long they stay there.

As the close of the year, the U.S. continues to limp along at a very slow growth rate. Consumer prices in the U.S. picked-up in recent months, with headline inflation surging mid-year . And, the U.S. Federal Reserve is heading into its third year of a near zero-interest rate policy.

What are the risks for additional inflation? Could the record levels of liquidity pumped into the financial system from the U.S. Fed ultimately create massive inflation ahead? Or, on the other side of the coin, with the U.S. slow-growth scenario still concerning economists, is deflation actually a risk here? On a global front, economists note that a sort of "two-track" inflation outlook is arising—with emerging economies showing rising levels of inflation, while advanced economies remain on a slow inflation track, primarily due to low growth.

A primary focus is on the U.S., with economic forecasts for the 2012 and what this could all mean on the inflation/deflation front.

U.S. GROWTH OUTLOOK

When considering an inflation or deflation outlook, one must first take a look at overall growth prospects. Some economists say that the eurozone may actually already be in a recession. Meanwhile, recent U.S. economic data has posted marginal improvement, though overall growth remains lack-luster and below trend.

After posting a 3.0% GDP rate in 2010, the U.S. is on track for an estimated 2011 growth rate of 1.7%, according to Credit Suisse. Looking ahead into 2012, Credit Suisse forecasts a 2.1% GDP pace. Not recessionary, but certainly not strong growth either.

Looking at consumer price index data, 2010 saw the U.S. post a 1.6% year-over-year CPI reading. In 2011, however, that is estimated to show a spike higher to a 3.2% annual rate, according to Credit Suisse. Into 2012, Credit Suisse forecasts moderation back to the 1.7% level for CPI for the year.

However, looking at the core rate of CPI, which excludes food and energy, that also saw a bump up from a 1.0% level in 2010 to an estimated 1.7% reading for 2011. That is forecast to continue edging higher to 1.9% in 2012, according to Credit Suisse.

What caused the bump up in core inflation in 2011?

"A year ago we had just come through the period with the lowest 12-month core [CPI] rate since 1960," said David Resler, chief U.S. economist at Nomura. "In the past year, it has accelerated by a full percentage point. However, much of it was driven by temporary factors," he said.

INFLATION BOOSTERS

Resler pointed to the "sharp acceleration in new and used vehicle prices" as one factor supporting the bump up in core inflation in 2011. "That happened just after the tsunami hit Japan. When you have a big reduction in supply, prices usually go up," Resler said.

However, he noted that vehicle prices have already started to come back down. Another factor bolstering the core rate of inflation is the "pass-through effect of [higher] energy prices. That too is likely to prove temporary," he said.

Finally, a third factor sparking higher inflation levels was that the "mortgage and housing crisis has created a big surge in demand for rental properties. House rents have been rising," Resler said.

Overall, however, Resler sees muted inflationary pressures ahead. "Most of the things that caused the core inflation are already reversing or will begin to reverse," he said. Nomura estimates that core CPI inflation will total 2.1% in 2011, but then drop back down to 1.4% in 2012.

Asha Bangalore, senior vice president and economist at Northern Trust Bank agreed with Resler's view. "Demand is not robust [enough] to ignite higher inflation —overall and core. Given the fact that the EU is most likely to experience a recession, Brazil, India, and China are experiencing weakness, and Japan has its own challenges, world demand for commodities is not likely to translate into rising prices. With respect to the core CPI, housing is the largest component. Housing costs are moving up but there is no major threat of inflation," she said.

WEAK LABOR MARKET

The U.S. Federal Reserve, with its dual mandate to contain inflation and promote employment, is not currently concerned about inflation, Resler said. "The issue for the Fed is the unemployment rate." While the overall U.S. unemployment rate has dipped down slightly to the 8.6% level towards the end of 2011, it saw a mid-year push above the 9.0% level, uncomfortably high for the U.S.

In fact, the weak labor market may be a key factor holding inflation down in the months ahead in the U.S., some economists said.

"Wages are barely growing," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Capital Markets Group. In fact, he sees stagnant wage growth in the U.S. ahead. "It's going to be difficult to significantly reduce unemployment without a softening of wages. You are going to have a reduction in real average wages in order to reduce unemployment substantially," Lonski said. This type of scenario simply doesn't offer businesses any pricing power to increase the cost of goods.

