COE forecast

[Cruzeyong]

Guys, in view of the impending US and EU economic crisis, will COE dip to below 40k?

[F1f2]

ha.ha.ha.,

below 40k for cat a, possibility >50%

below 40k for cat b, possibility <5%

 

[Balaballs]

The rate the economy is going...there is a good chance that it will drop below 40k.......wait and see for at least 6mths...no point rushing.

It will only take one default by our region for all things come crashing down.

Already our leaders predicted that economy is going to be bad for the next 3 to 4 years....I am sure they know more then what they have predicted.

 

I think it is going to be pay back time.

[Keisg]

  On 8/8/2011 at 1:35 AM, Balaballs said:

The rate the economy is going...there is a good chance that it will drop below 40k.......wait and see for at least 6mths...no point rushing.

It will only take one default by our region for all things come crashing down.

Already our leaders predicted that economy is going to be bad for the next 3 to 4 years....I am sure they know more then what they have predicted.

 

I think it is going to be pay back time.

 

 

The BIG answer is once again a NO.

 

The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2003 SARS epidemic did not see a monumental dip in COE prices.

[Hosaybo]

supply is still key to COE prices, not recession. Apparently there are lots of rich people out there who want and need a car and though affected by recession, they are not gonna to greatly affected. That's why the merc and BMWs are one of the best selling brands now.

Edited August 8, 2011 by Hosaybo

[Balaballs]

  On 8/8/2011 at 2:35 AM, Keisg said:

The BIG answer is once again a NO.

 

The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2003 SARS epidemic did not see a monumental dip in COE prices.

 

Bro, I mention as might and not will.

 

I would like to know why did the COE price came down as low as below 10k during 2008 which was quite recent compare to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2003 SARS epidemic?

 

 

[Keisg]

  On 8/8/2011 at 2:43 AM, Balaballs said:

Bro, I mention as might and not will.

 

I would like to know why did the COE price came down as low as below 10k during 2008 which was quite recent compare to 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and 2003 SARS epidemic?

 

There was an oversupply of COEs during 2008 and Lehman Brothers did not help either.

[Keisg]

According to CarBuyer, these are reasons why there will be no respite in CAT A COE prices in the coming months (despite last week's Black Friday crash) and why the Japanese and Koreans will find it hard to stay in the Top Ten.

 

1. There are more luxury cars that need a CAT A COE

 

New launches over the next 6 to 12 months are:

 

All-new BMW 1-Series (1.6-litre turbocharged)

All-new BMW 3-Series (1.6-litre turbocharged)

All-new Mercedes B-Class (1.6-litre turbocharged)

 

And just launched is the Audi A3 Sportsback 1.4T (1.4-litre twincharged)

 

And there is the popular Mercedes C180K which has a 1.6-litre supercharged lump and other premium European marques such Audi, Citroen, Peugeot, Volkswagen, and Japan's perennial favorite, the Toyota Corolla Altis.

 

2. Cab replacements

 

News is that Comfort has issued a tender for 3,000 new cabs with an option for an extra 1,000 units. At the same time, SMRT and Transcab have a massive number of cabs which have reached their 7 years mandatory retirement age. All-in-all, the taxi market has, as CarBuyer predicts, in need of at least 5,000-6,000 CAT A COEs over the next 12 months.

Edited August 8, 2011 by Keisg

[SimonTan]

With the booming economy....

People without cars will say they can take taxi.

So in the end taxi companies are buying and increasing their fleets to cater to these group of carless expats/tourists/citizens.

 

The demand is real.

This world will still go round.

The COE will not drop.....as any drop...the taxi co will take up the slack.

Remember transport company can always increase fares to cover whatever COE costs they incur. Transport co will never worries about COE as the fare increase formula do include the COE factors!

 

If you n I cannot afford cars......once a while we will take taxi for convenience right? This demand will forever drive the taxi company to keep increase their fleets. It's a vicous cycle.

 

[Timex1441]

we in MCF all saw wat happened at the last COE bidding....with abt 10 min to go (3.49pm), there were only 600 bids for 566 COE's, n the price had juz gone fr $10K to $40K....then in the next 5 min, the taxi companies put in >100 bids, resulting the price to go to $42K, $44K, etc. until it settled at $48K.

