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Private property prices... Up or Down?

Kelfinity

By Kelfinity,
in Property Buzz

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Invigorated

Invigorated

Supercharged

If one feels bold and a little reckless, by all means listen to Jack Ma.

If one prefers to be thoughtful and take incremental small steps one at a time, look no further than Warren Buffett. [:)]

Agree, contrasty western and eastern philosophies at play?

 

In Singapore, with all the government controls, i wonder how much we can go to either extremes or would it be better to be a little of both?

 

Be too reckless and the govt punishes u with ssd. Be too thoughtful and before u know it, policies change against ur favour, like announcements on absd and tdsr.

 

I think jack ma's msg can be a lot more tactful, some people do live in abject poverty and there's only so much they can do. Though i guess his point is that it takes anyone to find excuses but it takes someone to find time and do it. Not sure how much this is so relevant to property.

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Invigorated

Invigorated

Supercharged

Would say is a good move by the Gov. A lot of expectation of CM removal, esp absd in the budget but alas, most waiting for that are disappointed. The recent slight relaxation helps to send a reply to affirm people on their stand on the housing market but yet, also says that they are flexible and will react accordingly to changing conditions.

 

Too much speculation on the market is not good for market as it may build up inherent demand like a dam. Imagine a whole group of buyers accumulating $$$$ waiting for the absd to be removed? It will just cause a knee Jerk reaction on prices if eventually happen. At least with this slight Softening, some of those waiting may pull the trigger.

Agree with the last point.

 

Yes the softening of the cm itself wouldn't have a strong impact on the market.

 

It is the message sent when such a measure that would affect the market. Some of those who are sitting on the fence may start to make the move.

 

Some have said they will make a move when govt starts loosening measures. Will they, or say only?

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Icedbs

Icedbs

Turbocharged
(edited)

If one feels bold and a little reckless, by all means listen to Jack Ma.

If one prefers to be thoughtful and take incremental small steps one at a time, look no further than Warren Buffett.  [:)]

 

Taking small incremental steps one at a time is still taking action.  That's ok.

 

What Jack Ma refers to is people who choose to wait and wait and wait, never taking action. Their life is about waiting. They watch the world fly pass, thinking why good opportunities only happen to others but not them. Then they spend time complaining that the system is not fair to them.  But when there are opportunities, they think it is too good to be true. 

 

It is a mindset issue. It is not about capability or experience. 

Edited by Icedbs
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merc280v6

merc280v6

6th Gear

Taking small incremental steps one at a time is still taking action. That's ok.

 

What Jack Ma refers to is people who choose to wait and wait and wait, never taking action. Their life is about waiting. They watch the world fly pass, thinking why good opportunities only happen to others but not them. Then they spend time complaining that the system is not fair to them. But when there are opportunities, they think it is too good to be true.

 

It is a mindset issue. It is not about capability or experience.

Hmmm ... sounds very much like the "30%" here in MCF!
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Jamesc

Jamesc

Hypersonic

I need to lose 30 kg to fit in there.

 

The building is 3 feet at the narrowest.

 

You are more than 3 feet wide?

 

Head or body or both?

 

:D

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Kusje

Kusje

Supersonic

The building is 3 feet at the narrowest.

 

You are more than 3 feet wide?

 

Head or body or both?

 

:D

 

It's some other part la. Sticks out too much sometimes.

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/borrowing-money-against-property-easier-now-for-retirees

Borrowing money against property easier now for retirees

Mar 11, 2017

 

To date, the TDSR has applied to drawing down loans against the value of a home - known as mortgage equity withdrawal loans.

 

Under the change, the TDSR will no longer apply to such loans where the ratio of the loans, including any existing loans, to the property's value is 50 per cent or less. For example, a person with a $1 million home and a $100,000 outstanding housing loan can borrow up to $400,000 - that is, up to half the $1 million value of the property.

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/property/stamp-duty-tweak-may-give-market-a-fillip

Stamp duty tweak may give market a fillip

Mar 11, 2017

 

Realtor Kelvin Thong narrowly missed out on benefiting from the changes. He exercised his option to purchase a penthouse in West Coast yesterday.

 

That means he is still subject to the rules which stipulate that if he sells his property within a year, he would have to pay a 16 per cent SSD. If he sells it within two years, it would be 12 per cent, while within three years, it would be 8 per cent and within four years, it would be 4 per cent.