"I don't see it [inflation] getting much faster. When you have such high unemployment, businesses have the ability to keep wages down. Businesses can't raise prices," said Jeff Rosen, economist at Briefing.com. "There's nothing on the horizon that suggests inflation will be rising."

However, Rosen conceded that headline inflation or the rate that does include food and energy is vulnerable to a pop higher in 2012. "If we seen another shock in food or another Arab Spring event, we could see prices move up," he warned.

HYPERINFLATION THREAT?

Some market watchers, however, have highlighted concerns about inflation or even hyper-inflation in the wake of the U.S. Fed's massive stimulus programs, which included quantitative easing and QE2. Critics of the stimulus warned this could ultimately result in high inflation down the road once the U.S. economy rebounded.

In fact, part of the current slow growth problem is that banks are not lending and there simply isn't demand for borrowing right now, economists said. Businesses are hesitant to borrow with all the current economic uncertainty swirling around. So, the additional liquidity from the Fed simply isn't roiling around in the financial system right now.

"As long as banks hold excess reserves and are not extending credit, inflation is not a concern. It will be worrisome if bank start lending at a strong clip," said Northern Trust's Bangalore.

"The worry is that if the economy reverses back and banks snap their fingers and start lending again, there is a lot of available credit and liquidity. There is a risk that a lot of money could enter the system really quickly," said Briefing's Rosen. But, that is "contingent on the economy turning around and growing really quickly, which doesn't seem likely," he added.

Even if it did, Rosen believed the Fed could contain that situation. "If that were to happen, the Fed could just tighten the screws to limit liquidity and limit the extra money supply," he explained.

THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN

It wasn't too long ago that concerns about a Japan-like deflationary spiral were circulating about the U.S. economy, are those worries now in the rear view mirror?

"Deflation is not a concern, the economy is growing and Fed has succeeded in turning the tide here," said Northern Trust's Bangalore.

However, others remain wary. "You can't rule it out. There was a risk of that a year ago," said Beth Ann Bovino, deputy chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. Core CPI fell to a 0.6% level in the fourth quarter of 2010.

What exactly is deflation? Bovino offered this definition. "If everybody saves, nobody spends, businesses don't hire, products don’t get sold and prices fall further and further," she said.

Japan became mired in such a scenario during the 1990s and as the Bank of Japan discovered deflation is a hard nut to crack. Economists actually say that central banks have more policy tools at their disposal to tackle rising levels of inflation as opposed to falling levels of deflation. While some critics may wonder about the impact that QE2 had on the U.S. economy, Bovino calls it a success story merely because "it was very helpful in preventing the U.S. from falling into a deflationary spiral."

Overall, economists appear to be more concerned about the potential for deflation on the horizon, than actual inflation in the U.S.

"We don’t see this [deflation] as a likelihood but there is some potential," said Nomura's Resler.

What factors would need to unfold to spark actual deflation? Resler said "it would probably take another retreat into recession."

Moody's Lonski added that in the U.S. currently, "real wage deflation is underway. That presents a risk for consumer spending and housing. If we are going to have a severe market disruption in the next 12 months it is much more likely to be because of price deflation than price inflation. The 1970s are not likely to recur anytime soon," he said.

Edited January 20, 2015 by pChou

[Spring]

It has been reported in today's ST that S'pore will have its first deflation for 5 years, largely due to falling oil prices, fluctuations in COE prices etc.

 

The report posted a caution on deflation which I completely don't understand cos I thought since we are net oil importers, this should be good for our general economy as prices should be cheaper all round although I wouldn't bet that the falling prices will finds its way to the consumers but nevertheless should be good news overall I feel but obviously I'm no economist as the report says otherwise.

 

Inflation also no good, deflation also no good then what is good??? Lol!!

[SuPerBoRed]

its all technical data man...

 

food is not cheaper!! i dont feel my petrol getting cheaper at all... (actually hv.. but becoz of esso voucher la)... also dont see how the willingness of a few hundred/mth on COE pricing can affect the general populace numbering in the millions...

[Sabian]

It has been reported in today's ST that S'pore will have its first deflation for 5 years, largely due to falling oil prices, fluctuations in COE prices etc.

