HDB: The coming S$270 billion bailout

[Chengwh492]

http://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2011/04/...illion-bailout/

 

it sounds logical and those who chase properties and believe it is a inflation hedge in sinkieland will be in for surprise if this turns out.

 

[Zyrofillica]

http://yawningbread.wordpress.com/2011/04/...illion-bailout/

 

it sounds logical and those who chase properties and believe it is a inflation hedge in sinkieland will be in for surprise if this turns out.

[thumbsup] bump for this thread!

[Duckduck]

Garmen's cost of land is zero, they can take the $ from initial hdb flat sale to "bailout" via sers. A $50k flat in 70/80s nominal value currently is prob 250k? Sounds possible considering reserves have been growing since then, assumed since the real reserves nobody knows

[Chengwh492]

Garmen's cost of land is zero, they can take the $ from initial hdb flat sale to "bailout" via sers. A $50k flat in 70/80s nominal value currently is prob 250k? Sounds possible considering reserves have been growing since then, assumed since the real reserves nobody knows

 

where's the $? $ in gic, th, cpf, etc? the only way is to print more $.

[Wt_know]

car = 10 years expiry

hdb flat = 99 years expiry

 

so, the bottom line is to sell your flat way before it expires and capitalise the "irrational" market value

Edited April 9, 2011 by Wt_know

[Chengwh492]

car = 10 years expiry

hdb flat = 99 years expiry

 

so, the bottom line is to sell your flat way before it expires and capitalise the "irrational" market value?

 

car and property are all the same, they are expenses. just that the latter is being more artifically inflated since the $ generated from it is fantastic for those in the game.

 

it is not 'your flat' that matters, it is, as a whole, the 900000 flat in consideration as the author said, that will be a too big of a pie to swallow.

 

besides, you will have to have real good market timing to capitalize on the 'irrational' market value. and assuming you do so successfully, you profitted that sum of few hundred thousand worth of banana notes, where you stay? another leasedhold? even freehold are subjected to the land acquistion act.

 

all these are artificially created thin air that people are buying aka 'title deed'. even one of the SM also publicly admitted to let the foreigners buy air.

[Wt_know]

the most probable exit plan is a RM500K terrace house in JB near 2nd link

 

car and property are all the same, they are expenses. just that the latter is being more artifically inflated since the $ generated from it is fantastic for those in the game.

 

it is not 'your flat' that matters, it is, as a whole, the 900000 flat in consideration as the author said, that will be a too big of a pie to swallow.

 

besides, you will have to have real good market timing to capitalize on the 'irrational' market value. and assuming you do so successfully, you profitted that sum of few hundred thousand worth of banana notes, where you stay? another leasedhold? even freehold are subjected to the land acquistion act.

 

all these are artificially created thin air that people are buying aka 'title deed'. even one of the SM also publicly admitted to let the foreigners buy air.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Wt_know

[Sosaria]

Very sobering reading material. Unfortunately there are lots of other people out there, the elderly, the less educated, who will not be enlightened by it.

 

Anyway, as long as we are here, we still need a roof over our heads, and what choice is there but to buy into this scheme? Just hope that when the "music stops", we are not in a bad position.

[Wt_know]

many people are delusionised by the word property = long term investment = appreciate over years

i think many people also don't know that there is "margin call" for property where your flat value drops drastically (ie: flat market value < ouststanding loan)

 

In a classic property market, the asset changing hands is a freehold title to physical piece of land. Land has a natural scarcity; the title is in perpetuity. Neither of these critical attributes apply in the HDB market

Edited April 9, 2011 by Wt_know

[Happily1986]

Maybe that's the reason why the garment is turning the other way w.r.t. reseal HDB flats going north in terms of pricing. Eventually when the owners of these resale flats would have to get a new flat under SERS. That could happen anywhere between 10, 20, 30 or 40 years down the road. With the definite upward trending in pricing, if resale flats do not keep appreciating in value, then alot of people will LL have to fork out alot of hard cash to cover the difference in value of their "old" flats in hand and the new flat as per SERS. On a large scale, this is going to cause a huge social issue because at a certain point in time in the future, people will have to vacate their resale flats and we are talking about alot of people here.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Happily1986

[Itsec]

many people are delusionised by the word property = long term investment = appreciate over years

i think many people also don't know that there is "margin call" for property where your flat value drops drastically (ie: flat market value < ouststanding loan)

 

In a classic property market, the asset changing hands is a freehold title to physical piece of land. Land has a natural scarcity; the title is in perpetuity. Neither of these critical attributes apply in the HDB market

 

 

i dont think that will happen to hdb flat.. gov wont bankrupt its own citizen...definitely this is a big bubble..

