Private property prices... Up or Down?

[Showster]

Same. In Jan 16 I also advocated stocks.

 

I was unlucky not to have enough funds in 2009. I also hope for 2009 to come again.

 

But Govt has also engineered a pseudo-crash from 2013-2016 in some sectors of housing. Now is the time to go into some of them I feel. The reserve power is stored in the CMs. At the very least, there was frozen prices in all sectors and pent up demand for 3 years from your 7-10 years normal cycle.

 

 

2009 i never waited, bot i  april 2009 when nobody dared. made enough. luckily during such crisis times, most dont dare to do much, instead they complain when prices go up.

 

jan 2016 i bot stocks when nobody dared, now they complain prices up. i rather do something then spend my life complaining y i no luck or garmen never help me

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Showster

[Wyfitms]

Same. In Jan 16 I also advocated stocks.

 

I was unlucky not to have enough funds in 2009. I also hope for 2009 to come again.

 

But Govt has also engineered a pseudo-crash from 2013-2016 in some sectors of housing. Now is the time to go into some of them I feel. The reserve power is stored in the CMs. At the very least, there was frozen prices in all sectors and pent up demand for 3 years from your 7-10 years normal cycle.

 

I am quite risk averse and for investment, i don't think this is the right time to go in yet. The kind of crisis in 09 has yet to happen and it looks like it might happen

 

To me, enter once in my lifetime is enough, liao. Just keep one investment property to hedge inflation when i retire good enough.

[Showster]

Nothing against that strategy as you are already hedged.

 

I have explained before the nature of the crisis in 09 is very different from that in 16. The outcomes will also be greatly different (my view).

 

A 2009 kind of crisis is only likely sometime in the midst of the next bull run when nobody is expecting it (my view). Maybe 2024-2026.

 

 

 

I am quite risk averse and for investment, i don't think this is the right time to go in yet. The kind of crisis in 09 has yet to happen and it looks like it might happen

 

To me, enter once in my lifetime is enough, liao. Just keep one investment property to hedge inflation when i retire good enough.

 

[Wyfitms]

well depends as i used to do prop research in a certain bank here, so ive more access to quantitative info than most. Every 7-10yrs got global recession n prices always crash, so y not just wait?

 

Sure HDB is no brainer for pt 1 considering SG is d mostly succesful country since 1965, but that aint gona happen next 50yrs IMO... like i said no more LKY, i dont believe d SG economy miracle will ever b repeated again due to politics. Just see all d pple here complaining abt prices going up. all want to see it go down so which politican dare to do otherwise.

 

so u were an analyst, the wendy koh type? Do u foresee another kind of 2009 crash coming for SG property?

[Duckduck]

so u were an analyst, the wendy koh type? Do u foresee another kind of 2009 crash coming for SG property?

 

wendy koh d analyst or property agent? lol

 

2009 type crash will occur if got global crash lor. earlier this yr almost kena but recovered. i duno when it may happen i just react accordingly. plenty of time to short mkt if its clear its happening.

 

like right now its clear US financial stocks r a good short, n so r tech. Oil on other hand continues to show support, so in general commodities r recovering, also confirmed by TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protected) bull run

 

d problem w fundamental analysts r that they r good at valuing d general mkt current prices, but not good at exact timing, as in theyll tell u prices r overvalued, but they may be 2yrs early or late.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Duckduck

[Wyfitms]

wendy koh d analyst or property agent? lol

 

2009 type crash will occur if got global crash lor. earlier this yr almost kena but recovered. i duno when it may happen i just react accordingly. plenty of time to short mkt if its clear its happening.

 

like right now its clear US financial stocks r a good short, n so r tech. Oil on other hand continues to show support, so in general commodities r recovering, also confirmed by TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protected) bull run

 

d problem w fundamental analysts r that they r good at valuing d general mkt current prices, but not good at exact timing, as in theyll tell u prices r overvalued, but they may be 2yrs early or late.