 

The report posted a caution on deflation which I completely don't understand cos I thought since we are net oil importers, this should be good for our general economy as prices should be cheaper all round although I wouldn't bet that the falling prices will finds its way to the consumers but nevertheless should be good news overall I feel but obviously I'm no economist as the report says otherwise.

 

Inflation also no good, deflation also no good then what is good??? Lol!!

 

Very mild inflation that moves in tandem with productivity gains is good. Like what we experienced in the earlier years.

 

Deflation is no good (if it's long term) bec it has a knock on effect on investment/ consumption (ie: basically long term and short term spending).

 

Eventually, incomes will get affected and it becomes a deadly spiral as consumers and companies start to postpone purchases.

[Neutrino]

If COE is a component of the calculation it's really going to give a false result when comparing to all other countries with no COE.

[OmOm]

Inflation also no good, deflation also no good then what is good??? Lol!!

 

To answer this question, it is crucial to first understand what money is all about.

 

While money is something we deal with on a daily basis, not many people would delve into the underlying meaning of it because of their hectic schedule.

 

Money essentially represents the sum of two things in the system:

 

a. total services (skills, manpower, abilities, time) contributed by participating individuals

 

b. total materials (raw ingredients, components, finished products) available

 

Money in itself has no meaning if there are insufficient subscribers to the concept. The only reason why money has meaning is because the majority of the population subscribe to it and have faith in its purpose and role.

 

Money thus serves as a relatively viable medium of exchange of materials and services when people believe in it.

 

Accordingly, the flow of money is the crux in proper functioning of any economy because a strong flow of money translates to a vibrant and active economy (exchange of materials and services).

 

Inflation happens when a unit of money - loosely speaking, currency - decreases in value relative to the underlying tangibles of materials and services. This can arise due to several reasons e.g. Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

QE increases the number of units of money in the system. When the underlying tangibles do not increase in tandem, inflation takes place. The greater the rate of increase of number of money units relative to the quantity of underlying tangibles, the higher the inflation rate.

 

Deflation happens when a unit of money increases in value relative to the underlying tangibles. This can arise due to several reason as well e.g. money supply contraction.

 

When the number of money units in the system is reduced, the ratio of money units to the underlying tangibles decreases, creating an increase in the perceived value of each unit. The greater the rate of decrease of quantity of money units relative to the underlying tangibles, the higher the rate of deflation.

 

Neither inflation nor deflation is bad in itself.

 

The crux lies in the flow of money. When the flow of money is stymied, the economy slows because participants in the economy reduce their activities (e.g. trade). The slowing economy results in poor performance of companies which in turn produces downward pressure on salaries and purchasing power - a vicious cycle.

 

When the flow of money is strong, economies thrive because participants increase their activities. The thriving economy generates positive performance numbers for companies which in turn allows them to pay their workers better and hire more workers who then have stronger purchasing power - a virtuous cycle.

 

Thus it is more important to look at the flow of money than either inflation or deflation on their own.

 

Central banks and governments constantly juggle inflationary and deflationary forces in a bid to keep the flow of money strong.

 

The monetary system that we have today has roots in ancient civilisations and therefore is highly limited and flawed, allowing individual entities to exploit loopholes and manipulate the system for their own advantage.

 

Eventually the current monetary system (given its flawed structure) will inevitably come to a total collapse in the near future, and a new one shall emerge from the ashes.

 

Hopefully the new monetary system will tap on the new technology that we have today to allow greater transparency and stability.

Edited December 24, 2014 by OmOm

[Spring]

 

Very mild inflation that moves in tandem with productivity gains is good. Like what we experienced in the earlier years.

 

Deflation is no good (if it's long term) bec it has a knock on effect on investment/ consumption (ie: basically long term and short term spending).

 

Eventually, incomes will get affected and it becomes a deadly spiral as consumers and companies start to postpone purchases.

Thanks bros for the comprehensive and educational replies. Though I'm still abit confused but slowly understanding this better. Owe u guys +5 tmr, Merry Xmas😃

 

To answer this question, it is crucial to first understand what money is all about.

 

While money is something we deal with on a daily basis, not many people would delve into the underlying meaning of it because of their hectic schedule.

