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Private property prices... Up or Down?

Kelfinity

By Kelfinity,
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

Good analysis of the trend of demand. Generally it's true that for most developments the 1BR will get sold out first. There are several reasons for this.

 

Another thing to consider is the date of TOP. The number of sales can be projected to see if the developer can confidently sell all before CSC.

 

This mode of selling is more rational.

 

Is the preliminary success of Sturdee Residences over?

 

This morning, we examine closely the sales of Sturdee Residences.

 

http://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/content/sturdee-residences-officially-launch-slightly-higher-prices

 

On 29 Apr, an article on the Edge property website reported a 40% uptake during a VIP preview launch of Sturdee residences. This represents 122 units sold out of a total of 305 units.

 

Looking through the information available on Edge property website and the official Sturdee Residences website, the sales statistics (as at 12 May) now stands at 54.4% sold. Another 14.4% uptake within 2 weeks. All seems well. But is it?

 

attachicon.gifSturdee Statistics as at 12 May.jpg

 

Here is a look at the breakdown of sales in terms of unit size:

 

attachicon.gifSturdee Residences - breakdown in sales in unit size.jpg

 

Close to half of the sales (47.5%) are generated through the sales of 1-bedders, followed by 2-bedders (34.5%), making up 82% of total sales so far.

 

Here's the problem. Much of Sturdee Residences sales are generated through the sales of 1- and 2-bedders.

 

With the smaller units almost fully sold (i.e. 9 1-bedders unsold, representing 3% of total no. of units, and 49 2-bedders unsold, representing 16% of total no. of units), the developer has to start moving the less popular bigger-sized units (108 3-bedders and above unsold - representing 35.4% of total no. of units) to continue its sales momentum, else its success simply comes to a halt, like many other developments (Case in point: Alex residences, as illustrated in my earlier post in the thread "New Bargains to be had").

 

Over the course of this weekend, more sales can be expected, thus I might be proven wrong, but history has a strong tendency to repeat itself.

 

Watch this space, for another update on Sturdee Residences from yours truly in the near future.

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tenyawph

tenyawph

Turbocharged

Good analysis of the trend of demand. Generally it's true that for most developments the 1BR will get sold out first. There are several reasons for this.

 

Another thing to consider is the date of TOP. The number of sales can be projected to see if the developer can confidently sell all before CSC.

 

This mode of selling is more rational.

 

 

Hi. Can you project the number of sales for Alex residences for the next 2 years? Thank you.
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Showster

Showster

Twincharged
(edited)

Hi. Can you project the number of sales for Alex residences for the next 2 years? Thank you.

If based on current trend it should sell another 5%. When TOP or near maybe another 10-15%.

 

Left 25% will be either slowly sell mode, or dependent on the mega environment.

 

The whole sales that Alex achieved in 2.5years is equivalent to that achieved by Sturdee in a matter of weeks.

 

Nonetheless, it is very unlikely to sell out the huge quantum large units as you described.

 

The reason for what we are observing now is not lack of willingness to buy, but lack of ability to buy. Taken together, ability plus willingness equates demand.

Edited by Showster
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Hosaybo

Hosaybo

6th Gear

You can see that bigger units buyers tend to be for self stay, esp more than 3 bedrooms cos in the market, very difficult to rent 4 bedders out as the pool of tenants are limited.

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Newbie26

Newbie26

Hypersonic

While it is generally true that 1 Br units tend to get sold out first, way before penthouses (always the last to go)

times have changed,

The property investment climate and strategies have changed based on all the reasons that have been discussed previously in this thread.

In good times, all the 1 Br/studios will be sold out before or on launch day. Usually no chance if you do not prebook or go for ballot.

But now, a no of new developments which are near MRT still have 1 Br units left (Poiz, Sturdee etc) eventhough quantum is still very small, 600k

The reason is that the appetite for this has dropped and competition for 1 Br is and will be very stiff for rentals compared to a decent size 2 Br.