With the taxi companies having a strong demand for COEs to refresh their fleets, if this pattern is repeated at every COE bidding, how can the price drop far below $40K?....the moment it goes to, say, $38K, u can be sure tat the taxi companies will all chiong to put in or revise their bids.

[Eaton]

No point arguing . Those who brought high coe will not want coe to drop. taxi company also won't be stupid to bid high if recession on the way. People will cut back and take bus or mrt

[Kyrios]

A cheap car still takes up 1 pc of COE..maybe instead of buying a CLS, the rich just settle for a E250..still take up a pc of COE...so ...ahem..maybe will drop..to about 40-50K..but 10-20K...quite impossible unless prolonged recession ..

[Eaton]

Property going to drop 20% if this prolong

[13177]

Should not drop much even economic no good. If economic no good, there are even more people hanging on their cars and even lesser cars deregistered.

[Keenblade]

Yep... unless recession drags for more than 10 years, and affects the upper strata as well as the common folk, the prices won't change.

 

Who knows? A hypothetical situation:

 

Deep recession, common man cannot afford cars, rich forced to stick to "cheaper models". Flight from Cat A-> Public trans/Taxi, Cat B-> Cat A.

 

Cat A: Taxi, rich people. (Price unchanged, still high)

Cat B: Large CC... Bus operators now have to bid to maintain their fleets (unchanged, prices remain high).

 

Public service increase prices to match "increased costs", in a bid to keep people happy, Govt announces subsidies for bus/train and say that they are helping the common man.

 

Economy picks up a little, net CoE has gone up, not down. Govt withdraws subsidies, taxpayer money ultimately used to hide the increased prices and govt can still stick to their 5-year and 10-year plans.

 

Rinse and repeat.

[Balaballs]

  On 8/8/2011 at 4:10 AM, Eaton said:

Property going to drop 20% if this prolong

 

Just by looking at the crrent economy....COE price might not drop that much........what if the real economy starts to interfere in our daily life?

 

Remember the majority of PR have bought properties using bank loan tied down to the next 5years which are right now almost 0%.

 

If people start loosing jobs....what will the PRs do?

They will just dump their properties in the open market as they will have nothing much to loose because of the current intrest rate.

What will happen to the property market?....down.

What about the spore citizens who loose their jobs....can they pay for their housing loan?.....no

LPPL....they too will be force to sell and down grade to smaller house.......over supply.....same like USA housing market crash.

When intrest rate starts going up....even more LPPL.

 

Then do you think people will take taxi....buy car?.......

 

I am not telling it will happen but it could happen....worse case....

[Karlcarl]

i totally agree with you, my uncle who is a bank director told me last week, cash is the king now. i don't think people is going to spend during this economy downturn.

 

as for the recession in 2008, the banks were affected and they had the government to save them, now the goverments (USA and Euro Zone) are waiting for china to save them, and hold on a second, china has to fight their own inflation. and for those who think economy was booming after 2008, the economists will now tell you, they don't even think the global economy has walked out from the 2008 recession :( so the current economy crisis might not be the new crisis, rather the continuum of the the 2008 tsunami

 

my 5 cents worth

 

cheers

 

 

 

 

  On 8/8/2011 at 5:11 AM, Balaballs said:

Just by looking at the crrent economy....COE price might not drop that much........what if the real economy starts to interfere in our daily life?

 

Remember the majority of PR have bought properties using bank loan tied down to the next 5years which are right now almost 0%.

 

If people start loosing jobs....what will the PRs do?

They will just dump their properties in the open market as they will have nothing much to loose because of the current intrest rate.

What will happen to the property market?....down.

What about the spore citizens who loose their jobs....can they pay for their housing loan?.....no

LPPL....they too will be force to sell and down grade to smaller house.......over supply.....same like USA housing market crash.

When intrest rate starts going up....even more LPPL.

 

Then do you think people will take taxi....buy car?.......

 

I am not telling it will happen but it could happen....worse case....

Edited August 8, 2011 by Karlcarl

[Calvin79]

Whatever goes up will come down...

just a matter of when...

after every high, just around the corner a low is waiting...

 

once everyones starts a wait and see attitude, economy takes a plunge and everthing goes down...

but then, we can see the rich taking advantage of the situation and then the prices go back up again...

vicious cycle going on and on... am pretty sure a normal human being will suffer at least a few times of recession.

 

Lets hope by new housing prices down first and then COE...