 

Money essentially represents the sum of two things in the system:

 

a. total services (skills, manpower, abilities, time) contributed by participating individuals

 

b. total materials (raw ingredients, components, finished products) available

 

Money in itself has no meaning if there are insufficient subscribers to the concept. The only reason why money has meaning is because the majority of the population subscribe to it and have faith in its purpose and role.

 

Money thus serves as a relatively viable medium of exchange of materials and services when people believe in it.

 

Accordingly, the flow of money is the crux in proper functioning of any economy because a strong flow of money translates to a vibrant and active economy (exchange of materials and services).

 

Inflation happens when a unit of money - loosely speaking, currency - decreases in value relative to the underlying tangibles of materials and services. This can arise due to several reasons e.g. Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

QE increases the number of units of money in the system. When the underlying tangibles do not increase in tandem, inflation takes place. The greater the rate of increase of number of money units relative to the quantity of underlying tangibles, the higher the inflation rate.

 

Deflation happens when a unit of money increases in value relative to the underlying tangibles. This can arise due to several reason as well e.g. money supply contraction.

 

When the number of money units in the system is reduced, the ratio of money units to the underlying tangibles decreases, creating an increase in the perceived value of each unit. The greater the rate of decrease of quantity of money units relative to the underlying tangibles, the higher the rate of deflation.

 

Neither inflation nor deflation is bad in itself.

 

The crux lies in the flow of money. When the flow of money is stymied, the economy slows because participants in the economy reduce their activities (e.g. trade). The slowing economy results in poor performance of companies which in turn produces downward pressure on salaries and purchasing power - a vicious cycle.

 

When the flow of money is strong, economies thrive because participants increase their activities. The thriving economy generates positive performance numbers for companies which in turn allows them to pay their workers better and hire more workers who then have stronger purchasing power - a virtuous cycle.

 

Thus it is more important to look at the flow of money than either inflation or deflation on their own.

 

Central banks and governments constantly juggle inflationary and deflationary forces in a bid to keep the flow of money strong.

 

The monetary system that we have today has roots in ancient civilisations and therefore is highly limited and flawed, allowing individual entities to exploit loopholes and manipulate the system for their own advantage.

 

Eventually the current monetary system (given its flawed structure) will inevitably come to a total collapse in the near future, and a new one shall emerge from the ashes.

 

Hopefully the new monetary system will tap on the new technology that we have today to allow greater transparency and stability.

[RadX]

The last post is an excellent piece of information sharing that is balanced informative and insightful

 

A breath of fresh air cf a lot of other posts where ego battles on who is smarter and timing of purchase prevails to soothe their insecure beings

Good one bro @omom.

 

Hv a blessed xmas

[OmOm]

The last post is an excellent piece of information sharing that is balanced informative and insightful

 

A breath of fresh air cf a lot of other posts where ego battles on who is smarter and timing of purchase prevails to soothe their insecure beings

Good one bro @omom.

 

Hv a blessed xmas

 

Wishing everyone Peace, Joy and Love this Christmas and success in all your endeavours in the coming New Year!

[Myxilplix]

OmOm's posts always make me go Ommmmmmm....

[Vid]

 

To answer this question, it is crucial to first understand what money is all about.

 

While money is something we deal with on a daily basis, not many people would delve into the underlying meaning of it because of their hectic schedule.

 

Money essentially represents the sum of two things in the system:

 

a. total services (skills, manpower, abilities, time) contributed by participating individuals

 

b. total materials (raw ingredients, components, finished products) available

 

Money in itself has no meaning if there are insufficient subscribers to the concept. The only reason why money has meaning is because the majority of the population subscribe to it and have faith in its purpose and role.

 

Money thus serves as a relatively viable medium of exchange of materials and services when people believe in it.

 

Accordingly, the flow of money is the crux in proper functioning of any economy because a strong flow of money translates to a vibrant and active economy (exchange of materials and services).

 

Inflation happens when a unit of money - loosely speaking, currency - decreases in value relative to the underlying tangibles of materials and services. This can arise due to several reasons e.g. Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

QE increases the number of units of money in the system. When the underlying tangibles do not increase in tandem, inflation takes place. The greater the rate of increase of number of money units relative to the quantity of underlying tangibles, the higher the inflation rate.

