Private property prices... Up or Down?

[Showster]

Bank can repossess everything he has, including these properties and declare him bankrupt?

 

A few years later he will be back?

 

 

What happen if no taker in the auction ? 

 

[inlinesix]

GEM prices below. With $1.7M, Shunfu can buy 3 x 1-BR or 1 x 5 BR. Swee swee.

 

 

 

One-bedroom units sized from 452 sq ft will be priced between $578,000 and $741,000.

Two-bedroom units from 570 sq ft will be priced between $750,000 to $1.16 million. 

 

Three-bedroom units sized from 936 sq ft will cost around $1.2 million to $1.56 million. 

 

Four-bedroom units of 1,249 sq ft will be rolled out at prices from $1.66 million to $1.82 million.

 

Five-bedroom units of 1,313 sq ft will be in the range of $1.75 million to $1.91 million

 

Cash proceed will not come so fast hor.  Don't anyhow buy

 

[Showster]

That's why I said, rent for half a year first.

 

But licensed to kill, will definitely go into market.

 

Then some they and their children have some savings ready as well so they can act earlier.

 

Largely also depends on whether momentum is built up after this big enbloc. If some other huge site follow enbloc quite quickly, then the action may build up very fast.

 

Fingers crossed.

 

 

 

Cash proceed will not come so fast hor.  Don't anyhow buy
 

 

[Angcheek]

Bank can repossess everything he has, including these properties and declare him bankrupt?

 

A few years later he will be back?

I see..

 

Under such auction , will there be a minimum price or goes to highest bidder ?

[Showster]

Sure have reserve price. And unlikely affordable to 95% of population.

 

I see..

 

Under such auction , will there be a minimum price or goes to highest bidder ?

[Angcheek]

Sure have reserve price. And unlikely affordable to 95% of population.

 

 

that means , once goes under the hammer , it is as good as gone case 

[Showster]

that means , once goes under the hammer , it is as good as gone case

if don't meet reserve them keep back lor.

 

count as bad debt? Non performing loan?

[Wyfitms]

JUST IN: Manulife US REIT opens lower on the SGX in a lacklustre debut after Singapore's biggest IPO since August 2014.

Lol

I just attended a REIT panel discussion in NUS

hmmm how u find the price for 4 room

Price alone seems ok

But I am not very sure abt this developer evia

I also haven't seen the unit layout

So can't comment much

[Wt_know]

QJ sibei ON .... spore property jin ho jiak?

while driving listen to radio and one simi expert commented that enbloc purchase put a lot of financial stress on the bidder

Edited May 20, 2016 by Wt_know

[Blueray]

1,000 units on 400,000 sf of land at Shunfu.

 

last time 1,000 units was on 1,000,000 sf of land ... eg Mandarin Gardens, Bayshore Park ... 

 

those were the days ...

[Wt_know]

last time 10-15 floors ... now anyhow 40 floors ...

 

1,000 units on 400,000 sf of land at Shunfu.

 

last time 1,000 units was on 1,000,000 sf of land ... eg Mandarin Gardens, Bayshore Park ... 

 

those were the days ...

 

Edited May 20, 2016 by Wt_know

[Blackyv]

This QJ very active hor....

 

No wonder see this 'brand' everywhere around punggol and sengkang.... they are very active around this region.... chialat...

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/developer-with-an-eye-on-the-future

[Nav14]

This QJ very active hor....

 

No wonder see this 'brand' everywhere around punggol and sengkang.... they are very active around this region.... chialat...

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/developer-with-an-eye-on-the-future

We are getting "chinafied" in every way. Han Fook Wang was right when writing the article in ST on how we are heading in this direction.

This QJ very active hor....

 

No wonder see this 'brand' everywhere around punggol and sengkang.... they are very active around this region.... chialat...

 

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/developer-with-an-eye-on-the-future

We are getting "chinafied" in every way. Han Fook Wang was right when writing the article in ST on how we are hearing in this direction.

[tenyawph]

Pent-up demand.  Is it real?

 

If you read the property news regularly, you might come across this phrase "pent-up demand" used by some property developers in explaining why their particular developments are doing well in sales. 

 

Looking through this thread, I note that some bros are sceptical about this "pent-up demand" and attribute this to "market talk to push up sales", or simply "rubbish".  Are our bros right?

 

While it sounds silly to analyse this phrase (there is nothing else to analyse, is it?), I will like to bring this into a discussion, for this weekend entertainment, if you like.

