Is it time to bail out of USD?

[Solar]

i had a discussion with a friend over lunch.. he got some 20k worth of unit trust in USD.

recent retreating of the USD has got him thinking whether to bail out, or to stick on until the new US president is installed (likely no more Bush)

 

my suggestion is to get out.. cos it can be years for it to revert back to 1USD=1.7SGD.

or worse, 1USD=1SGD, then he will cry till no tears

 

what do you think?

[Yeobh]

Bush has served 2 terms and therefore not eligible for nomination again. Mrs Clinton if elected will be like Arroyo. If they elect a black president, that potential candidate just do not haver enough History and World politic lessons to start work immediately - he will be like our Pinkie - need to understudy for few years.

 

So It looks like the situation is bad, even if Bush party member wins the election, US has to continue to finance the fighting in Iraq & Middle East.If the fighting is over, US still has to pay very heavy compensations to re-built the countries.Unless US can increase its export in capital equipment , aeroplanes , supercompters & arms if not thier currency superiority will be overtaken by Euro currency.

[Albeniz]

or worse, 1USD=1SGD, then he will cry till no tears

 

If the economy is so bad till the US currency is further greatly weakened, Singapore would also be badly affected by the repercussions.

 

I think it will not be as bad as 1USD = 1SGD.

 

A lot of countries will not allow US dollars to depreciate so badly because US owes them a lot of money. If US dollars become banana money, a lot of countries will go bankrupt.

 

Pardon my lay-man terms.

[Sapience]

why convert back to SGD and suffer the forex loss? perhaps you can consider keeping the USD if unit trust matures and put them in USD denominated fixed deposits which currently give much better interests than local SGD interests.

[Yeobh]

China has just lately move some of thier reserve to Euro currency. Every countries over the years have reduce thier exposure in US $ even Venuzuela ( one of the biggest oil exporter)is pushing for oil trading @ international level to be quoted not in US $.

 

I believe EC, India Rupee & China RMB will grow over the next few years. s$ will also ( have to) grow in tendem to those currencies so that our imports will not become to costly.My bet is s$ will become the informal ASEAN common $

[Jchuacl]

In what sense will the election of Mrs Clinton be like Arroyo?

[Dtvox]

Rather than just looking at USD, perhaps we should take a look at SGD as well. It is not beneficial for our economy if our currency keep appreciating.

 

Currently it is high due to the current economic pressure and the reluctance to push up interest rates. Come next budget, the monetary policy might differ and the focus might shift to interest rates instead...

[Yeobh]

One was elected because her father was once a President, the other trying her luck because her hubby was once a President.

[Yeobh]

If the US economy get from bad to worst, I reckon they will have to reduce interest rate to keep the economy afford.

[Yeobh]

More than 70% of our foodstuffs are imported, if s$ weaken, the cost of living will shoot up.

[Jchuacl]

Ok, no doubt she'll riding that opportunity and IMHO, the possibility of her getting the presidency is quite high especially when Bill did do quite a good job during his term, from the economic and diplomacy sense (ignore the Monica's case).

 

Ignoring all the sub prime issues which we are seeing now, next year will have a number of important elections round the world which may boost up the world economoy faster than we think. Until we have a clearer picture then, my take would be to hold on to USD.

[Sturtles]

For some reason, there are a significant amount of americans who object to hillary, and love bush for what he did, to take revenge for the twin towers, to eliminate the unknown enemy and restore the pride of america, all the patriotic rhetoric.

 

Hillary will have a tough fight; kind of like chen shui bian in taiwan, rational people want him to step down and get lost, but majority of voters are ignorant farmers leading a simple life. Patriotism, subsidies, better standard of living are things they can understand better. Much like singaporeans, though much more educated, so they might as well be farmers