 

Deflation happens when a unit of money increases in value relative to the underlying tangibles. This can arise due to several reason as well e.g. money supply contraction.

 

When the number of money units in the system is reduced, the ratio of money units to the underlying tangibles decreases, creating an increase in the perceived value of each unit. The greater the rate of decrease of quantity of money units relative to the underlying tangibles, the higher the rate of deflation.

 

Neither inflation nor deflation is bad in itself.

 

The crux lies in the flow of money. When the flow of money is stymied, the economy slows because participants in the economy reduce their activities (e.g. trade). The slowing economy results in poor performance of companies which in turn produces downward pressure on salaries and purchasing power - a vicious cycle.

 

When the flow of money is strong, economies thrive because participants increase their activities. The thriving economy generates positive performance numbers for companies which in turn allows them to pay their workers better and hire more workers who then have stronger purchasing power - a virtuous cycle.

 

Thus it is more important to look at the flow of money than either inflation or deflation on their own.

 

Central banks and governments constantly juggle inflationary and deflationary forces in a bid to keep the flow of money strong.

 

The monetary system that we have today has roots in ancient civilisations and therefore is highly limited and flawed, allowing individual entities to exploit loopholes and manipulate the system for their own advantage.

 

Eventually the current monetary system (given its flawed structure) will inevitably come to a total collapse in the near future, and a new one shall emerge from the ashes.

 

Hopefully the new monetary system will tap on the new technology that we have today to allow greater transparency and stability.

 

One of the best post I've read in a while. Good one!!

 

Have a great Christmas!

[Jamesc]

Inflation bad cos cost of everything go up.

 

Deflation good cos cost of everything go down.

 

COE $2 everybody happy except LTA.

 

Imagine bus fare goes down, electricity bill goes down,

 

Children school fees go down, restaurant prices go down,

 

ERP goes down.

 

These things will never go down so no need to worry about deflation,

 

It will never happen.

 

:)

[Kusje]

 

Very mild inflation that moves in tandem with productivity gains is good. Like what we experienced in the earlier years.

 

Deflation is no good (if it's long term) bec it has a knock on effect on investment/ consumption (ie: basically long term and short term spending).

 

Eventually, incomes will get affected and it becomes a deadly spiral as consumers and companies start to postpone purchases.

 

Actually, as we are an export based economy, I believe that any ill-effects of deflation (in Singapore) will be quite mild for us and the should quite easily be made up by cheaper prices.

 

The main worry should be if our trading partners experience the effects of deflation and they start to withhold their purchase.

[Goldbug]

 

To answer this question, it is crucial to first understand what money is all about.

 

While money is something we deal with on a daily basis, not many people would delve into the underlying meaning of it because of their hectic schedule.

 

Money essentially represents the sum of two things in the system:

 

a. total services (skills, manpower, abilities, time) contributed by participating individuals

 

b. total materials (raw ingredients, components, finished products) available

 

Money in itself has no meaning if there are insufficient subscribers to the concept. The only reason why money has meaning is because the majority of the population subscribe to it and have faith in its purpose and role.

 

Money thus serves as a relatively viable medium of exchange of materials and services when people believe in it.

 

Accordingly, the flow of money is the crux in proper functioning of any economy because a strong flow of money translates to a vibrant and active economy (exchange of materials and services).

 

Inflation happens when a unit of money - loosely speaking, currency - decreases in value relative to the underlying tangibles of materials and services. This can arise due to several reasons e.g. Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

QE increases the number of units of money in the system. When the underlying tangibles do not increase in tandem, inflation takes place. The greater the rate of increase of number of money units relative to the quantity of underlying tangibles, the higher the inflation rate.

 

Deflation happens when a unit of money increases in value relative to the underlying tangibles. This can arise due to several reason as well e.g. money supply contraction.

 

When the number of money units in the system is reduced, the ratio of money units to the underlying tangibles decreases, creating an increase in the perceived value of each unit. The greater the rate of decrease of quantity of money units relative to the underlying tangibles, the higher the rate of deflation.

 

Neither inflation nor deflation is bad in itself.

 

The crux lies in the flow of money. When the flow of money is stymied, the economy slows because participants in the economy reduce their activities (e.g. trade). The slowing economy results in poor performance of companies which in turn produces downward pressure on salaries and purchasing power - a vicious cycle.