 

In simple terms, "pent-up demand" refers to a demand that has not been able to be expressed or fulfilled, due to a reason. In our context, this refers to someone wanting to own a private property, but has been held back due to a variety of reasons, ranging from "scare to lose money on this one", "what happens if I lose a job and cannot afford the loan payments down the road", "why must I pay the buyer's ABSD?", "still waiting for a right development to come along", "Not located in my desired area", "I think the price is too high for my liking", etc.  So many are sitting on the fence, waiting for some event to happen, such as removal of the cooling measures, property market turn-around, developers cutting prices, etc.

 

Let me bring an analogy using the stock market.  The stock market is like the property market (except that the latter transacted volumes are lesser).  Everyone is happily trading, buying low and selling high, the next buyer is buying high and selling even higher, so on and so forth.  

 

Many investors started to open margin trading accounts (these are accounts that do not need to make full payment on shares purchased; it is a leverage tool in which a small amount of your own money, let's say x dollars, is used to buy 5x dollars of shares - the 4x dollars are borrowed from the stock brokerage that you opened the margin account with).  In a rising market, margin trading poses no problem, as the profits obtained from buying and selling shares is more than enough to pay off the interest payment incurred due to the borrowing of 4x dollars for the short duration of buy/sell. 

 

Due to the stock market's exuberance and fearing a stock market bubble will happen, the government decides to step in.  No more margin trading allowed (cooling measure).  Each share purchase must be fully funded by its purchaser.  The stock market's trading dries up and share prices go into a tailspin as demand for shares dropped dramatically. For 3 years, the stock market becomes rather subdued, as transaction volumes hit a 10-year low.  Suddenly, the government announced that margin trading is allowed once more.  The stock market becomes alive again.  Buyers swamped and snapped up shares like there is no tomorrow.  This is pent-up demand in action.

 

 

Coming back to the property market, after the government re-iterated that cooling measures are here to stay a while longer, are the recent success of sales for Cairnhill Nine, OUE Twin Peaks and Sturdee Residences considered as a pent-up demand?  

 

Let's look at the facts and examine if there is a pent-up demand (as defined by me, using the stock market analogy, Sorry!).

 

A recent article in Property guru website.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Developer sales down 36.2% from year ago

 

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2016/5/125228/developer-sales-down-36-2-from-year-ago

 

UPDATED: New private home sales in Singapore, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), fell by 11.6 percent to 745 units in April 2016, compared to the 843 units sold in the previous month, according to latest data published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Monday (16 May).

 

Year-on-year, developer sales plunged by 36.2 percent from the 1,167 units sold in April last year, data showed.

This comes despite the number of units launched rising to 900 in April from 682 units in March, noted DTZ.

 

“As the economy becomes more uncertain, and (with) the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) weighing on buyers’ decisions, more buyers prefer to stay put unless they find the project very attractive, in terms of its pricing and location.

“Notwithstanding, the release of May and June’s data will give a better indication on whether there is a further weakening of demand or not,” he added.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Statistics do not lie. 

 

Trading volumes (stock market), oops, I mean transacted volumes of the private properties have dropped year-on-year.   Based on my definition, I will hardly call the recent sales a pent-up demand.  Perhaps I am too harsh here.  Let's call it a pent-up demand from a tiny minority.

 

With the cooling measures still in place, we have to open our eyes big and see the overall big picture; lest we got blinded by what is happening right in front of us.  With the impending launch of the highly anticipated Stars of Kovan and Gem (Toa Payoh), let us wait for URA's next quarterly release of property prices and digest the sales for April to June 2016, before we make a judgement call.

 

The real pent-up demand

This will come when the government revises or removes some of the more punitive cooling measures.  When it happens, will history repeat itself?  Will we see a return of long queues of people lining up to book a unit (like in the 1990s) at launch time?       

 

[Yoongf]

I see..

 

Under such auction , will there be a minimum price or goes to highest bidder ?

Reserve price is usually 10% below valuation. Morgagee sales cant be so kelong to anyhow let go, the owner may sue the bank for being reckless in the disposal. Owner may not win the court case but the whole process of collating evidence of having done "due process" is simply not worth the risk.

Usually after the auction.. Interested parties can begin nego to reach a private treaty agreement. Then not consider morgagee sale right?

[Showster]

Accidentally praised under anonymous. I like your approach to convince and rationalise your viewpoints with real data, so here are mine for discussion as well. Have a great weekend!

 

To fully understand the term, you have to revisit classical definitions of supply and demand and match it with the string of dozens of minor and major adjustments to direct and indirect housing policies to orchestrate a soft landing.

 

Demand - willingness and ability to buy a goods/service at a given price

Supply - willingness and ability to sell a goods/service at a given price.

 

Every policy affects 1 or more of each of the four variables simultaneously, 1 demand willingness, 2 demand ability, 3 supply willingness and 4 supply ability.

