I think recession coming so planning to sell HDB Flat

[Picopico]

I believe the downturn will hit in the next 12 months. Am thinking of selling my 5 rm flat in exchange for a cheap 3rm flat or just cash out and wait. Have got alternative accomodation.

 

However it seems the prices of HDB flats are seemingly very resilient. With the Govt's policy of further increasing the FT numbers beyond the 1M mark, maybe the prices may not dip so much.

 

Inflation is oso another big concern. So holding onto cash if the expected recession does not materialise will be a big mistake.

 

What do you guys think?

[Mean76]

Bro,

 

You sell high, you also buy high .... 3 room flat no longer cheap as you think now.

[Altivo]

recession coming so sell flat.... hmmm... are things going so bad for you?

[Picopico]

No, just wanted to cash out and buy back when it is 30% cheaper. If it happens.....

 

Was thinking dun wanna wait around and do nothing as the boom and bust cycle repeats itself.

[Picopico]

Ya, thatz why may just cash out and wait.

[Sfhuang]

What makes you think property prices will be 30% cheaper even if recession hits. There will always be demand for housing in land scarce Singapore, even if the economy is not doing well.

[Perrier]

Sell only if you dun need to buy now.

 

no point selling high but also buy high.

[Picopico]

Of course not guaranteed. But my existing flat rised about 30% in the past two years.

 

Going back down again not far fetched.

[Altivo]

hmmm. Buy 5 room or 3 room? Frankly speaking, prices will not drop that much like 30%... at most, it increase slowly. High fuel costs which is the mother of all #%$& will inevitably raise the prices of everything. This includes the construction costs as well. Also, during recession, HDB flats will hold the price better than private property. Why? Cos everyone needs a roof but not everyone needs an expensive roof

 

Unless you're talking about the high-end private properties. Cos for them, even a slight drop of 5% for a 2 mio property equates to 100k. That one, you can buy and sell if you've the money.

[Picopico]

Yap, can dun buy.

 

But very difficult to call regarding the timing of a recession and how bad it can be.

 

Just that I am surprised property prices(except for high end units) are so resilient with all the current problems.

 

Always make mistake in not selling my shares when it is high, so turned my thoughts to the flat now. But I guess this option is only workable and avail to those who can sell and not buy a replacement unit...........................................

[Picopico]

Not in that category yet.

 

20% to 30% profit on a 450K flat is still not bad. This is also considering the chance that it could dip back to 350K in a matter of probably two years? That will be the time the market is flooded with new completion of private flats and many upgraders will have to sell their HDB.

 

Anyone think likewise?

[Sfhuang]

To each his own I guess ... but I don't see any drastic drop in prices if recession hit. At most 5-10% drop in my opinion.

[Picopico]

Hmmm ......... that is what I fear. Or it may even go up somemore, then I really self pawned.

 

[inlinesix]

I believe the downturn will hit in the next 12 months. Am thinking of selling my 5 rm flat in exchange for a cheap 3rm flat or just cash out and wait. Have got alternative accomodation.

 

However it seems the prices of HDB flats are seemingly very resilient. With the Govt's policy of further increasing the FT numbers beyond the 1M mark, maybe the prices may not dip so much.

 

Inflation is oso another big concern. So holding onto cash if the expected recession does not materialise will be a big mistake.

 

What do you guys think?

What do u 1 2 do wif d cash on hand? It will devalue over time as inflation might b as hi as 8% tis yr. Even though economy has slow down, govt will not let it go into stagflation.

 

Currently, even risk free interest rate will not adequately offset inflation.

[Wreckwrx]

My experience with selling a 5rm flat is that big flats are quite hard to move right now. People prefer smaller flats like 4rm or 3rm.... Those en-bloc dudes have all already found places to stay in already, so no one is going to pay silly price for a 5rm flat these days.

 

As such, the price differential between the two may not be very significant unless your existing flat is in a mature estate and you are looking for a smaller place that is much further away.

 

An alternative is for you to rent out your 5rm flat and and you rent a smaller place in return. The rental mkt is still pretty strong and the asking for a 5rm rental can be quite criminal....

 

Afterall u r prepared to stay in a 3rm. The diff in rent can be betwn $400 - $700. Imagine u get extra $400/ month.... that can help to settle your petrol bills already. And you don't run the risk of getting caught out by the market forces.

[Ticklish8]

Buying or selling of flat is not like buying or selling share.

 

Singapore economy definitelylah affected. Even MM turn bearish. Remember his golden years period prediction?

 

Germany n France, Japan already experience quarter contraction. Singapore akan datang. Definitely cannot escape.