 

When the flow of money is strong, economies thrive because participants increase their activities. The thriving economy generates positive performance numbers for companies which in turn allows them to pay their workers better and hire more workers who then have stronger purchasing power - a virtuous cycle.

 

Thus it is more important to look at the flow of money than either inflation or deflation on their own.

 

Central banks and governments constantly juggle inflationary and deflationary forces in a bid to keep the flow of money strong.

 

The monetary system that we have today has roots in ancient civilisations and therefore is highly limited and flawed, allowing individual entities to exploit loopholes and manipulate the system for their own advantage.

 

Eventually the current monetary system (given its flawed structure) will inevitably come to a total collapse in the near future, and a new one shall emerge from the ashes.

 

Hopefully the new monetary system will tap on the new technology that we have today to allow greater transparency and stability.

The current monetary system actually started in 1971, where Nixon dropped the gold standard set in the Bretton wood accord, setting a pure fiat, paper based money system without the backing of a precious metal component.

[OmOm]

The current monetary system actually started in 1971, where Nixon dropped the gold standard set in the Bretton wood accord, setting a pure fiat, paper based money system without the backing of a precious metal component.

 

At the risk of opening a can of worms, and without the intention to offend anyone here, I am of the opinion that the fundamental nature of gold is similar to modern-day currencies.

 

Essentially it is dependent on faith and mass subscription to the belief that it can serve as a medium of exchange of services and materials.

 

The key difference between gold and modern-day currencies is that gold has had many more centuries of faith behind it than modern day currencies and thus its role as a backstop is definitely more sound and resilient than fiat currencies on their own.

 

When fiat currencies fall apart, gold will become de-facto currency again for a while because of its history and the historical faith supporting it. This will result in gold prices shooting sky-high eventually for a period of time.

 

However this will have to wait for the final trigger that is the eventual collapse of the USD, which will not happen until Asia has had its own share of crisis in the meanwhile and subsequently begins its own recovery in a few years' time.

 

Ultimately any monetary system (fiat currency, gold or otherwise) that is based on collective faith is primitive and derives from the basic premise of early day currencies (greek, roman, etc).

 

A new more advanced monetary system that has yet to be invented (but which shall succeed the current day system) will function based on a totally different set of fundamentals.

[Goldbug]

 

At the risk of opening a can of worms, and without the intention to offend anyone here, I am of the opinion that the fundamental nature of gold is similar to modern-day currencies.

 

Essentially it is dependent on faith and mass subscription to the belief that it can serve as a medium of exchange of services and materials.

 

The key difference between gold and modern-day currencies is that gold has had many more centuries of faith behind it than modern day currencies and thus its role as a backstop is definitely more sound and resilient than fiat currencies on their own.

 

When fiat currencies fall apart, gold will become de-facto currency again for a while because of its history and the historical faith supporting it. This will result in gold prices shooting sky-high eventually for a period of time.

 

However this will have to wait for the final trigger that is the eventual collapse of the USD, which will not happen until Asia has had its own share of crisis in the meanwhile and subsequently begins its own recovery in a few years' time.

 

Ultimately any monetary system (fiat currency, gold or otherwise) that is based on collective faith is primitive and derives from the basic premise of early day currencies (greek, roman, etc).

 

A new more advanced monetary system that has yet to be invented (but which shall succeed the current day system) will function based on a totally different set of fundamentals.

End of QE, plunging of oil price, is infact one and the same game to maintain the USD as a reserve currency

[OmOm]

End of QE, plunging of oil price, is infact one and the same game to maintain the USD as a reserve currency

 

Hot monies are being forced back from Asia and emerging markets to the U.S.A. for one last massive round of pump-and-dump the next few years before the USD is sacrificed as a way out of the 18-trillion-dollar debt that they are in.

Edited December 25, 2014 by OmOm

[Goldbug]

 

Hot monies are being forced back from Asia and emerging markets to the U.S.A. for one last massive round of pump-and-dump the next few years before the USD is sacrificed as a way out of the 18-trillion-dollar debt that they are in.

 

the biggest beneficiary of this oil/USD war is China, see it it breaks the Sino Russian alliance