 

A buyer cannot transact if the price exceeds the demand ability, and he will choose not to transact if the price exceeds the demand willingness. The reverse is true for suppliers as well.

 

But price is highly dynamic in our highly connected country. We cannot run from international policies on currency rates and interest rates. 2013 to 2016, what has changed?

 

post-TDSR policies

    (April 2016): zero appreciation of SGD, prevention of HDB decoupling for avoidance of ABSD,    

    (Jun 2015): Raising of income eligibility for HDB and EC

 

pre-TDSR policies http://www.srx.com.sg/cooling-measures

 

9 December, 2013 1. Reduction of Cancellation Fees From 20% to 5% for Executive Condominiums. 2. Resale Levy for Second-Timer Applicants
  - Formerly second timers are not required to pay a levy. This is applicable to only new EC land sales which are launched on or after 9th December 2013. 3. Revision of Mortgage Loan Terms
  - From a previous mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) level of 60% to now 30% of a borrower's gross monthly income. The MSR cap will apply to EC purchases from 10th December 2013 onwards. 27 August, 2013 1. Singapore Permanent Resident Households need to wait three years from the date of obtaining SPR status, before they can buy a resale HDB flat. 2. Maximum tenure for HDB housing loans is reduced from 30 years to 25 years. The Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) limit is reduced from 35% to 30% of the borrower's gross monthly income. 3. Maximum tenure of new housing loans and re-financing facilities granted by financial institutions for the purchase of HDB flats (including DBSS flats) is reduced from 35 years to 30 years. News loans with tenure exceeding 25 years and up to 30 years will be subject to tighter LTV limits. 29 June, 2013 1. TDSR: Financial institutions are required to consider borrowers' other outgoing debt obligations when granting property loans. His total monthly repayments of his debt obligations should not exceed 60 per cent of his gross monthly income. 2. In particular, MAS requires:
  -borrowers named on a property loan to be the mortgagors of the residential property for which the loan is taken; 
  -"guarantors" who are standing guarantee for borrowers otherwise assessed by the financial institutions at the point of application for the housing loan not to meet the TDSR threshold for a property loan to be brought in as co-borrowers; and 
  -in the case of joint borrowers, that financial institutions use the income-weighted average age of borrowers when applying the rules on loan tenure. 12 January, 2013 1. ABSD: Citizens pay 7/10% on second/third purchase (from 0/3%); Permanent Residents (PR) pay 5/10% for first/second purchase (from 0/3%); foreigners and non-individuals now pay 15%. 2. LTV for second/third loan now 50/40% from 60%; non-individuals' LTV now 20% (from 40%). 3. Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR) for HDB loans now capped at 35% of gross monthly income (from 40%); MSR for loans from financial institutions capped at 30%. 4. PRs no longer allowed to rent out entire HDB flat. 6 October, 2012 1. Mortgage tenures capped at a maximum of 35 years. 2. For loans longer than 30 years or for loans that extend beyond retirement age of 65 years: LTV lowered to 60% for first mortgage and to 40% for second and subsequent mortgages. 3. LTV for non-individuals lowered to 40%. 8 December, 2011 1. ABSD introduced for further cooling measures:
  -Foreigners and non-individuals pay 10%, PRs buying second and subsequent property pay 3%, Singaporeans buying third and subsequent property pay 3%. 2. Developers purchasing more than four residential units and following through on intention to develop residential properties for sale would be waived ABSD
  -To qualify, developers have to produce proof of development and sale within five years. 14 January, 2011 1. Holding period for imposition of SSD increased to four years from three. 2. SSD rates raised to 16%, 12%, 8% and 4% of consideration. 3. LTV lowered to 60% from 70% for second property. 4. LTV for non-individual residential purchasers capped at 50%. 30 August, 2010 1. Holding period for imposition of SSD increased to three years from one. 2. Minimum cash payments raised to 10% from 5% for buyers with one or more outstanding housing loans. 3. LTV lowered to 70% from 80% for second properties. 20 February, 2010 1. Introduction of SSD for residential property and land sold within one year of purchase. 2. LTV lowered to 80% from 90% on all housing loans except HDB loans. 14 September, 2009 1. Interest absorption scheme (deferment of instalments until TOP) and interest-only housing loans (interest payment only until TOP) were scrapped for all private properties.

 

Pent-up demand.  Is it real?

 

If you read the property news regularly, you might come across this phrase "pent-up demand" used by some property developers in explaining why their particular developments are doing well in sales. 

 

Looking through this thread, I note that some bros are sceptical about this "pent-up demand" and attribute this to "market talk to push up sales", or simply "rubbish".  Are our bros right?