 

HDB price holding up because of the PR and the hot money Singapore is attracting. Just look at HDB Resale market figure. As long as these PR, Foreign workers find Singapore attractive (ie they haven't kena retrench yet) HDB market should hold n not drop 2 much. But I am not that confident that the economy will hold. It will be one bloody nasty downturn.

 

PS the bottom is when US housing market stabilize.....according to Alan G....

As long as the market don't stabilize..... u can wait for the U turn recovery long long long time....

 

PS Singapore economy holding up because of the construction industry. N Govt pin to much hope on F1 and IR to succeed.....But tourism number already hit because Singapore is getting 2 expensive now....

[Ticklish8]

French economy reverse in Q2

 

PARIS - THE French economy suddenly recoiled under global pressures in the second quarter, contracting by 0.3 per cent, official data showed on Thursday, raising a strong prospect of recession.

 

At Global Equities, economist Marc Touati said: 'The French economy is not going through merely a soft spot, but is really in the process of driving into a recession at least as serious as the one in 1993.'

 

Economists focused on one supporting factor, a build-up of inventories, and said that, excluding this, output slumped by 0.6 per cent from the first-quarter level.

 

The statistics institute INSEE, which published the data, said the contraction was the first for nearly six years, since the fourth quarter of 2002.

 

Until now, INSEE had forecast that the economy would grow in the second quarter, by 0.2 per cent.

 

The data was a first estimate, subject to revision, and Insee revised downwards its previous estimate for growth in the first quarter to 0.4 per cent from 0.5 per cent.

 

French Economy Minister Lagarde, said the contraction had been expected but the data was not good.

 

She said the data arose from the sluggish international economic climate 'rises in the prices of raw materials, weakness of the dollar' and inflation.

 

Provisional data from Insee also showed that the number of salaried employees fell by 0.1 per cent during the quarter, but was still on course for an annual rise of 1.1 per cent over 2007.

 

Mr Lagarde acknowledged that there might be less job creation this year than last year.

 

Economists said that the figures showed the loss of 12,200 jobs in the open market sector of the economy.

 

They forecast that the unemployment rate would rise, from 7.2 per cent, with the result that concern about jobs would take over as a depressor of key consumer spending just as inflation looked set to ease with an easing of raw materials prices.

 

They also warned that French budget overspending was now likely to exceed its target and was on course to surpass European Union and eurozone limits of 3.0 per cent of national output.

 

'Overall, these figures raise a real question of economic policy for Europeans,' commented economist Nicolas Bouzou at consultants Asteres.

 

'The United States created the crisis and it is Europe which has the recession. We come back to the same essential question: how do we strengthen the potential for growth in the euroland economy?'

 

At Xerfi consultants, Alexander Law said: 'There is cause for worry. Gross domestic product is falling back, consumption stagnating, service activity weakening, employment worsening, households have the blues and businesses are doubtful.

 

'In this context ... let's be honest, the third quarter is already compromised.' -- AFP

[Ticklish8]

German economy contracts

 

BERLIN - GERMANY'S economy contracted for the first time for nearly four years in the second quarter of 2008, data showed on Thursday, as demand for its exports fell and inflation hit consumer confidence.

 

The German economy, which accounts for about a third of eurozone output, shrank by 0.5 per cent compared to performance in the first three months of the year, the statistics office said.

 

The reading for growth in the first quarter was also revised downwards to 1.3 per cent from the office's earlier estimate of 1.5 per cent.

 

Taken as a whole, the German economy expanded 0.8 per cent in the first six months. Chancellor Angela Merkel's government is forecasting an expansion of around 1.7 per cent for the whole year.

 

The figures 'point to real economic difficulties ahead,' Commerzbank economist Joerg Kraemer said.

 

'The leading indicators have meanwhile fallen sharply, suggesting that a hard landing is on the cards - although not as severe as in Spain or the UK,' Kraemer said.

 

A string of recent data and sentiment indicators meant that economists had been fully expecting Germany's gross domestic product to have pulled back in the second quarter, and in fact many were expecting an even larger contraction.

 

Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expected on average GDP to have fallen back 0.7 per cent. Last week a figure of minus one per cent was even doing the rounds.

 

The last time German output fell back was in the third quarter of 2004, when it shrank 0.2 per cent.

 

Figures also out on Thursday confirmed that inflation in Germany hit a 15-year-high of 3.3 per cent high in July, driven by rampant energy and food prices.

 

The two sets of data illustrate the dilemma facing the European Central Bank. In order to keep a lid on inflation it cannot risk lowering interest rates, but high borrowing costs in turn put a lid on economic growth. -- AFP