 

Mr Thong is not too disappointed as he intends to live in his home over the long term, but "would have liked the flexibility to upgrade or sell earlier without paying the stamp duty", he said.

 

However, he said he was now more motivated to hunt for a good second property to invest in.

 

The 4 percentage point cut in SSD is quite significant. If I manage to get a property at 30 per cent below market price, I would be able to make an 18 per cent profit even after paying the 12 per cent stamp duty if I hold it for less than a year."

 

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Mercs

Mercs

Hypersonic

No matter how some will still try to twist and prata, the simple fact remains ...CMs is less cooling now than before.

Will it help to spur the already huge demand to action asap? Probably, but not by much.

 

While the govt have calibrated a 'soft landing' to prices with CMs, this could be a start to a 'soft landing' to easing of CMs.

With the fed rate hike in the horizon and to boost the economy, more easing may be on the cards moving forward.

 

So like I've mention before, expect the unexpected, more may just change overnight, as shown.

 

Huat ah [:p]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/surprise-tweaks-in-property-cooling-measures-seen-signalling-further-unwinding

Surprise tweaks in property cooling measures seen signalling further unwinding

Mar 11, 2017

 

(The housing market may well be bottoming, making buyers more sanguine about prospects of a price recovery)

 

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/quick-takes-some-property-measures-eased-for-first-time-since-2009-more-to-follow

Some property measures eased for first time since 2009, more to follow?

 

"With the first easing (since 2009), there is now greater anticipation for more easing to follow. The Singapore private property prices has been on a cushioned decline in the last three years, an outcome that is likely in line with what the government has set out to achieve 8 years ago. We continue to believe that the government will remain steadfast to its property market measures unless there are 2 significant changes in the environment: 1) sharply higher interest rates and 2) surge in domestic unemployment.

 

"We continue to see conducive macro-economic conditions underpinning the Singapore property market and we believe that only if we see markedly higher interest rates and/or a surge in domestic unemployment, then the government may ease the more restrictive property cooling measures."

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

One possibility for this move at this juncture is that URA index has started to go up.

 

The move effectively can signal as the end of correction from a policy as well as results angle.

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Wind30

Wind30

Turbocharged

One possibility for this move at this juncture is that URA index has started to go up.

 

The move effectively can signal as the end of correction from a policy as well as results angle.

You do understand the above does not make sense. If the prices are already moving up, there is no reason for any relaxation of cm.

 

Government policy is usually trying to keep the prices stable and against the external factors like extreme Low interest rate.

 

Prices are falling and it's a fact. Ask anyone who has transacted recently. Did they pay a higher or lower price vs three months back?

 

I think probably the government is worried the prices are falling too fast and with the upcoming fed rate hike, they are trying to stabilise the market.

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Invigorated

Invigorated

Supercharged
(edited)

You do understand the above does not make sense. If the prices are already moving up, there is no reason for any relaxation of cm.

 

Government policy is usually trying to keep the prices stable and against the external factors like extreme Low interest rate.

 

Prices are falling and it's a fact. Ask anyone who has transacted recently. Did they pay a higher or lower price vs three months back?

 

I think probably the government is worried the prices are falling too fast and with the upcoming fed rate hike, they are trying to stabilise the market.

Taken from srx, based on ura resale data: https://www.srx.com.sg/research

post-29998-0-90905200-1489294996_thumb.jpg

post-29998-0-43480300-1489295007_thumb.jpg

Edited by Invigorated
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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)

price only fall for those GCB and no $2.5M no talk property

mass market is either same same or rise abit

look at the $1M-ish property

before and after CM ... same same but different lor

Edited by Wt_know
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

You do understand the above does not make sense. If the prices are already moving up, there is no reason for any relaxation of cm.

 

Government policy is usually trying to keep the prices stable and against the external factors like extreme Low interest rate.

 

Prices are falling and it's a fact. Ask anyone who has transacted recently. Did they pay a higher or lower price vs three months back?

 

I think probably the government is worried the prices are falling too fast and with the upcoming fed rate hike, they are trying to stabilise the market.

The private property market serves too many agenda to be analyzed directly. Some of these include tax, reserves, debt, economy, productivity, politics, social leveling, aspiration etc. Edited by Showster
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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic

The private property market serves too many agenda to be analyzed directly. Some of these include tax, reserves, debt, economy, productivity, politics, social leveling, aspiration etc.

easy to analyse

ah gong is doing all he can to hold the market !!!

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