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If Market Continues to Drop ... How many need to LELONG

Meecar

By Meecar,
in Lite & EZ

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Trex101

Trex101

3rd Gear

I can leave anytime now that my PR is firmed but plan is next Sep or Oct maybe. Very fluid now, need to find out alot of things before moving over like kids schooling and housing.

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Seaweed

Seaweed

1st Gear

when share is going up....no one is a loser...everyone are winners....and this is the thing that is killing because everyone can get so happy and excited because it is sure win when going up.....a simple example...A buy 1 share at $1.... Then B buy from A at $1.5....C buy from B for $2...D buy from C at $2.5...and continue because they see the price keep going up....it fall when it become too high...no taker for the share....or due to some bad news....alot wanted to sell at the same time...then it is a demand and supply theory...many want to sell but no buyer....so seller keep lower their selling price untill a buyer buys...everyone then see the price going then...then start selling and push the price down lor...then everyone will be a loser liao lor....this is just a simple illustration...of course the real world is much more complicated... [laugh][laugh]

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Genie47

Genie47

1st Gear
(edited)

It's crazy. People really are overselling.

 

If you want to get into the market. This might be it. Remember, as long as the stock hits your price, just get it. Then hold. Make sure it is a dividend yielding one. Confirm will get dividend AND capital appreciation if your time horizon is 5yrs and more.

Edited by Genie47
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Sony

Sony

1st Gear

To add on to yours, I would say that it would be prudent to buy gingerly and in bullet form.

 

At least this will cushion again any further fall which could be likely with all the punters hitting exit.

 

For some stocks, we might be able to see lights at tunnel by year end. but for some, horizon of 3-5years is about right [sly]

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Apollo

Apollo

1st Gear
To add on to yours, I would say that it would be prudent to buy gingerly and in bullet form.

 

At least this will cushion again any further fall which could be likely with all the punters hitting exit.

 

For some stocks, we might be able to see lights at tunnel by year end. but for some, horizon of 3-5years is about right sly.gif

 

the light at the end of a tunnel can b an oncoming train....

 

 

TS7TestTrainInTunnel1March06.jpg

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Sony

Sony

1st Gear

It's anyone's guess... no risk no gain..

 

 

We can sit here all day waiting for price to drop...

just like some is waiting for HDB to release more flat..

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Check13

Check13

3rd Gear
Actually, I feel this is just a temporary situation with over-reaction to the sub-prime issue. But perhaps I am an optimist.

 

As the market was gaining from strength to strength almost very day recently, most people were already on the edge.

 

Do you guys think we should pull out of the stock market now, soon or just leave to fate.

 

[:)]

 

Look fwd, not bwd at what had happened. By that i mean give it a tot on what else can happen due to this credit and subprime issue. If you remember, it was subprime which lead us to this credit issue.

 

Now, the Fed had already pumped in $ as a ST support, very much like wat the asian govt was trying to do (buying their own currency with reserves while mkt is shorting it like crazy) during the crisis in 97. End of the day, there's only so much the govt or CB can do. Of course, we all knew the reserves were insufficient at all and the rest was history.

 

Fed knew this is a much bigger issue to warrant injection of liquidity. So my view is the Fed will lower rates very soon. This will lead to a softening of the US$ and a strengthening of the Yen. There's already talk BOJ may actually inc rates due to internal ecomony dynamics. But this will speed up the effect of dollar down/Yen up even further.

 

What do you think will happen next? If you need me to tell you then you should really leave your holdings to fate.

 

Of course, my above view can be totally wrong! But at least i don't leave it to fate. :)

 

like i said 3 days ago, Yen carry trade unwinding will happen.

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Check13

Check13

3rd Gear
Sabian,

very fair statement on subprime....

subprime is no big deal, the stock & bond market has blown it so big to force weak holder to cut their lost, market will definitely come back in few weeks time, bcos is not a 'real' big impact issue....

If can hold, it will come back....

if got cash, can buy when it hits low again....

Time will tell, in just about 1-2 months time, see for yourself...

 

aiyoyo, u and Sabian deserved to be shot [rifle] if you still think the mkt is down because of subprime. Yes, subprime got the ball rolling, but it's not about subprime anymore. Till now you still don't get it??!! [dizzy]

 

It's about repricing of risk! it's about liquidity crunch! it's about confidence! And now, most recently today, it's about currency! It's about Yen carry trade! It's about everything else except subprime!

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Trex101

Trex101

3rd Gear
(edited)

I would guess that now is the time for reaping profit be it shorting or offload of shares by fund manager. There's still alot more ground to go, so hold your horses and wait 1-2 mths more and see.

 

Oh, for those gambler, can choose to buy some banking stocks and wait for the buy-in of short position. Best is to play MSCI index point, faster and fiercer.

Edited by Trex101
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Sony

Sony

1st Gear

Depends on the time horizon a person can take.. some look as far as 4days.. some look at 5years..

 

I look forward to year end [sly]

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Check13

Check13

3rd Gear

In the spirit of sharing, extract from CNN.

 

Here's a 10-point guide to what we know and don't know about the troubles, and what the repercussions are likely to be:

 

Why did America's subprime mortgage woes have such a big impact on world financial markets?

 

Because these mortgages were lumped together in packages and sold as asset-backed securities all over the world, particularly in Europe. Often the initial securities were themselves put into new packages, leveraged up and resold as so-called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). They are a sort of derivative play on the underlying mortgages, just as futures and options are a play on stocks and commodities. Big banks have whole securitization departments who create these instruments. They do so to profit from the difference between the long-term returns these investment vehicles produce and their more plain vanilla short-term borrowing, and to earn fees.

 

Who bought them?

 

Everyone, and that's the problem. The CDO market has exploded in recent years: More than $100 billion worth of structured cash CDOs were issued in the fourth quarter of last year alone, according to CreditFlux Data+, a London firm that tracks them (and that doesn't include the even more arcane "synthetic" CDOs). Banks, institutional investors and hedge funds have been the main customers, but some retail investors have also bought into them through the asset-backed securities, or ABS, funds that some of the biggest European banks sell to the public. Everyone who bought these securities was given the same pitch, namely that they were a relatively safe bet, since much of the paper had AAA ratings, but offered higher returns than regular corporate bonds.

 

So what went wrong?

 

The number of delinquencies in the U.S. subprime mortgage market has been rising and is now substantially larger than anyone expected - about 14 percent of the total, up from about 10 percent in 2004 and 2005. That means there's a strong likelihood that some of the securities holders, especially those where the underlying mortgages were taken out in the past couple of years, are sitting on losses.

 

Those troubles have been massively compounded by the aggressive use of leverage in CDO packages. When U.S. blue chip financial players like Bear Stearns and then a variety of European banks began reporting problems, panic quickly gripped the markets. That turned into a vicious circle: These debt instruments have now become impossible to price because nobody wants to buy them any longer. And since they can't be priced, the size of the losses aren't clear, which in turn has given rise to more rumors about financial players in trouble. Banks in continental Europe especially simply stopped lending to one another, which is why the liquidity dried up in the credit markets as a whole and the European Central Bank had to jump in.

 

How big is the problem, really?

 

Nobody is quite sure. Patrick Artus, an economist at Natixis in Paris, reckons the total damage inflicted by subprime woes is a relatively manageable $45 billion, which is the difference between the expected rate of mortgage delinquencies and the current much higher rate. Another French bank that is an important player in the derivatives market, Soci

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