 

While it sounds silly to analyse this phrase (there is nothing else to analyse, is it?), I will like to bring this into a discussion, for this weekend entertainment, if you like.

 

In simple terms, "pent-up demand" refers to a demand that has not been able to be expressed or fulfilled, due to a reason. In our context, this refers to someone wanting to own a private property, but has been held back due to a variety of reasons, ranging from "scare to lose money on this one", "what happens if I lose a job and cannot afford the loan payments down the road", "why must I pay the buyer's ABSD?", "still waiting for a right development to come along", "Not located in my desired area", "I think the price is too high for my liking", etc.  So many are sitting on the fence, waiting for some event to happen, such as removal of the cooling measures, property market turn-around, developers cutting prices, etc.

 

Let me bring an analogy using the stock market.  The stock market is like the property market (except that the latter transacted volumes are lesser).  Everyone is happily trading, buying low and selling high, the next buyer is buying high and selling even higher, so on and so forth.  

 

Many investors started to open margin trading accounts (these are accounts that do not need to make full payment on shares purchased; it is a leverage tool in which a small amount of your own money, let's say x dollars, is used to buy 5x dollars of shares - the 4x dollars are borrowed from the stock brokerage that you opened the margin account with).  In a rising market, margin trading poses no problem, as the profits obtained from buying and selling shares is more than enough to pay off the interest payment incurred due to the borrowing of 4x dollars for the short duration of buy/sell. 

 

Due to the stock market's exuberance and fearing a stock market bubble will happen, the government decides to step in.  No more margin trading allowed (cooling measure).  Each share purchase must be fully funded by its purchaser.  The stock market's trading dries up and share prices go into a tailspin as demand for shares dropped dramatically. For 3 years, the stock market becomes rather subdued, as transaction volumes hit a 10-year low.  Suddenly, the government announced that margin trading is allowed once more.  The stock market becomes alive again.  Buyers swamped and snapped up shares like there is no tomorrow.  This is pent-up demand in action.

 

 

Coming back to the property market, after the government re-iterated that cooling measures are here to stay a while longer, are the recent success of sales for Cairnhill Nine, OUE Twin Peaks and Sturdee Residences considered as a pent-up demand?  

 

Let's look at the facts and examine if there is a pent-up demand (as defined by me, using the stock market analogy, Sorry!).

 

A recent article in Property guru website.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Developer sales down 36.2% from year ago

 

http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/property-management-news/2016/5/125228/developer-sales-down-36-2-from-year-ago

 

UPDATED: New private home sales in Singapore, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), fell by 11.6 percent to 745 units in April 2016, compared to the 843 units sold in the previous month, according to latest data published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Monday (16 May).

 

Year-on-year, developer sales plunged by 36.2 percent from the 1,167 units sold in April last year, data showed.

This comes despite the number of units launched rising to 900 in April from 682 units in March, noted DTZ.

 

“As the economy becomes more uncertain, and (with) the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) weighing on buyers’ decisions, more buyers prefer to stay put unless they find the project very attractive, in terms of its pricing and location.

“Notwithstanding, the release of May and June’s data will give a better indication on whether there is a further weakening of demand or not,” he added.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Statistics do not lie. 

 

Trading volumes (stock market), oops, I mean transacted volumes of the private properties have dropped year-on-year.   Based on my definition, I will hardly call the recent sales a pent-up demand.  Perhaps I am too harsh here.  Let's call it a pent-up demand from a tiny minority.

 

With the cooling measures still in place, we have to open our eyes big and see the overall big picture; lest we got blinded by what is happening right in front of us.  With the impending launch of the highly anticipated Stars of Kovan and Gem (Toa Payoh), let us wait for URA's next quarterly release of property prices and digest the sales for April to June 2016, before we make a judgement call.

 

The real pent-up demand

This will come when the government revises or removes some of the more punitive cooling measures.  When it happens, will history repeat itself?  Will we see a return of long queues of people lining up to book a unit (like in the 1990s) at launch time?       

 

Edited May 21, 2016 by Showster

[Throttle2]

Knn, dont know i jobless or you guys jobless.

 

Got so much time to write so much and analyse so much.

Siao ah?!

 

Pent up demand?

How pent up is pent up?

Desire without ability is just pent up dreams, not demand.

The supply is enough to eat all up.

 

Muayhahahahaha

[Wt_know]

i have a pent up demand for porky 911 since 10 years ago ... still penting up ....

 

Knn, dont know i jobless or you guys jobless.

Got so much time to write so much and analyse so much.
Siao ah?!

Pent up demand?
How pent up is pent up?
Desire without ability is just pent up dreams, not demand.
The supply is enough to eat all up.

Muayhahahahaha