 

 

imagine my colleague just got a EC @600-650k....and the bubble burst.. value drop to 300k... how the hell he top up the difference... hence, it wiser to take loan from gov..then the bank...

[Viceroymenthol]

This is a big ponzi scheme.

 

How to support the market price of those depreciating HDB flats?

 

Govt buy over.

 

Govt use what money to buy over?

 

You mr and mrs taxpayer money. Or if not enough, print more banana money lah.

 

$270billion. Wow. That is almost one year's GDP.

 

What YOU can do to counter this: use up every cent of your CPF allowed to buy property. When it goes up, sell it to the next dumb fella, take the money and run, ie: invest in overseas assets while it is still cheap. FYI that is what many local elites have been doing if you didn't know already.

 

God help you if you decide to plonk a big piece of your fortune on singapore property now thinking it will last forever. Singapore property is a big ponzi scheme and the good days when wealth can be multiplied are gone.

[Katz2282]

What YOU can do to counter this: use up every cent of your CPF allowed to buy property. When it goes up, sell it to the next dumb fella, take the money and run, ie: invest in overseas assets while it is still cheap. FYI that is what many local elites have been doing if you didn't know already.

 

Ah gong won't let anyone run away with his money, if you use CPF $ to buy property, when you sell it, you are expected to repay every single cent PLUS interest!

[Hosaybo]

That is why they need to bring in foriegners...... To become pr so that they can buy the flats. The sers can work only if people buy. The easy way to get people to buy is to import. The issue is how long can this go on?

[Piyopico]

Technically, the ponzi scheme is definitely in place. The last person holding the baby will be in deep trouble.

 

However, bear in mind, we are talking of events in the 20 to 40 years time time. The 270B would by then ballon to 1 trillion or more. Our NEXT GENERATION AND THE GENERATION AFTER THAT will be the ones holding the babies.

 

Those of you who still dune what is happening will be in for a big big surprise and shock when you are in your end stages of your life and you see your children and grandchildren find themselves in the exact situation that Japan is facing now. Their loans are multiple generation. The only way to avoid this is to not have a next generation.

 

When this problem come crashing down, and it may not be in the next five years, the party will point the finger at the opposition, whom I fully expect to form the next govt after two more elections. This s--t created by a short term myopic minister and endorsed by his colleagues and party will be death of our next generation.

 

Wake up, if you have not already done so. Educate yourself and read more, dun be stupid all your life. Do it for your next generation, please!

 

 

 

[Viceroymenthol]

Double post

Edited April 9, 2011 by Viceroymenthol

[Viceroymenthol]

Ah gong won't let anyone run away with his money, if you use CPF $ to buy property, when you sell it, you are expected to repay every single cent PLUS interest!

 

I am talking about the profit lah, brudder, the profit. Most of us are unlikely to see our CPF ever. They will just keep pushing the draw down date further and further.

 

The CPF sum alone is instrumental in helping your downpayment. But the profit from price appreciation is the big catch. And the amount of profit alone puts the CPF sum PLUS interest to shame.

 

I am sure all property gurus here have gone that way before. That is how we bought, sold, bought, sold, bought, sold and got rich the last decade, right? hohohohoho laughing all the way to the bank.... Let the next bigger fool who believes in singapore carry our babies....

[Zangetsu77]

$270billion. Wow. That is almost one year's GDP.

 

Singapore is one of the most indebted countries globally (within the top 10), no. 1 is Japan, we're worse than Ireland ithink and definitely worse than USA. We already owe 104% of the national GDP. However, the debt is largely owed to its own people - that's right, it's CPF monies payable to people.

 

However, if the population starts to age (like now), it will be a matter of 10 to 15 years (i estimate) before there are less people contributing (as less younger people working) as opposed to retirees withdrawing. So naturally minimum sum must also go up in time to come, as its also a matter of time before the CPF board interest rates start to fall. Surpluses and investment returns are used to pay off these liabilities to retiring Singaporeans, but it doesn't seem to be catching up fast enough.

 

So how? Quantitative easing in time to come? That may actually support asset prices, coz chicken rice will probably cost S$100.