 

hahaa, i don't know any wendy koh agent

 

yes, most investors are able to 'feel' the fundamentals, but the key which is timing could be off. I am not so good with timing and paid for some expensive tuition, but u come out learning something new LOL

 

impressed with your calls, and thanks for always sharing them! 

[HP_Lee]

Is good to see MCFers here are more discerning. Do not read to much on short-term statistics, like what happen recent to property market and those predictions from property gurus and analysts. They are as good as those man-on-the-streets who are doing extra homework. One just have to kick-tyres and never depend just agents. Sad to say, many for commission and close fast.       

 

 

That's where indices are misleading.

Flats selling way higher than valuation are averaged with those selling below to give a net index of -1%.

I wouldn't trust indices actually.

 

[Throttle2]

from my London KF property consultant

 

But i think this is the last year, she will send to me after sending to me for 3 yrs.

Becos i never buy anything.

 

Muayhahhaha

[car50]

You are a very Lucky Duckie

Please shower some of your lucky duckie feathers on us please

Is it time to buy in 2016, 2017 or 2018 and beyond??

 

 

 

2009 i never waited, bot i  april 2009 when nobody dared. made enough. luckily during such crisis times, most dont dare to do much, instead they complain when prices go up.

 

jan 2016 i bot stocks when nobody dared, now they complain prices up. i rather do something then spend my life complaining y i no luck or garmen never help me

 

For properties, many wise men have said.

 

If we Wait till prices drop.

 

How many years of our Life can we afford to wait??

 

What happens if cycle is 10-15 years?

 

 

Firstly 2009, wait for 2010. 2010 wait for 2012. 2012, wait for 2014. 2014, wait for 2015. 2015, wait for 2016.

 

Now 2016, wait for 2018. 2018, wait for 2020. Wait then price will drop. If don't drop, wait some more?

 

Govt will invite people to buy HDB and HDB owners to buy private?

 

Good luck bro.

 

[Porker]

plugged by the Big Guy up there

 

You finally admitting you're gay 

[Showster]

No need so long.

 

The "wisest" man always say, "Just wait a few months more..."

 

But he also admits that being smart (wise) cannot beat being lucky.

 

 

 

For properties, many wise men have said.

 

If we Wait till prices drop.

 

How many years of our Life can we afford to wait??

 

What happens if cycle is 10-15 years?

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by Showster

[tenyawph]

"A tale of two cities..eh I mean two developments"

 

It has been a dream for many Singaporeans to own a landed property.  However, it can be very expensive to buy one, relative to a condo unit or an apartment unit. 

 

A few years back, there was a trend in which buyers gravitate towards cluster landed housing (strata landed homes accounted for 21% share of overall landed homes transacted in 2013).  This drops to about 15% in 2015.

 

What are strata landed homes?  They are semi-detached or terrace houses that are built within a condo development, which comes with the advantage of a private car park but with access to full condo facilities.  (Non-strata landed property means the land belongs to a single owner and not shared with others).

 

For more insight into cluster homes, see the link below:

 

http://www.theedgeproperty.com.sg/content/strata-landed-homes-still-niche-property-and-%E2%80%98value-money%E2%80%99-propositions

 

Tonight, let's look at two developments (Kingsford Waterbay and Springhill) for comparison, a recent one still under construction, and the other which has obtained TOP almost a decade ago, respectively:

 

Kingsford Waterbay, at Upper Serangoon View, is an interesting 99-year leasehold development (tenure of land from Mar 2014), as it is built on two parcels of land adjacent to each other, purchased through the URA land sales.  As a result, the site area is relatively large and elongated, consisting an area of 293,806 sq ft, and has a 400 metres frontage to the Serangoon River (similar to Archipelago, with a 400 metres frontage to the Bedok Reservoir).  It is a 1,165 unit development.

 

For sports lovers, an important aspect of this development is that it is built next to the Serangoon park connector alongside the Serangoon river, which allows easy access to the Riverside walk (in Sengkang and Punggol) in the north, leading all the way to Coney Island.  Those east-facing units has the view of the river with an unobstructed view of the forest beyond and overseeing the Paya Lebar Airbase (which will be redeveloped in 10 years' time).  These units cost more on a $ psf basis than the west-facing units (which have to contend with the afternoon sun).