The big quantum units outside CCR always hard and the last to clear whether in good or bad times

 

Good analysis of the trend of demand. Generally it's true that for most developments the 1BR will get sold out first. There are several reasons for this.

Another thing to consider is the date of TOP. The number of sales can be projected to see if the developer can confidently sell all before CSC.

This mode of selling is more rational.
 

 

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

While it is generally true that 1 Br units tend to get sold out first, way before penthouses (always the last to go)

times have changed,

The property investment climate and strategies have changed based on all the reasons that have been discussed previously in this thread.

In good times, all the 1 Br/studios will be sold out before or on launch day. Usually no chance if you do not prebook or go for ballot.

But now, a no of new developments which are near MRT still have 1 Br units left (Poiz, Sturdee etc) eventhough quantum is still very small, 600k

The reason is that the appetite for this has dropped and competition for 1 Br is and will be very stiff for rentals compared to a decent size 2 Br.

The big quantum units outside CCR always hard and the last to clear whether in good or bad times

Primarily is the impact of ABSD.

 

1st property 0%, 2nd 7%, 3rd onwards 10%.

 

Therefore for 1st and 2nd property buyers may tend to buy the biggest they can afford before considering 1BR from the 3rd.

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Showster

Showster

Twincharged

SG already fell quite some distance from 2013.

 

If the Govt garang followed HK from 2013-2016, we will definitely have a pronounced fall now.

 

Looks like we are far richer than Hong Kong and not as affected by Chinese slowdown.

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

 

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Throttle2

Throttle2

Supersonic

Looks like we are far richer than Hong Kong and not as affected by Chinese slowdown.

 

Hong Kong Property Market in 'Free Fall': Hayman's Bass

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-11/hayman-s-bass-says-hong-kong-property-market-is-in-free-fall

HongKong is a country with higher market volatility compared to Singapore.

Hongkongers are higher risk takers

So can lose more

But can also make more.

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Jamesc

Jamesc

Hypersonic
(edited)

bro, be careful not to over train until like this hor

 

e21b26ea4b3ffadb9f4cafd93deafb79.jpg

 

No worries this will never happen to @Porker.

 

He is more a one hand man.  [thumbsup]

 

:D  

post-23002-0-50634300-1463234237.jpg

Edited by Jamesc
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Porker

Porker

Turbocharged

No worries this will never happen to @Porker.

 

He is more a one hand man.  [thumbsup]

 

:D  

 

I'm ambidextrous  :a-fun:

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Sabian

Sabian

Turbocharged
(edited)

I'm ambidextrous  :a-fun:

Is that why @Turboflat4 always has a smile when he's with you?  :ph34r:

Edited by Sabian
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HP_Lee

HP_Lee

5th Gear

Things maybe turning around soon...
 Nowadays , my generation and younger ones are internet savvy. Agents may have to get prepare for lower earnings.

 

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/3-solid-reasons-why-may-010438299.html

 

 

i go view 700sqft 2br mickey mouse condo, no dignity to talk to property agent [bigcry]

 

Top property agents earn 66% more than average Singaporean

 

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HP_Lee

HP_Lee

5th Gear

We are listed as one of the highest public debt country in the world. There is a danger of trigger down effects on our currency in longer term. Hence, this may affect property value and increase of repayment of interest. So far rating agencies still put us with high hopes. To me, it is something to concern about for longer term. 

 

Public debt as percentage of GDP: 97.77%

 

http://www.msn.com/en-sg/money/finance/the-20-countries-with-the-most-public-debt/ss-BBsYuLl?ocid=mailsignoutmd#image=2

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Wt_know

Wt_know

Supersonic
(edited)

10,000,000 .... huat ah!

highlighted town for T2 ... CCK [thumbsup] ... no $1M no sell ... [laugh]

post-7984-0-39345700-1463382524_thumb.png

post-7984-0-24676900-1463382529_thumb.png

Edited by Wt_know
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