 

Now let's focus on the strata-landed units found in this development.  it has 6 strata terrace houses, and 2 semi-detached houses (not as many as the Archipelago which has 24 units of 3-storey strata houses).    At the time of writing, 2 terraces houses and 1 semi-detached houses have been sold.   Each comes with its own private car park.  I shall mention about the remaining semi-detached house available for sale.  It is 2-storey high and has a built-up area of 1,593 sq ft (148 sqm) and is selling for $1,880,000, translating to $1,180 psf.  It has 3 bedrooms, and is facing the river.  For facilities, there are 3 gyms, a 50-metre lap pool, and a variety of smaller-size pools, a few gardens with different themes, a childcare centre, and 6 commercial shops. 

 

To get quickly to downtown, it is a short 3-minute drive to the KPE via Buangkok East Drive, which takes about 20 minutes to reach Suntec City. 

 

Is it value for money?

 

Let's compare this with another development, albeit an older one.  Springhill, a 99-year leasehold cluster housing development (land tenure from 2002), at Sembawang Walk, in district 27.  It obtained TOP in 2008, and consists of 115 terrace units.   What makes this development stands out is its gigantic build-up area, which ranges from 2,700 sq ft to almost 4,000 sq ft.  Each unit is a 4-bedder and comes with a private basement car park, 3-storeys level (not including the basement level) and an attic.

 

It has all the basic condo facilities, such as clubhouse, gym, swimming pool, playground and BBQ pits.   Due to the smaller number of units in this development, the monthly maintenance fee is relatively high at $500+.  

 

To get to downtown, one has to contend with the usually congested Sembawang road, followed by the SLE and the CTE which will take at least half-an-hour to reach Orchard Road.

 

There have been 5 resale transactions for this development this year, for units with sizes ranging from 2,766 sq ft to 3,175 sq ft, at transacted prices between $1,290,000 to $1,438,000, translated to a range of $453 psf to $485 psf. 

 

In terms of absolute pricing, it will seem that the cluster houses at Springhill is better value for money, given the huge disparity in the $ psf (Kingsford Waterbay is almost 2.5 times more).  However, there are many factors, besides $ psf  to consider.

 

If one is to throw in the 4,000 sq ft semi-detached houses in Archipelago for comparison which cost >$3M each, this makes Springhill and Kingsford Waterbay look cheap, on a quantum basis.

 

 

Conclusion:

 

It all boils down to what one is looking for.  Each has its own merits, with Springhill affording larger living spaces, is nearer to JB for those who likes to go there regularly, while Kingsford Waterbay (terrace houses and semi-detached house) is situated at a better location for quicker access to downtown, and comes a very nice river and unobstructed forest view, with more condo facilities. 

 

Whatever is your needs, be it an investment or a home for retirement, at the end of the day, with the property market in a steadily downwards trend, make sure you have the dough when you get one.  No dough, no talk.      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Throttle2]

 

Whatever is your needs, be it an investment or a home for retirement, at the end of the day, with the property market in a steadily downwards trend, make sure you have the dough when you get one. No dough, no talk.

Most importantly

[Throttle2]

i thought u going to wash the toilet

Yes wear solid gold Rolex to wash toilet.

 

[Newbie26]

Gold Rolex Brings Luck

 

BUT....

 

 

 

 

Yes wear solid gold Rolex to wash toilet.

[Showster]

 

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by Showster

[Wyfitms]

You finally admitting you're gay 

 

 

i know u have been hoping i am gay. Sorry to disappoint you, give u a pic to put a smile on your face ok?

 

[car50]

But at the tend of the day potential also still needs some luck leh.

 

In football, so many touted as having the potential of the next Ronaldo, the next Messi...

But most kenna nipped in the bud.

 

In property, location with great potential may never get realised in 20-30 years or even a lifetime

Those who invested way ahead of time 10-20 years ago in punggol marina for example, need to wait a bit longer 

Those who anyhow unleash their potential may well get burned.